Lower than levels seen during the 2022 to 2023 bear market
The last comparable period was February 2024
At that time sentiment was similar Participation was thin Prices were compressed Most traders had written the sector off
Shortly after that point Several large memecoins saw outsized moves Not because fundamentals changed But because positioning and attention were already exhausted
The current setup
Today many major memecoins are down between 80 and 99 percent from highs
Liquidity is thin Volumes are muted Public interest is low
The prevailing narrative is exhaustion That the sector has already played out
This mirrors earlier cycle behavior
What matters here
This is not a claim that a rally is guaranteed And it is not a call to buy
Historically Extreme pessimism in a crowded retail sector Often coincides with low positioning
When capital rotates It tends to move where expectations are already minimal
The open question
If memecoins are considered finished Who is still positioned to sell
And if no one is paying attention What happens when attention returns even briefly $DOGE $SHIB
Before the Fall: The Undisclosed Agreement That Preceded the $LIBRA Collapse
New records suggest a quiet agreement preceded the $LIBRA collapse
This is not a finding of guilt It is a reconstruction of events and timing
The meeting On January 30 2025 Hayden Davis met Javier Milei inside Casa Rosada
The meeting lasted roughly twenty minutes Official logs list the topic as blockchain
That day a confidential agreement was signed The agreement ThE document named Davis an ad honorem advisor to the Argentine state The scope covered blockchain and artificial intelligence
Areas listed included • Document digitization • Smart contracts • Technical training
The contract waived fees It imposed strict confidentiality clauses
The agreement was not publicly disclosed The timing Two weeks later on February 14 The $LIBRA token launched in Dallas After a public message from Milei The token price rose sharply Then collapsed
The message was deleted Milei later said he was unaware of the project details Transfers under review
On the day of the Casa Rosada meeting Wallets linked to Davis sent more than $1M to an Argentine intermediary
Before the token launch Investigators identified about $5.7M in crypto transfers
Prosecutors are examining whether these flows were connected to promotion or access Early positioning
Authorities also identified early $LIBRA purchases Wallets linked to a crypto promoter bought before public attention
Estimated gains reached around $180K
This raised questions about advance knowledge and coordination
An additional layer
Records show no public decree authorizing a foreign ad honorem advisor Legal analysts note that such roles typically require disclosure
Investigators are also reviewing whether the confidentiality clauses limited internal oversight And whether the agreement created implied endorsement ahead of the launch
These elements were not publicly discussed at the time
What happens now
Two investigations are active One in New York One in Argentina
Authorities are examining • Indirect payments • Money laundering risks • Political responsibility in promotion
Investigators also noted activity in safe deposit boxes days after the collapse
Open questions
The documents do not prove coordination They do establish proximity timing and financial movement
What remains unresolved is whether the agreement was advisory in name only Or part of a broader structure that became visible only after LIBRA failed
State of 2025 Token Launches a reality check (by Memento Research)
Memento Research reviewed 118 token launches in 2025 and the data is brutal.
Nearly 85% of tokens are trading below their TGE valuation. The median outcome since launch is -71% FDV and -67% market cap.
Only 15% of launches are green. The rest are deep in the red.
The most striking result: 28 projects launched at ≥ $1B FDV 0% of them are up today Median drawdown: -81%
Big launches didn’t grow into their valuations they dragged the entire year down. That’s why the FDV-weighted index (-61.5%) looks far worse than the equal weighted one (-33.3%).
Category breakdown shows more pain than promise:
Infra & AI made up ~60% of launches and were punished hardest (-72% to -82% medians)
DeFi quietly had the best hit rate (32% green)
Perp DEXs stood out, but largely due to a single outlier
Gaming, stablecoins, and DeSi offered little relief
The clean takeaway is simple: TGE in 2025 was not early. For most projects, it marked the top.
Lower-FDV launches were the only group with a meaningful survival rate, while higher starting valuations consistently led to deeper repricing.
2025 wasn’t just a bad year for alts. It was a valuation reset where hype lost to math, and size became a liability. #USGDPUpdate $AAVE
AAVE is entering a governance conflict that has been building for years
Not because the protocol is weak But because it is stronger than ever
This is not about a hack It is about control
The protocol today
Aave is the largest lending protocol in crypto
Around $33B in TVL More than $21B in active borrows
It is now more than twenty times larger than Compound
That scale is what made the dispute unavoidable
The trigger
In early December 2025 CoWSwap was integrated directly into Aave
Swap fees were routed to an Aave Labs wallet Not to the DAO
That decision exposed a question that had been avoided
Who actually owns AAVE
The unresolved question
One view The DAO funded everything through the ICO The brand and revenue should belong to token holders
The other view Aave Labs legally owns the brand and IP And has carried development through years of risk
This disagreement existed for a long time It just was not public
Governance escalation
A proposal emerges to move the brand and IP to the DAO Another proposal pushes the issue to a Snapshot vote
The conflict becomes explicit DAO versus Aave Labs
Arguments from one side • Fees should benefit token holders • Private control creates conflicts • DAO sovereignty must be protected
Arguments from the other • Legal structures are complex • Snapshot voting is too blunt • Poor timing risks Aave V4 and adoption • Labs kept the protocol alive through earlier cycles
Market reaction
During the debate A large holder exits
About 230000 AAVE Roughly $38M
The capital rotates into stETH and WBTC
AAVE trades near $151
What happens next?
The Snapshot vote ends December 26
The protocol will survive either outcome
What changes is governance
Whether $AAVE becomes fully DAO controlled Or continues with hybrid power structures
The open question is not if Aave endures It is what kind of protocol it becomes after this decision
APRO positioning itself as the #1 oracle deserves a closer look, beyond slogans.
At its core, APRO is building an oracle layer optimized for real-time, high-frequency data, not just slow price feeds. This matters because the next wave of onchain activity isn’t simple spot swaps it’s perps, prediction markets, AI-driven apps, and event-based settlement, where stale data can cause liquidations or broken outcomes.
Unlike legacy oracle models that focus mainly on coverage, APRO is leaning into speed, low latency, and multi-chain delivery. Their Oracle 3.0 design combines off-chain computation with on-chain verification, aiming to keep data accurate without bloating costs. Support for both push and pull data feeds makes it flexible for different applications.
That said, “#1” isn’t about claims it’s about dependency. Chainlink still dominates integrations, but APRO is targeting a different battlefield: markets where milliseconds matter.
The real test is adoption. If prediction markets and high-speed DeFi keep growing, oracles like APRO won’t be optional infrastructure they’ll be critical. Whether APRO captures that future will depend on usage, not narratives.$AT @APRO Oracle @APRO-ORACLE #APRO
This really puts 2025 post-TGE performance into perspective.
Around 35 projects launched at valuations above $1B this year. Not one of them is in the green today.
Average performance ≈ -81%
That’s not a few bad apples That’s a pattern
We may still see one or two more >$1B launches this year like Lighter or Sentient AGI, but the backdrop hasn’t changed.
It raises an uncomfortable question Are these launches meaningfully different from memecoin dynamics Just wrapped in better branding, suits, and narratives
Because even projects launching at $100M with “strong fundamentals” are still down 70–80% shortly after listing
This isn’t just poor timing It’s structural
High FDVs Low floats Weak value capture And a market with no appetite for dilution
No surprise teams are struggling to clear $100M now And no surprise users are exhausted
2025 wasn’t just a tough year It was a brutal reality check for altcoins $AAVE
Story of Cupsey From $2000 to $30M on Solana and then the edge disappeared
He started with about $2000 By the end of 2025 the number was above $30M
This is not a claim of inevitability It is a record of how the trades unfolded
The trader
Cupsey Age 19 Often described as a trench grinder
The numbers
Records show • Starting capital around $2000 • Ending net between $30400000 and $30660000 • More than 262000 trades • Win rate near 67.7 percent • Over 15500 tokens • More than $56M in volume
From December 20 2024 to September 15 2025 • 271 green days in a row • Average daily profit around $113469 during the bull phase
How the strategy worked
This was not long term investing
The approach relied on • PumpFun snipes • Small standard entries often near 3 SOL • Rapid exits • Scanning hundreds of new launches daily
Holding periods were short Around 95 percent of trades closed in under one minute
Speed mattered more than conviction
The break
On September 16 activity changed
The main wallet was drained Nova is suspected as the connection vector
A new wallet appeared
After the drain
From September 16 to December 21 • $145237 realized • 1248 trades • About 12.9 trades per day • Average profit near $1496 per day
The pace slowed The edge narrowed
The open question
Was the performance driven by execution speed By early access to flow By tooling discipline or by conditions that no longer exist
Cupsey shows what is possible in one market phase
What remains unclear is how repeatable this really is once the environment changes $SOL