State of 2025 Token Launches a reality check (by Memento Research)
Memento Research reviewed 118 token launches in 2025 and the data is brutal.
Nearly 85% of tokens are trading below their TGE valuation.
The median outcome since launch is -71% FDV and -67% market cap.
Only 15% of launches are green. The rest are deep in the red.
The most striking result: 28 projects launched at ≥ $1B FDV
0% of them are up today
Median drawdown: -81%
Big launches didn’t grow into their valuations they dragged the entire year down. That’s why the FDV-weighted index (-61.5%) looks far worse than the equal weighted one (-33.3%).
Category breakdown shows more pain than promise:
Infra & AI made up ~60% of launches and were punished hardest (-72% to -82% medians)
DeFi quietly had the best hit rate (32% green)
Perp DEXs stood out, but largely due to a single outlier
Gaming, stablecoins, and DeSi offered little relief
The clean takeaway is simple: TGE in 2025 was not early.
For most projects, it marked the top.
Lower-FDV launches were the only group with a meaningful survival rate, while higher starting valuations consistently led to deeper repricing.
2025 wasn’t just a bad year for alts.
It was a valuation reset where hype lost to math, and size became a liability.
