Bitcoin’s Year-End Test: What AI Forecasts Say About a Santa Rally
Bitcoin ($BTC ) traded in a tight range on Monday, oscillating between $87,000 and just over $88,000. The price action suggests early signs of stabilization, even as broader momentum over recent weeks has leaned bearish.
As the year draws to a close, a familiar seasonal debate has returned: can Bitcoin still deliver a Santa Rally before 2025 ends?
To assess the chances of a late-December bounce, three major AI models—ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini—were asked to evaluate Bitcoin’s recent price behavior, historical seasonality, and prevailing market conditions.
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Santa Rally and Thin Liquidity
In traditional equity markets, a Santa Rally refers to gains during the final trading days of December and the first sessions of January. Although Bitcoin trades 24/7, the term is commonly applied to the late-December to early-January period, when thinner liquidity can exaggerate price moves.
All three AI models agree on one point: 2025 has been a highly volatile year for $BTC . The asset experienced sharp rallies, extended consolidation phases, and new highs earlier in the year, followed by a sustained pullback in the fourth quarter. Where they differ is in how much upside potential remains in the final weeks.
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Gemini Sees Better Odds for a Bounce
Among the three, Gemini offers the most optimistic outlook. It characterizes 2025 as a year that began under pressure, surged to record highs mid-year, and cooled significantly in Q4.
After peaking above $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin retraced into the low $80,000 range before stabilizing between roughly $85,000 and $90,000 heading into late December. Gemini assigns about a 55% probability to a Santa Rally, defining it as a move above $95,000.
That said, Gemini does not expect $BTC to revisit all-time highs before year-end, instead pointing to a short-term relief rally driven by sentiment shifts and positioning rather than a full trend reversal.
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Grok and ChatGPT Urge Caution
Grok takes a more conservative stance, emphasizing muted volatility, late-year ETF outflows, and Bitcoin’s continued distance from its October peak. While stabilization is visible, Grok views the market as consolidating rather than gearing up for a breakout.
Based on historical December performance—especially outside of strong bull markets—Grok places the odds of a meaningful Santa Rally at 30% to 40%.