XRP, currently the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, has seen a roughly 50% pullback from its peak of $3.65 earlier this year, a trend that's been echoed across the crypto market.
Amidst this fluctuation, a new AI simulation model has generated price projections for the coming year, offering investors a clearer view.
Market researcher Sam Daodu recently shared findings from a Monte Carlo simulation of XRP's price trajectory, utilizing 10,000 pathways to encompass a wide range of potential outcomes.
Rather than a single forecast, the results present a probability distribution, complete with mean, median, and percentile data.
Daodu noted that the XRP modeling results indicate a spectrum of possibilities. The average price across the 10,000 simulations is $2.78, surpassing current levels.
Conversely, the median price, at $1.88, suggests that half of the predicted results are below $2. The mean is skewed by a small number of high estimates, while the median provides a more accurate representation of the most probable scenarios.
Daodu's analysis of the 25th and 75th percentiles—the interquartile range—was undertaken to ascertain a more probable price range. The simulation results indicate that 25% of the scenarios project XRP prices below $1.04, and 75% below $3.40.
Approximately 60% of the scenarios forecast XRP's price within the $1.04 to $3.40 range by 2026, with a median of $1.88.
A 10% Probability of Falling Below $0.59
Furthermore, the research also presents the most favorable outcomes within the upper tail of the distribution.
Approximately one in ten scenarios project end-of-year prices exceeding $5.90, the 90th percentile.
The analyst posits that to achieve new all-time highs approaching $6, we need consistent institutional inflows via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) exceeding $50 million daily throughout 2026, greater adoption of XRP by banks for cross-border transactions, and regulatory certainty without significant obstacles.
Yet, the simulation also highlights potential pitfalls. The worst 10% of outcomes suggest XRP could fall below $0.59, implying a 10% probability of a value loss exceeding 70% by 2026.
Stricter bitcoin custody rules and SEC settlements could be fueling this pessimism.
Daodu believes that unmet expectations for XRP's utility could erode investor confidence, leading to a price decline.
XRP saw a 2% dip over the last day, though CoinMarketcap data indicates it's still trading within the $1.9 range that analysts expect to hold until next year.
