The data doesn't lie. A look at the performance of major token launches in 2025 paints a brutal and unequivocal picture for altcoin investors. The narrative of "buy and hold" on new listings has been completely shattered this cycle.
The Staggering Numbers:
The provided dataset reveals a catastrophic trend.Out of the numerous projects listed, nearly every single one is trading significantly below its initial Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV). The "Change in FDV" column is a sea of red, with declines commonly ranging from -80% to an astonishing -94%.
Projects like Syndicate (SYND, -93.6%), Animecoin (ANIME, -93.6%), and Berachain (BERA, -93.2%) have seen their valuations evaporate. Even higher-profile launches like Plasma (XPL, -89.9%) and Falcon Finance (FF, -85.8%) have not been immune. The median drop is alarmingly close to the -90% mark.
Key Takeaways & Market Implications:
1. FDV Fantasy vs. Market Reality: Many projects launched with astronomically high Fully Diluted Valuations, pricing in years, if not decades, of perfect future growth. The market has aggressively repriced this excessive optimism.
2. The "H1/H2" Pump & Dump? While not explicit, the severe underperformance across both "H1" and "H2" cohorts suggests a broad-based failure of the "VC launch model" to sustain prices post-TGE (Token Generation Event) and initial hype.
3. Liquidity is King, But Not a Savior: Some tokens maintain decent 24H volume (e.g., XPL, BERA), proving there is trading interest. However, this liquidity is primarily facilitating sell-side pressure and capital flight, not sustaining prices.
4. A Macro Warning Sign: This trend is a powerful indicator of overall market sentiment towards new, unproven altcoins. Capital is scarce, patience is thin, and the tolerance for speculative narratives is at a low point.
Trader's Perspective:
For traders,this data validates a risk-off approach towards newly launched altcoins. The initial listing pump has consistently been a trap, followed by a long, relentless downtrend. Strategies focusing on shorting rallies, strict stop-losses on longs, and avoiding "diamond hands" mentality on new tokens have clearly outperformed blind holding.
The question posed — "Who still doubts shorting and the bad idea of holding alts?" — is rhetorical in the face of this evidence. Until the fundamental dynamics of launches (valuation, vesting schedules, tokenomics) change, the path of least resistance for new alts appears to be down.
Conclusion:
The 2025 launch cohort serves as a stark lesson in valuation discipline and market cycles.While some projects may eventually recover, the data mandates extreme caution. In the current environment, aggressive risk management and skepticism are not just prudent—they are essential for survival. The era of easy gains from simply holding new token listings is, for now, decisively over.
