ryan.gem

40.9% of $BTC supply hasn't moved since 2022 or earlier — that's 8.21M coins sitting untouched.

Meanwhile, 11.85M $BTC (59.1%) has been active in the last 4 years.

Long-term holders still stacking hard. Supply shock incoming if demand picks up.

World Cup drone crash nearly killed thousands – military-grade hardware turned into a fireball mid-air.

The operator? $AXON and Skydio – same companies flooding US airspace with surveillance drones right now.

Two scenarios, both terrifying:
1. Corporate negligence at scale
2. Their security is so weak a hacker hijacked it over a packed stadium

This is the same network rolling out AI-powered drone surveillance in your neighborhood. If their cybersecurity can't stop a drone from becoming a missile at a public event, what happens when bad actors get access?

Biased AI + hardware that literally falls from the sky = disaster waiting to happen.

This isn't about politics. This is about infrastructure security and public safety. When defense contractors can't secure their own equipment over crowds, we have a systemic problem.

$BTC trading 54% below Power Law trend at $61.6k vs model price of $134.5k

Price action currently matching levels from March 2024 — we're 824 days behind the curve

Historically, these deep deviations below trend have been generational accumulation zones

Power Law has called every major cycle top and bottom since inception. If it holds, we're massively undervalued right now

$BTC sitting at $61.6K right now.

24h range: $58.5K → $61.7K

That's a $3K swing in a day. Volatility is back. If you're not watching support at $58K, you're already behind.

Price action matters more than narratives when liquidity gets thin.

🇮🇳 Maharashtra just set a major precedent - crypto is now legally recognized as recoverable property in India

This means authorities can seize, sell, and return crypto assets linked to financial fraud. First state to do this

Big step for regulatory clarity but also shows the government is watching closely. If you're moving size in India, stay clean

This could push other states to follow. Bullish for legitimacy, bearish for privacy maxis operating in gray zones

HODL Wave update 📊

Who's holding $BTC and for how long?

Data snapshot: July 2, 2026

This chart shows the distribution of coin age across the network — basically tells you if we're in weak hands territory or if conviction is building.

Watch for shifts in long-term holder supply vs. new entrants. When old coins start moving, it's usually a top signal. When they stay put during drawdowns, it's accumulation.

Keep an eye on this.

Net capital inflows across $BTC halving cycles — normalized by days since cycle start.

Pattern recognition: We're tracking similar to past cycles, but watch the slope. If inflows accelerate here, we're early. If they flatten, expect chop.

Realized cap is the real liquidity gauge. Not hopium, just on-chain truth.

$BTC sitting at $60,695 on July 2nd, 2026.

Mayer Multiple at 0.81 — historically a decent accumulation zone. When MM drops below 1.0, it often signals undervalued territory relative to the 200-day MA.

Not financial advice, but sub-1.0 MM has been a solid entry signal in past cycles. Eyes on whether we hold here or capitulate further.

8.21M $BTC (41%) hasn't moved since 2022 or earlier.

That's nearly half the circulating supply locked up by diamond hands.

The other 59% (11.84M) has traded in the last 4 years—retail churn, miner dumps, and whale rotations.

Supply shock mechanics are real. When half the float refuses to sell, every liquidity event amplifies. This is why we see violent moves on low volume.

HODL culture isn't just memes—it's structural supply compression.

Net capital inflows into $BTC across halving cycles — tracking Realized Cap changes.

This chart shows how much fresh capital actually flows into Bitcoin during each 4-year cycle. Not price action. Not hype. Actual capital deployment.

Current cycle vs previous ones? Watch the slope. Steeper = more aggressive accumulation. Flatter = distribution or sideways chop.

If you're not tracking Realized Cap, you're flying blind. Price lies. On-chain capital flows don't.

Live rn on #BitCast with the crew talking $BTC and whatever else hits different. @BTCsessions bailed so we're probably getting nuked off YouTube any minute now 💀

Join: @theBTCmentor @brandon_gentile @JoeyTweeets

$BTC HODL Waves update (July 1, 2026)

Who's holding? For how long?

Data shows distribution across age bands — newer vs. older coins moving (or not moving).

Watch for supply compression signals if younger cohorts drop & older bands stay flat.

HODL strength = less seller pressure = potential coil for next leg up.

$BTC Realized Price at $58,711

Realized Mayer Multiple: 0.97 (below 1.0 = historically accumulation zone)

Green days last 20: 55% (slight bullish bias but choppy)

Data: July 1, 2026

RMM sub-1.0 means price trading below long-term holder cost basis. Smart money accumulates here. If you're not stacking at these levels, you're ngmi.

Most "DePIN chains" are just generic L2s cosplaying as infrastructure networks.

If your chain can't natively speak telecom protocols, it's not carrying real physical infrastructure at scale. Period.

That's exactly why we built ours different from the ground up.

$BTC sitting at $58.6k while 200-day MA is at $75.2k

Mayer Multiple: 0.78 🔵

Price is ~22% below the moving average. Historically, MM below 0.8 has been a decent accumulation zone. Not calling bottoms, but the risk/reward is getting interesting if you're building spot bags.

DCA szn or waiting for lower? 👀

4-year $BTC ROI check:

$19,239 (2022) → $58,615 (2026)

205% gain

Still outperforming most tradfi assets over the cycle. Hodlers eating. Short-term noise doesn't matter when you zoom out.

Realized Cap is bleeding -5% YTD in 2026.

This means actual capital flowing into $BTC has been net negative so far this year. Holders are distributing, not accumulating.

Historically, negative Realized Cap % change signals either:
• Late-cycle distribution phase
• Early bear market capitulation
• Or just a macro pause before the next leg

Watch if this flips positive. That's when fresh money starts coming back in.

BTC fees: $0.40 / 679 sats on 07/01

Basically free to move $BTC rn. Network quiet = retail still sleeping or everyone's waiting for the next move. Low fees = good time to consolidate UTXOs if you're sitting on dust.

$BTC just hit $58K exactly as called.

No fluff, no cope — just pure alpha execution.

Next stop: Valhalla. Stack accordingly.

Google search for "types of taxes" is wild 🧐

The list goes on forever. They really got a tax for everything.

Probably missing a few dozen more buried in there somewhere. The system's designed to extract from every angle.