Bitcoin has broken its long term bullish structure on the daily and weekly charts. Until price reclaims key trend lines with volume, rebounds should be treated as corrective moves within a bearish medium term structure.
The 89,500 to 91,000 dollar zone is the current short term decision range. Price behavior around this area will determine whether consolidation extends or downside pressure accelerates.
Low holiday liquidity and macro event risk increase the probability of false breakouts. Strict risk management and disciplined execution remain critical in the current environment.
BTC MID TERM TREND WEAKENS SHORT TERM CONSOLIDATION HIDES DIRECTIONAL RISK | GUEST ANALYSIS
Market Analyst Conaldo holds a Master’s degree in Financial Statistics from Columbia University in the United States. Since university, he has focused on quantitative trading in US equities and later expanded into Bitcoin and other digital assets. Through real trading practice, he built a systematic quantitative trading and risk control framework. He has strong data driven sensitivity to market volatility and is committed to long term development in professional trading with a focus on steady returns. He will publish weekly deep dives on BTC technical structure, macro conditions, and capital flows. He will also review live strategies and highlight upcoming key events for reference.
CORE SUMMARY
• From a macro technical perspective as shown in Chart Three below, on the Bitcoin daily chart, the long term bullish uptrend line that started in late 2022 and the downward trend line that defines the recent correction from the October 2025 high are approaching convergence. The market is currently in a repair and consolidation phase after breaking the long term trend. Bitcoin price is under dual resistance. Before price can break above both trend lines with strong volume, all upward moves should be treated as rebounds within a bearish structure. Whether these two key trend lines are decisively broken will serve as the final basis for judging the medium term market direction.
• Core view validation. The key judgment proposed last week that the market would likely enter a consolidation and adjustment phase closely matched actual price behavior. Bulls and bears repeatedly contested the 87,500 to 89,000 dollar area. The mid week low at 84,456 dollars deviated from the predicted upper bound of the support zone at 83,500 dollars by about 1.18 percent.
• Strategy execution validation. Last week, trades strictly followed the predefined strategy. Four operations were completed with total accumulated return of 2.14 percent.
The following sections provide a detailed review of market forecasts, strategy execution, and specific trade processes.
I. BITCOIN MARKET REVIEW LAST WEEK 12.15 TO 12.21 1. REVIEW OF LAST WEEK FORECAST AND STRATEGY
In last week’s forward looking analysis, it was clearly stated that the market would likely enter a consolidation and adjustment phase. The 87,500 to 89,000 dollar area was defined as the key observation zone. The outcome of the battle in this area would directly determine short term direction. If this zone were decisively broken, it would further affect the strength and depth of the subsequent correction. Below is the strategy review and explanation.
1.1 MARKET FORECAST REVIEW
• Core resistance levels. First resistance at 92,500 to 94,500 dollars. Second resistance at 96,500 to 98,500 dollars.
• Core support levels. First support at 87,500 to 89,000 dollars. Second support at 80,000 to 83,500 dollars.
1.2 STRATEGY REVIEW
• Medium term strategy. Maintain around 65 percent medium term position on the short side.
• Short term strategy. To respond to price movement, two short term plans A and B were prepared. Based on actual market evolution, Plan B was selected and executed.
• Entry. After price broke below and confirmed the 87,500 to 89,000 dollar area, establish a 30 percent short position.
• Risk control. Stop loss set above 89,000 dollars.
• Exit. When price fell into the 80,000 to 83,500 dollar area and showed support, close all short positions to take profit. 2. LAST WEEK FOUR SUCCESSFUL SHORT TERM TRADES
Following the plan, four short term trades were completed as shown in Chart One. Total return reached 2.14 percent. Details are reviewed below.
Bitcoin 30 minute candlestick chart using momentum quantitative model and spread trading model
2.1 TRADE SUMMARY
Trade 1
Dec 16, 00:30
86,902 USD
30%
Short
Dec 16, 16:30
86,270 USD
+0.73%
Trade 2
Dec 17, 10:30
87,306 USD
30%
Short
Dec 17, 19:30
86,960 USD
+0.39%
Trade 3
Dec 19, 02:30
86,347 USD
30%
Short
Dec 19, 10:00
85,468 USD
+1.02%
Trade 4
Dec 20, 00:00
87,903 USD
30%
Short
Dec 20, 04:00
87,903 USD
0.00%
2.2 SHORT TERM TRADE REVIEW
• First trade profit 0.73 percent. We strictly followed the principle of shorting with trend after an effective break of key levels. When conditions were triggered, the spread trading model also issued a top signal. A 30 percent short position was established and later closed near the previous support zone.
• Second and third trades combined profit 1.41 percent. Based on the pattern of shorting rebounds near core resistance. When price tested the 87,500 to 89,000 dollar area and stalled, both models issued confirming signals. These two trades were executed successfully.
• Fourth trade break even. The entry logic was the same as the prior two trades. It is important to note that once floating profit reached 1 percent, the stop loss was moved to the entry price. As a result, this trade was closed at break even.
II. QUANTITATIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON MULTIPLE MODELS
Based on last week’s market behavior, multiple analytical dimensions are applied to examine internal Bitcoin structure.
Bitcoin weekly candlestick chart using momentum quantitative model and sentiment quantitative model
1. WEEKLY CHART ANALYSIS
• Momentum quantitative model. After last week’s pullback, both momentum lines remain below the zero axis. Although recent rebound weeks did not show significant expansion of negative momentum bars, the overall structure remains weak. Further downside risk should be monitored.
Momentum model indication. Downside probability high.
• Sentiment quantitative model. Blue sentiment line at 50.46 with zero strength. Yellow sentiment line at 23.16 with zero strength. Peak value at zero.
Sentiment model indication. Pressure and support index neutral.
• Digital monitoring model. The chart shows that price has been below the bull bear dividing line for five consecutive weeks. The probability of a valid breakdown is increasing. Short term bottom signal above nine has not yet appeared.
Overall conclusion. Bitcoin remains in a downward trend. On the weekly level, it has entered a bearish market phase. Adjustment risk remains elevated.
Bitcoin daily candlestick chart
2. DAILY CHART ANALYSIS
• Momentum quantitative model. During last week, the two momentum lines below the zero axis went through repeated crossovers from golden cross to dead cross and back. Trading volume did not expand and positive momentum bars remained weak.
Momentum model indication. Intense battle between bulls and bears. Long momentum remains weak.
• Sentiment quantitative model. After Sunday close, blue sentiment line at 17 with zero strength. Yellow sentiment line at 45 with zero strength.
Sentiment model indication. Pressure and support index neutral.
Conclusion. On the daily level, the market remains bearish. Short term price action is likely to stay choppy.
III. MARKET FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK 12.22 TO 12.28 1. This week is expected to remain in a wide range consolidation. The core observation zone is 89,500 to 91,000 dollars. The outcome here will determine short term direction.
• If decisively broken. Adjustment strength is likely to increase. The correction may deepen and extend in time.
• If price holds. The market may continue a rebound within consolidation. Upside space is expected to be limited. 2. Core resistance levels
• First resistance zone. 89,500 to 91,000 dollars.
• Second resistance zone. 93,000 to 94,500 dollars.
• Key resistance. Around 97,000 dollars. 3. Core support levels
• First support. 86,500 to 87,500 dollars.
• Second support. 83,500 to 84,500 dollars.
• Key support. Around 80,000 dollars.
IV. TRADING STRATEGY FOR THIS WEEK EXCLUDING UNEXPECTED NEWS 12.22 TO 12.28 1. Medium term strategy. Maintain around 65 percent medium term short position. 2. Short term strategy. Use 30 percent position with defined stop losses. Seek spread trading opportunities based on support and resistance. Use 30 minute timeframe. 3. Focus on the battle around 89,500 to 91,000 dollars. Two plans are prepared.
PLAN A IF THE ZONE HOLDS
• Entry. If price rebounds to 93,000 to 94,500 dollars and shows resistance, establish a 30 percent short position.
• Risk control. Stop loss above 96,000 dollars.
• Exit. When price falls back to 89,500 to 91,000 dollars and shows support, close all short positions.
PLAN B IF THE ZONE IS BROKEN
• Entry. After price breaks below and confirms, establish a 30 percent short position.
• Risk control. Stop loss above 92,000 dollars.
• Exit. When price falls to 83,500 to 84,500 dollars and shows support, consider partial or full profit taking.
V. SPECIAL RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES 1. At entry. Set the initial stop loss immediately. 2. At 1 percent profit. Move stop loss to entry price to protect capital. 3. At 2 percent profit. Move stop loss to the 1 percent profit level. 4. Ongoing tracking. For every additional 1 percent gain, move stop loss by 1 percent to lock in profits.
The 1 percent trigger can be adjusted based on individual risk preference and volatility.
VI. MACRO OUTLOOK AND KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK 12.22 TO 12.28 CHRISTMAS WEEK 1. Holiday trading hours reduce liquidity
US equities will close early on Wednesday and remain closed on Thursday. Holiday effects combined with year end settlement will reduce overall liquidity. Prices may be more easily driven by sentiment or one sided flows. Be cautious of false breakouts and amplified volatility under low volume. 2. Rising expectations for Fed chair nomination
Markets are watching whether Donald Trump announces the next Federal Reserve chair during the holiday period. Kevin Hassett currently leads in nomination probability. His policy stance is viewed as favoring predictable and gradual adjustments.
If confirmed, short term rate expectations and risk sentiment may stabilize. An unexpected candidate could trigger volatility in rates and the dollar. 3. US Q3 data finalization tests soft landing narrative
Revised US third quarter GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE data will be released on Tuesday. These will confirm whether economic resilience and inflation trends align with prior expectations.
Moderate revisions support current rate cut pricing. Strong upward revisions could push long term yields higher. 4. Employment data as marginal year end signal
Wednesday’s initial jobless claims lack trend significance but still serve as a supplementary signal around holidays.
Current bias suggests stability rather than deterioration. Market impact is expected to be limited. 5. Bank of Japan signals and global liquidity
Comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and November unemployment data will influence expectations around Japan’s policy normalization pace.
If yen volatility increases, it could affect global risk sentiment, including US equities and crypto markets.
Financial markets change rapidly. All analysis and strategies must be adjusted dynamically. All views, models, and strategies presented here are personal trading records only and do not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk. Conduct your own research.
〈BTC Mid Term Trend Weakens Short Term Consolidation Hides Directional Risk | Guest Analysis〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
