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A New York man will serve 15 months in federal prison for posing as crypto influencers on Telegram and steering victims into a fake crypto staking scam.
A federal judge also sentenced Noman Saleem, 39, of Queens and Levittown, to three years of supervised release. The scheme ran from December 2020 through at least March 2021.
How the Crypto Influencer Impersonation Worked
Saleem copied the Telegram handle of a popular crypto influencer in 2020. Thousands of users joined his public channel.
He also built a paid VIP sub-channel, charging roughly $500-$600 in crypto for a subscription. Members could message him directly, which led them to believe he was the real influencer.
In addition, Saleem cloned a second influencer’s handle and used the VIP subscription model here as well. The duplicate identities widened his reach across the messaging app.
He promoted staking rewards with terms of 30 to 90 days. Saleem promised larger payouts for larger deposits, yet he never staked any funds.
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The Money Trail and the Sentence
Victims sent crypto to wallets that Saleem owned and controlled. Once he held the assets, he cut contact and disappeared with the funds.
“Saleem engaged in the investment scheme by promoting himself as popular online crypto influencers, convincing several victims to send crypto to virtual wallets that he owned and controlled,” the press release read.
The scheme generated at least $1.4 million in crypto and US dollars. Prosecutors said the government recovered much of that sum through the plea agreement.
US District Judge Deborah K. Chasanow imposed the term, as announced Tuesday by the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Maryland. Saleem had pleaded guilty in September 2025.
The case adds to a growing wave of fraud that exploits trust in social media personalities. It also signals continued federal efforts to pursue impersonation schemes that hide behind crypto’s pseudonymous wallets.
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South Korea’s KOSPI opened sharply higher on June 24 after the previous session’s 10% crash, but the recovery quickly ran out of steam. SK Hynix shed further ground while Samsung held relatively steady, and the index retreated toward the 8,300 level.
The initial bounce drew in retail and institutional bargain hunters, but sellers returned fast. With Micron Technology’s earnings due after the US close, traders appear unwilling to hold positions.
The Bounce That Didn’t Stick
The KOSPI opened at 8,356.79, up 1.86% from Tuesday’s close of 8,203.84, and briefly extended as high as 8,543.68, a gain of over 4%. That move faded. The index has since pulled back to 8,297, trimming the day’s gain to around 1%.
The KOSPI’s early morning gains have all but been erased. Image Source: Trading View
The divergence between South Korea’s two biggest chipmakers tells a clearer story. Samsung Electronics held relatively firm, trading around 322,500 won, still up on the day, but well off the early 7% surge. SK Hynix reversed course more sharply, falling to 2,467,000 won after earlier trading near 2,653,000 won. That reversal puts SK Hynix back in the red for the session.
The KOSDAQ also opened higher but has given back much of its early advance.
Sellers Return Before Micron
Tuesday’s crash erased weeks of gains in a single session. The KOSPI, which had closed at a record high of 9,114.55 the previous day, finished Tuesday at 8,203.84, down 910.71 points, or 9.99%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both slid around 12%. The Korea Exchange activated a circuit breaker at around 2:33 p.m., halting trading for 20 minutes.
Wednesday’s early jump looked like classic post-crash position covering. Retail investors and institutions bought the dip while foreign investors stayed net sellers. Kiwoom Securities researcher Han Ji-young had said the market would open higher on technical buying once investors priced in the US semiconductor selloff — and it did. But holding those gains is proving harder.
“With the view that the sharp drop in semiconductor stocks in the U.S. market has been priced in, Korea’s market will open higher on technical buying after the previous day’s plunge and work to recoup the prior losses.” — Han Ji-young, Kiwoom Securities
SK Hynix’s steeper reversal reflects the stock’s specific vulnerability. The chip stock had overtaken Samsung as South Korea’s most valuable listed company earlier this month, powered by its dominance in High Bandwidth Memory. That premium makes it more exposed when AI chip sentiment turns.
SK Hynix has suffered the most through the early trading. Image Source: Trading View
Korea’s failure to secure a place on the MSCI Developed Markets Index watch list drew little market reaction — analysts treated it as an expected outcome after a negative accessibility review last week.
Micron Technology reports earnings after the US close on June 24. The result and its guidance on memory chip demand will set the tone for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia heading into the rest of the week. A strong Micron print could stabilise sentiment. A miss risks extending Tuesday’s selloff into a second wave.

South Korea’s KG Group is pursuing a Solana-based digital asset payments network following KG Financial’s strategic MOU with the Solana Foundation. The deal targets stablecoin settlement across the group’s merchant network.
The move adds to a fast-growing list of Korean financial players exploring public-chain settlement behind regulated commerce.
What the KG Group and Solana Partnership Bring
A digital asset payments network is an infrastructure layer that uses blockchain rails to settle transactions in stablecoins or tokenized money. KG Financial, formerly KG Mobilians, is now building exactly that with the Solana Foundation across the South Korean retail commerce sector.
The agreement formalizes work that has been running since April. Both parties have already completed joint proof of concept projects covering stablecoin issuance and real-world payment services. As a result, KG Financial concluded the model is both commercially viable and technically feasible across the board.
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BREAKING: Korea’s KG Inicis is set to bring stablecoin payments to Solana.South Korea’s largest payment platform moves over KRW 25 trillion a year. Now it’s putting stablecoins to work as an online payment method, with token-based merchant rewards to follow. pic.twitter.com/tz3fkioRqo
— Solana (@solana) June 23, 2026
The signing took place at KG Tower in Jung-gu, Seoul. Solana Foundation President Lily Liu and KG Financial CEO Yoo Seung-yong led the ceremony alongside senior officials. Furthermore, the event marked one of the most concrete Solana partnerships involving a major Korean payments group to date.
KG Group brings significant scale to the deal. The conglomerate operates affiliate KG Inicis, a leading payment gateway with deep reach across Korean online commerce. Moreover, the broader KG payments network covers roughly 220,000 active merchants spread across multiple retail and digital channels nationwide.
The MOU outlines several specific areas of focus. Both sides will jointly develop stablecoin-based payment and settlement systems. Furthermore, the agreement covers the creation of digital payment service proofs of concept and the integration of Solana with existing regulated PG services and prepaid card platforms.
Toss Bank Will Test Solana for Cross-Border Payments
The KG Group news lands days after Toss Bank signed its own MOU with the Solana Foundation. The country’s first internet-only bank to formally partner with Solana is now testing stablecoin-based international remittances directly inside a regulated digital banking application.
That earlier agreement covers a phased proof of concept for cross-border remittances and broader blockchain settlement work. Furthermore, Toss Bank serves roughly 15 million customers, giving Solana direct exposure to one of the largest digital banking platforms operating across the Korean financial ecosystem today.
Solana brings real depth to the table. According to DeFiLlama, the network now hosts roughly $15.21 billion in stablecoin market cap, with USDC accounting for around 48% of that. Furthermore, that figure represents nearly 5% of the total $309 billion global stablecoin market, according to CoinGecko data.
Total Solana Stablecoins Market Cap. Source: DefiLlama
Toss Bank already runs a live international remittance product launched in January. The service supports seven currencies across 30 countries. As a result, blockchain settlement must improve something concrete within the existing service, such as costs, speed, or operational reliability for the bank.
The two deals together paint a clear picture. Korean financial groups are now openly testing whether Solana can sit safely behind regulated banking apps, payment gateways, and merchant networks across a wide range of consumer-facing financial products in the country.
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Cboe Global Markets has rolled out the first product in Cboe Predicts, its new prediction markets suite, listing binary options on the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP) through Interactive Brokers.
Charles Schwab will add access in the coming months, with other brokers to follow.
Cboe Targets Prediction Markets With Mini-S&P 500 Contracts
According to the press release, the contracts are listed under the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX.
“Cboe Predicts represents the latest expansion of Cboe’s S&P 500 Index (SPX) product suite. XSP allows customers to trade on the performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) but is scaled to 1/10th the size of SPX – making it a smaller, more retail-friendly alternative,” the global markets operator said.
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The contracts let traders take a simple yes-or-no position on where the index closes. A “yes” position pays $100 if the index settles at or above a chosen level. A “no” position pays the same if it settles below.
Cboe routes the products through leading retail brokers and clears them centrally through the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC).
JJ Kinahan, Cboe’s Head of Retail Expansion, tied the move to demand following zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options. Rob Hocking, Cboe’s Global Head of Derivatives, framed the launch as an effort to raise standards across the sector.
“We look forward to bringing our experience, trusted market infrastructure, and the deep liquidity of the SPX options ecosystem to prediction markets. Our goal is to help set a higher standard for market integrity, product design and investor protection…” he added.
The firm said that its future plans include adding XSP vertical spreads through Cboe’s patent-pending Quoted Spread Book. Cboe is the latest established firm to enter the territory pioneered by Polymarket and Kalshi. Even Meta reportedly wants in with a standalone app.
The launch lands as prediction markets attract record interest. Open interest across the sector recently hit an all-time high of $1.48 billion.
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CryptoQuant has urged MicroStrategy to stop buying Bitcoin (BTC) and rebuild its cash reserve. The research firm published that call on June 23, roughly two weeks after the Michael Saylor-led Bitcoin treasury had already started doing it.
By then, the company had spent two straight weeks steering most of its fresh capital into cash, not Bitcoin. That timing blunts the force of the recommendation.
Inside CryptoQuant’s MicroStrategy Warning
In its June 23 report, CryptoQuant said MicroStrategy’s annualized dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion in 2026.
Its US dollar reserve, the buffer for those payments, has fallen 38% over the same period.
STRC, the variable-rate preferred stock Strategy markets as a stable instrument near $100, instead slid to $82.50 last week. That marked a record low, about 17.5% below par.
That gap cut dividend coverage from more than seven years to roughly 14 months, by CryptoQuant’s math. The reserve sat near $2 billion before May, when MicroStrategy spent about $1.5 billion buying back convertible notes due 2029.
Selling Bitcoin to refill the reserve would backfire, the firm argued. MicroStrategy sits on a $10.6 billion unrealized loss, since Bitcoin now trades well below its average cost near $75,000.
MicroStrategy Unrealized Profit/Loss. Source: CryptoQuant
“The company’s strategic priority should be to pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild its cash reserve,” stated Julio Moreno a CryptoQuant analyst.
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MicroStrategy Had Already Pivoted
Strategy’s weekly purchase updates show the shift began before the warning. In the week of June 22, it bought just 520 Bitcoin for about $35 million.
That same week, Strategy raised $335.5 million selling common stock. It routed $300 million into the reserve, lifting it to $1.4 billion.
Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion and plans to continue replenishing it to support the credit quality of its Digital Credit securities. We also acquired 520 BTC for $35 million, increasing our $BTC Reserve to ₿847,363. $MSTR $STRC.…
— Strategy (@Strategy) June 22, 2026
A week earlier, it bought 1,587 BTC but still funneled most proceeds to cash. Across both weeks, Strategy was selling more stock than it spent on Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy casts the cash build as protecting the credit quality of its preferred shares. The move marks a shift from its long-standing buy-only pledge.
The Real Debate Now
Bitcoin’s spot price hovered near $62,534, down about 2.5% on the day, keeping the treasury underwater.
CryptoQuant says the reserve must reach about $2.8 billion, or 24 months of coverage, before STRC can recover. At $1.4 billion, Strategy is only halfway there.
Strategy is not required to sell Bitcoin to defend STRC. It can raise the 11.5% dividend or issue more MSTR stock instead, levers it has already pulled.
So the question is no longer whether to rebuild the reserve. It is whether MicroStrategy can do it fast enough to steady STRC.
The next purchase update will show whether it keeps cash ahead of Bitcoin.

The U.S. Senate passed a War Powers Resolution on Tuesday, voting 50-48 to rein in Trump’s war with Iran. Bitcoin (BTC), often pitched as a geopolitical hedge, barely moved.
The measure is the first of its kind to clear both chambers of Congress. Yet traders treated it as a formality, since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is already weeks old.
S&P500, Oil, and Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView A Historic Rebuke Markets Had Already Priced
Four Republicans broke ranks to support the resolution. Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul joined the Democrats. Senator John Fetterman was the only Democrat to oppose it.
MAJOR BREAKING: The U.S. Senate has voted 50-48 to approve a War Powers Resolution directing President Trump to end military hostilities with Iran unless Congress explicitly authorizes continued military action. Four Republicans joined most Democrats in support, while Sen. John…
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) June 23, 2026
Congress has reached for the 1973 War Powers Resolution against this president before. In 2020, after the Soleimani strike, the Senate passed a binding Iran measure that Trump vetoed.
This one is a concurrent resolution, so it never reaches his desk.
The vote followed a U.S.-Iran ceasefire reached earlier this month. That truce reopened the Strait of Hormuz and pulled oil back from its wartime highs.
Equities and crude had reacted to the earlier ceasefire relief long before Tuesday.
The White House dismissed the result as meaningless.
“Concurrent resolutions do not go to the president and have no force of law,” a White House official made that point to CNN.
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The S&P 500 barely moved, just like oil, after tech sector sell-off hit the markets earlier in the day. However, oil price saw modest gains.
Bitcoin Marches to its Own Drum
BTC traded near $62,667 on Wednesday, down about 2.5% over 24 hours. Its recent price action has followed crypto-specific stress, not the politics in Washington.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
A record 13-day run of outflows drained about $4.4 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) through early June. It was the longest streak since the funds launched in January 2024.
BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest fund, lost roughly $980 million in its worst week yet. A Federal Reserve in no hurry to cut rates has added to the strain. BTC now trades near half its October record around $126,000.
The slide undercuts the safe-haven story crypto promoters often repeat. During the U.S. strikes on Iran this year, BTC slid with equities rather than rising like gold.
The pattern is familiar. BTC fell about 8% the day Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, then quickly rebounded. The move echoed its Ukraine war playbook.
For now, BTC trades on liquidity and interest rates, not geopolitics. Whether ETF flows turn around may matter more than any vote in Congress.

South Korea proposed taxing unrealized gains on stocks and real estate at a National Assembly forum on Tuesday. The push triggered what local traders are already calling Black Tuesday across the entire Korean stock market.
The proposal would tax investors on paper profits they have never realized by selling, redefining how wealth is treated in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
🚨 SOUTH KOREA JUST PROPOSED TAXING UNREALIZED GAINS.And this is one of the major reasons behind today's massive selloff in the Korean market, now being called BLACK TUESDAY in Korea.At a forum hosted by South Korea's ruling Democratic Party, lawmakers called for… https://t.co/WoaR6Mu8bI pic.twitter.com/O1BfbbgIVY
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) June 23, 2026
What South Korea’s New Tax Proposal Says
An unrealized gain is the on-paper profit an investor holds before actually selling the asset and converting the value into cash. The new South Korean push would treat that paper gain as taxable income, even if the underlying stock or property has never changed hands.
The forum brought together a powerful coalition. Lawmakers from the Democratic Party, the Progressive Party, the Rebuilding Korea Party, and the Social Democratic Party signed on.
Furthermore, civic groups, including the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions and the Federation of Korean Trade Unions, joined the effort.
The forum title clearly sets the tone. Organizers framed the event as “Exploring the Tax Gap on Asset Income and a Transition to Comprehensive Income Taxation.” The argument rests on a simple idea: rising wealth signals rising capacity to pay, regardless of whether assets are sold.
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BREAKING: 🇰🇷 Korean lawmakers are pushing to tax unrealized gains.This is currently focused on high-net-worth individuals or specific financial assets. pic.twitter.com/IAOpXbQEfr
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) June 23, 2026
The proposal is the latest step in a broader campaign. In February, lawmakers floated lowering the real estate capital gains exemption from ₩1.2 billion to ₩800 million (~$780,000 to $520,000).
Moreover, an April push targeted the long-term holding deduction for property owners.
“We should revive the financial investment income tax, reduce tax exemptions and deductions concentrated among high-income groups, and add nominal brackets to raise the effective tax rate for the ultra-high-income class,” said Park Ki-san, director at the Federation of Korean Trade Unions.
Tuesday marks the first time the campaign has explicitly reached unrealized stock gains.
Under current law, investors owe tax only when they sell shares and lock in a profit. The proposed shift would fundamentally redefine taxation across all major Korean asset classes.
The wider context matters. President Lee Jae Myung reversed an earlier plan in September 2025 to lower the capital gains tax threshold from ₩5 billion to ₩1 billion (~$3.26 million to $652,000) after a retail-investor backlash erased billions in market value across a single trading week.
Why the Proposal Triggered a Korean Black Tuesday
The market reaction was immediate and brutal. Traders quickly dubbed June 23 a Black Tuesday for Korean equities, with major listings plunging across the KOSPI and the broader index. As a result, retail sentiment turned sharply negative within hours of the forum.
The fear among investors is structural. Taxing paper gains would force holders to sell shares simply to pay an annual liability.
Also, the policy could undermine long-term investing, hurt retirement portfolios, and accelerate capital flight toward overseas equity markets across Asia.
The Korean stock market is getting slaughtered because of the proposed unrealized stocks gains tax.I think that this is partially spilling over to other markets.$KOSPI pic.twitter.com/zQnpkGjVmj
— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) June 23, 2026
Internationally, there is now a clear precedent. The Netherlands passed a similar law on February 12, 2026, imposing a flat 36% annual tax on unrealized gains across stocks, bonds, and crypto assets. The Dutch backlash hit local markets and startups almost immediately.
Critics are already pointing to the Dutch example. They argue the Netherlands case shows how an aggressive unrealized gains regime can choke innovation, drive talent abroad, and pressure household balance sheets.
As a result, opposition lawmakers are expected to escalate resistance in the coming weeks.
Supporters frame the policy as fairness. They argue that high-net-worth holders have an enormous capacity to pay long before selling, while wage earners pay tax on every paycheck. Civic groups insist that closing the gap is essential for a modern income tax architecture.
The path forward remains uncertain. Any actual legislation must still clear the National Assembly, where parties remain divided.

Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin (BTC) to bottom near $40,000 within the next six months, a prediction the BitMEX co-founder made even as his core positions stay heavily long.
Bitcoin changed hands around $62,278 on Tuesday, down about 3% over 24 hours and locked in a range it has held for weeks. A move to Haye’s target would constitute a 35% drawdown below current prices.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView Arthur Hayes Eyes a $40,000 Bitcoin Floor
Hayes laid out the call during an interview with content creator EllioTrades on June 12. He said he holds put spreads as a hedge, while his long-term book stays large and strictly long.
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's Bottom Is Probably Around $40,000 On June 12, 2026, during an interview with @elliotrades, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes shared his prediction for Bitcoin's bottom. When asked about the ultimate bottoming price and timeframe, Hayes… pic.twitter.com/ggfdyXHzEO
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 23, 2026
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The $40,000 target would mark a steep retreat, and adds to a run of recent calls from Hayes, including a more bullish year-end Bitcoin target. His willingness to hedge, however, signals caution about the next few months.
“I’m going to stick with it,” Hayes said when asked if his $200,000–$250,000 target still holds with only weeks left in the year. “If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter… I’m long, I’m still happy either way.”
MicroStrategy Buys Help Bitcoin Reclaim $65,000
Bitcoin had recovered earlier in the week, and MicroStrategy’s buying helped it reclaim the $65,000 level. The company added 520 BTC and lifted its cash reserves by $300 million to $1.4 billion. That extended dividend coverage to nearly 10 months.
Analysts at QCP flagged that the buying likely came through a dilutive at-the-market stock program. Even so, investors took comfort in the liquidity rebuild, and the firm’s STRC preferred shares recovered above $90.
BTC will likely require a confluence of positive catalysts to break decisively out of its current range,” the analysts stated.
The accumulation has limits, however. Wintermute said MicroStrategy keeps buying at a slower pace as funding costs rise.
Wintermute: Crypto Market Leverage Has Largely Been ClearedWintermute said in its latest market update that leverage in the crypto market has largely been flushed out, while Strategy's continued Bitcoin accumulation has eased earlier concerns over potential selling pressure.… pic.twitter.com/KAAzjCAWol
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 23, 2026
It added that the two largest structural buyers, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Strategy, now provide less marginal demand than before.
Hawkish Fed Keeps Bitcoin Boxed In
The bigger drag came from the Federal Reserve. Policymakers held the benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%.
They also stripped the easing bias and tilted the dot plot toward a hike, lifting the median 2026 rate projection to 3.8% from 3.4% in March.
That shift repriced expectations fast. The market now prices December rate hike odds near 37%, up from about 24% a month earlier, according to Wintermute. Most policymakers, 17 of 18, now see inflation risks tilted to the upside.
Conditional Meeting Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch Tool
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish policy turn reinforced the message, signaling a committee set on fighting inflation. The stance held even as oil prices fell.
The backdrop leaves Bitcoin on the defensive. A collapsed US-Iran agreement and roughly $600 million in weekend long liquidations had already weighed on prices.
Traders now look to Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, where consensus sees core inflation rising 0.3% to 0.4%.
Bloomberg @economics sees the PCE Price Index's y/y change rising to 4.1% in May, with core moving up to 3.4% (hotter than CPI) pic.twitter.com/OdnkMkddnl
— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) June 22, 2026
Quarter-end could add to the swings. JPMorgan estimates institutions may shift as much as $165 billion from equities into bonds by the end of June.
That would rank as the largest such reallocation in at least four years. For now, Wintermute sees little sign of fresh demand.
This is a market stabilizing beneath the surface on lighter positioning and cleaner leverage, not one finding new buyers,” Wintermute analysts stated.

The oil market is treating Trump’s Iran deal as the end of the war scare. One veteran trader’s oil price prediction says that the read is wrong.
Brent crude looks calm, but the calm may be the setup. The futures curve and the physical market seem to back him.
Trump’s Deal Reset the Oil Mood
Brent crude oil (BRN) and WTI crude (CL) both fell hard this month as a US-Iran deal took shape.
Vice President JD Vance led the talks in Switzerland and announced several breakthroughs. The two sides built a mechanism to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
Vance called the framework a classic Trump deal. He said any unfrozen Iranian assets would buy American soy, corn, and wheat rather than send cash to Tehran.
JUST IN: Vice President Vance pushes back on “misreporting” about Iranian assets potentially being unfrozen and says that if any of the regime’s money is freed up, it will go to help the American economy and make U.S. farmers richer:“We wanted to make sure that we set up a… pic.twitter.com/6CPNzY8uIS
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 22, 2026
Traders read all of this as supply relief. If the Strait reopens and Gulf output returns, the war premium in oil should fade. That logic drove the recent drop.
Brent Price Action: Investing.com
The deal is far from sealed, though. Trump threatened fresh strikes over the weekend, briefly rattling the talks.
The Lebanon ceasefire piece remains, in Vance’s words, a work in progress. So the market is pricing a peace that has not fully arrived.
One Veteran Trader Sees a Spike Instead
Dan Dicker is not buying the calm. The veteran energy trader warns that oil could jump from about $75 to $135 within a month. His condition is simple.
If inventories stay drained and supply fails to recover, the physical market forces a sharp repricing.
“You’re going to see a spike like you never saw before.” Oil market expert @Dan_Dicker predicts oil could surge up to $135/barrel unless a lasting agreement is reached with Iran, as global stockpiles near dangerously low levels. pic.twitter.com/2axnHstwPm
— Bloomberg (@business) June 21, 2026
Dicker’s call is a tail risk, not a base case. But it frames the stakes. A deal that slips, or a strait that stays choked, could turn a quiet tape into a violent one. For now, though, the fast money is leaning the other way.
Crypto Traders Are Shorting Oil, but It Stays Local
Crypto markets now trade oil, too. On Hyperliquid, a large derivatives venue, the Brent perpetual draws real volume. Positioning there has turned firmly bearish.
Smart money, the wallets with strong track records, sits net short by about $1.1 million. Public figures and influencers are shorter still. One whale that shorted near the war highs, around $110, is up roughly $400,000.
The funding rate, the recurring fee between longs and shorts, sits at a positive near 10% a year. That means longs are still paying to hold, even after the oil price drop. The stubborn bulls are squeezed, but they are not letting go.
Oil Positioning Overview: Nansen Data
There is a catch for the bears, though. This perp is a small market, with about $140 million in open positions. A short squeeze here can move the perp, but not global Brent.
The real price is set in the physical and futures market, not on a crypto venue. The options market tells a more divided story.
The Options Book Is Hedging, Not Flipping
The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) allows American investors to trade Brent via an exchange-traded fund. Its options carry a useful sentiment gauge. The put-call ratio compares bets on a fall to bets on a rise.
A reading below 1 means calls dominate, which leans bullish.
The two readings are split this week. Fresh option volume turned cautious, with the put-call ratio jumping from 0.06 to 0.32. So traders rushed to buy downside protection as Brent fell.
The standing positions told the opposite story. The open interest put-call ratio eased from 0.09 to 0.07, an even more call-heavy book.
BNO Put-Call Ratio: Barchart
That gap is hedging, not surrender. The lasting positions stayed long while the fresh flow bought insurance. It points to bulls protecting gains rather than flipping bearish. The physical market sends the clearest message of all.
The Curve and the Clock Say Tight
The Brent futures curve refuses to confirm the all-clear. Front-month Brent still trades above the next month, a condition known as backwardation.
Backwardation means buyers will pay more for oil now than for later, a classic sign of tight supply. That spread has thinned to its lowest since December 2023. Yet it has stayed positive rather than flipping into oversupply. The physical market still says barrels are scarce.
Brent 1-2 Spread: TradingView
Prediction markets back that view and align with Dan Dicker’s choked Hormuz possibility. On Kalshi, traders see only about a 51% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September.
Full confidence does not arrive until 2027. That timeline aligns with the EIA, which expects flows to resume in the third quarter and output to recover by early 2027.
EIA: HORMUZ OIL TO RESUME Q3 2026 — FULL RECOVERY ONLY IN 2027EIA now expects Strait of Hormuz oil shipments to resume in Q3 2026, but pre-war traffic levels won’t return until early 2027.Kalshi traders disagree: 52% chance of normal traffic before Oct 1, 2026… pic.twitter.com/WFqAHvv80S
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 9, 2026
Hormuz Reopening Odds: Kalshi
The cushion is thinning too. The US emergency oil reserve fell 9.1 million barrels last week to 331.2 million, its lowest since 1983.
STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL IN THE US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE FALL BY ABOUT 9.1 MLN TO 331.2 MLN BARREL LAST WEEK, LOWEST SINCE 1983
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 22, 2026
So the stockpile that would soften any new spike is shrinking, not refilling, also in line with Dicker’s oil hypothesis. Iran is adding pressure of its own, now floating mandatory insurance for any ship crossing the Strait. That keeps a floor under oil even as the war scare fades.
The Whale Is the Tell
Watch the trader who called the top on oil price. The position shorted from $110, per Nansen data, and now sits deep in profit. That entry is a live gauge of conviction. As long as the short stays open, smart money still expects oil to be lower.
A move to close it would be the first real sign the bearish bet is cracking.
The longs tell the other half. They keep paying funding, so the stubborn bid has not quit. If the supply squeeze returns and those longs are right, $135 stops being a warning and starts being a path. Wednesday’s US inventory update is the next clue on which way it breaks.
A shortened week of economic data:Monday (6/22): no reportsTuesday (6/23): no reportsWednesday (6/24): Current Account Balance, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, New Home SalesThursday (6/25): Continuing Claims, Durable Goods, EIA Natural Gas…
— Mike Fairbourn (@MikeFairbournCS) June 21, 2026
Another steep draw would back the oil price bulls, while a surprise build would hand the peace trade its proof.

A Claude outage disrupted public access to Anthropic’s AI for about 85 minutes on June 23, while Claude for Government kept running. The incident highlighted how the company separates its public and federal systems.
The disruption, logged as elevated error rates across multiple models, spread on X after users noticed the government service stayed online on Anthropic’s status page while consumer tools showed failures.
How the Claude Outage Unfolded
Anthropic began investigating early on June 23 and said a fix was in place within about 35 minutes. The elevated errors lasted roughly 85 minutes, and the company marked the incident as resolved a little over 2 hours after the first alert.
The errors hit claude.ai, the Claude API, Claude Code, the Console, and Cowork. Claude for Government did not appear among the affected services.
Claude Outage June 23. Source: statusclaude.com
Over 90 days, it logged 99.93% uptime, compared with 99.1% for claude.ai, a gap of roughly 19 hours of downtime versus about 90 minutes for the government tier.
That gap fueled the reaction, especially among paying subscribers already irritated by recent Claude usage limits. One widely shared post captured the mood.
“Claude is down with a major outage for everyone except for the government,” one user noted.
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Two-Tier Access by Design
The split is deliberate. Claude for Government runs isolated from commercial users, with FedRAMP High authorization carried through Palantir’s federal cloud service.
That is the tier the GSA handed to all three branches of government last year for $1.
Dedicated environments like this are standard across regulated cloud, which is why it held while shared consumer systems faltered.
The outage extended a rough stretch for the public tier. Anthropic’s status page logged more than 20 error or outage incidents between June 9 and June 23. Most named its newest flagship Opus 4.8.
To meet rising demand, the company has locked in up to 5 gigawatts of new Amazon compute capacity and leased additional data center capacity.
The isolated government tier never shared that strained pool.

Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team at Meta to build a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, which will rival Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a New York Times report.
The news arrives days after Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire, and as Kalshi traders rank Zuckerberg among the most likely people to reach $1 trillion next.
Bets on who will be the world’s second trillionaire after Elon Musk. Source: Kalshi Inside Meta’s Arena Prediction Markets App
Meta’s app, known internally as Arena, would run separately from Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, the NYT reported.
The project fits a familiar Zuckerberg pattern of copying rivals, from Instagram Stories against Snapchat to Reels against TikTok and Threads against X (Twitter).
Users would not wager cash at first. Instead, the app would rely on a video-game-style points system, which sidesteps immediate gambling rules but also generates no direct revenue.
However, the company has not ruled out real-money betting later.
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The prize is large. Interest in prediction markets climbed after the 2024 US election, and a 2026 funding round valued Kalshi at $22 billion, double its level months earlier, as annualized volume neared $178 billion.
Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation led by Coatue, with participation from Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, a16z, and others.In 2018, we were two kids who loved math, markets, and debate. And we had a dream: build the next generation financial market, where we capture a broader set… pic.twitter.com/4ERJxYxzHJ
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) May 7, 2026
These fast-growing prediction markets let people trade on elections, sports, and economic data, with Kalshi under US regulators and Polymarket on blockchain rails.
Scrutiny is rising too. Regulators are circling the sector, and one analysis found that most Polymarket users lose money.
What the Trillionaire Math Says
Musk reached first trillionaire status on June 12, after SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut. The title is volatile, though. A 16% slide in SpaceX shares has since erased about $240 billion from his fortune, bringing his fortune to roughly $1.08 trillion, Bloomberg‘s index shows.
Top 10 People on Bloomberg’s Billionaire Index. Source: Bloomberg Billionaire Index
Unlike Musk, whose wealth spans SpaceX and Tesla, Zuckerberg depends almost entirely on one stock.
On Kalshi, traders gave Zuckerberg about 24% odds of joining the trillionaire club next on June 23, after Nvidia’s Jensen Huang at 50% and Jeff Bezos at 30%.
That market is thin, however, with only about $7,500 traded, so the figure is soft.
Forbes puts Zuckerberg at $222 billion, fifth in the world. His fortune would need to roughly quintuple to reach $1 trillion.
Almost all of it sits in Meta stock, where he owns about 13%, so the company’s $1.45 trillion value would have to swell past $7 trillion.
META Stock Performance. Source: TradingView
Zuckerberg’s costly bets do not always land. Meta’s Reality Labs has lost more than $70 billion since 2020.
A points-based Arena would earn nothing at launch, leaving Meta’s AI and advertising engine to drive any real move toward $1 trillion.
Kalshi’s trillionaire contracts run through 2033 on thin volume. Oxfam projected in 2025 that five people could cross $1 trillion within a decade, naming Zuckerberg among them.
Whether Arena becomes a real business or a quiet experiment, Zuckerberg’s road to that mark still runs through Meta’s core engine.

Bank of America raised its Micron stock price target to $1,500 from $950, spotlighting the memory maker that sits beside Nvidia at the heart of the AI build-out.
Micron has run almost 300% in 2026 to record highs, so a beat is already expected. The edge now sits in positioning and money flow, not the headline numbers.
Micron Stock Price: Google Finance Bank of America Sees $1,500 as the Memory Cycle Widens
Bank of America lifted its Micron (MU) target to $1,500 from $950 and kept a Buy, because it raised its 2030 chip-market forecast to $2.7 trillion from $2.3 trillion, led by memory and data center.
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That makes Micron a direct play on AI memory. It is one of three makers of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the stacked chips that feed AI accelerators, with SK Hynix and Samsung. If Nvidia’s processors are one half of the AI trade, this memory is the other. The chips do the computing, but they stall without fast memory beside them to feed the data, so demand for one pulls the other along.
Micron $MU price target raised to $1,500 from $950 at BofABofA raised the firm's price target on Micron to $1,500 from $950 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its semis industry models and price objectives to conform to the updated industry estimates,… pic.twitter.com/B2b7yLBlDN
— TipRanks (@TipRanks) June 23, 2026
A target says nothing about how traders are positioned into the print.
The Options Desk Is Braced for a Big Swing
Option prices point to a far bigger move than usual right after earnings. They suggest a swing of about 17.6% in either direction, what traders call the implied move, against an average of about 8% over the past two years.
Micron $MU has gained 314% YTD & just hit a record high above $1,200 today.. and now faces one of its biggest earnings setups in years. The options market is expecting a ±17.6% post-earnings move vs an average realized move of 8% over the last two years. 👀 https://t.co/6I9t6nvFSO pic.twitter.com/zM1mXzWwIY
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) June 22, 2026
The market expects a jump more than double the norm. This is because a result that lands after a near 300% run can send the stock sharply either way.
Traders are betting heavily. Micron saw over $4 billion spent on its options in a single day, about 10% of all options activity and second only to the S&P 500. That money split almost evenly between bets on a rise and bets on a fall.
🚨 Over $4B+ in total premium has been traded on $MU today which is ~10.4% of the entire total premium traded in the options market.Micron reports earnings on Wednesday… https://t.co/OyhGfNtJXM pic.twitter.com/N4qqyhUi0P
— Quant Data (@QuantData) June 22, 2026
The mix has shifted in the past few days. The put-call ratio, which weighs bets on a fall against bets on a rise, fell from 1.17 on June 18 to 0.93. More traders are buying calls, the wagers that pay off if the stock climbs, after the Bank of America’s target raise.
Micron Put-Call Ratio: Barchart
Older positions still lean cautious. The contracts already on the book stay tilted toward puts, the wagers that protect against a fall, at about 1.34. Fresh money is leaning bullish while existing bets stay hedged.
That split leaves money flow across the memory group as the tie-breaker.
Money Flow Says Micron Leads the HBM Trio
A composite read built on Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a proxy for institutional money, ranks Micron first. It scores +1.45 with CMF +0.139, because buyers keep winning the close through a 59% 20-day run.
HBM Trio Money-Flow Scores: Charlie Quant Lab
SK Hynix scores -0.41 and flags a distribution divergence, since its CMF turned negative while price rose, a sign the rally is being sold into. Samsung lags at -2.21.
A relative rotation map puts Micron in the leading quadrant while both Korean names lag.
Relative Rotation Map HBM: Charlie Quant Lab
The same memory-leadership theme sharpens once crypto traders enter the frame.
Memory Over Nvidia, in Crypto and in the Tape
On Nansen’s smart-money perpetuals, Micron is the biggest net long at about $5.5 million across 43 wallets, while Nvidia is heavily net short near negative $16 million. Traders are backing memory over the GPU maker.
Crypto Smart-Money Perp Positioning: Nansen Data
The cash tape agrees. Micron has outrun Nvidia by about 25% over 14 days, because the memory up-cycle is leading this leg of the AI trade.
Relative Strength Versus Semis: Charlie Quant Lab
Micron’s stock tracks Nvidia, not its Korean rivals. It shows a positive correlation of +0.46 with Nvidia but slightly negative readings against SK Hynix and Samsung. The reason is plain. Micron’s memory goes inside Nvidia’s AI chips, so the two ride the same demand, while the Korean pair move together on their own market.
HBM Names Correlation Matrix: Charlie Quant Lab
With so much leaning bullish, the reaction is still not a given.
Why a Likely Beat Might Not Move the Stock
Consensus sits near $19.72 to $20 a share on about $34.5 billion of revenue, so a beat is the base case, not the surprise.
That is why the odds are even. The stock has already run almost 300% to records, options imply a 17.6% move against an 8% norm, and open interest stays hedged near 1.34, so good news is largely priced in.
Even bulls hedge their conviction. Ehrmantraut Capital expects “the price action post-ER to be a 50/50,” because the buy and sell side already expect massive beats, and stresses that “the numbers and forward-looking statements are one to keep a close eye on.”
Micron $MU will report Q3 FY2026 earnings on Wednesday after the close.Analyst expectations for Q3 FY2026:Revenue: $35.02 billionEPS: $20.05Analyst expectations for Q4 FY2026 guidance:Revenue: ~$41.50 – 42.00 billionEPS: $24.21The earnings call will be interesting,… pic.twitter.com/yqZH8LYQ3q
— Ehrmantraut Capital (@EhrmantrautCap_) June 23, 2026
For Micron stock, the beat is the easy part, and guidance on 2027 demand and HBM supply deals decides whether $1,500 comes into view or the 300% run finally cools.

The Five Eyes cybersecurity agencies issued a joint statement on June 22, warning that frontier artificial intelligence (AI) will transform offensive and defensive cyber capabilities within months, not years.
The agencies said the technology lowers barriers for attackers. They warned that it shortens the window between vulnerability discovery and exploitation.
Why the Five Eyes Warning Matters
The Five Eyes cybersecurity agencies represent a joint intelligence partnership among Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The group warned that AI is reshaping the cyber threat space.
“Frontier Al models are anticipated to exceed current industry expectations, fundamentally transforming both offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. The timeline is not years, it is months,” the letter reads.
The group noted that AI is expected to strengthen cyber defenses over time. However, it is also increasing the speed, scale, and sophistication of cyber threats. It warned that adversaries are already using the technology to operate more efficiently.
This stresses the need for organizations to deploy AI-driven defenses and bolster cyber resilience to protect business continuity, market confidence, and long-term value.
Furthermore, the letter urged leaders to treat cyber resilience as a core business risk rather than a technology problem. The agencies set out five practical steps.
These include reducing attack surfaces, faster patching, fixing legacy systems, tightening identity and access controls, and preparing for incidents.
They also called on industry to adopt secure-by-design defaults. Officials warned that organizations that delay will face growing operational and reputational exposure.
“Cyber resilience is not an IT issue – it is central to operational continuity and market trust. Leaders who act now will reduce exposure, strengthen resilience, and build confidence with customers, partners, and investors. Those who delay will face growing and avoidable risk,” Five Eyes said.
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AI Threats In Crypto
The warning lands as AI tools reshape attacks on digital assets. Binance Research found that AI models are roughly twice as effective at exploiting smart contracts as they are at detecting flaws.
Attack costs are also collapsing. The research put AI-powered exploits at about $1.22 per contract, with that figure projected to keep falling.
North Korean hackers show how precise these operations have become. TRM Labs linked the group to 76% of 2026 crypto hack losses through April, worth roughly $577 million.
Analysts suspect those actors are folding AI into reconnaissance and social engineering.
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Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below the lowest band of the Bitcoin rainbow chart, the zone the original model bluntly labeled “Bitcoin is dead.” The asset now trades near $62,500, roughly half its October record.
Statistician George Box once wrote, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” Stock-to-flow has already crossed from useful to broken. The question now is whether the rainbow chart is heading the same way.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart
The rainbow chart plots Bitcoin’s price against a logarithmic regression band. Each colored band marks a sentiment zone. Red euphoria sits at the top, and deep value sits at the bottom.
The original version contains 10 bands. At its lowest, a purple strip carries the grim label “Bitcoin is dead.” Sliding into it has always signaled extreme pessimism.
The Original Bitcoin Rainbow Chart. Source: Blockchaincenter
A Reddit user first sketched the chart in 2014. A Bitcointalk contributor later paired it with logarithmic regression, which gave the bands their familiar shape.
For most of Bitcoin’s history, the gauge worked. Tops landed in the warm red bands, and bottoms landed in the cool blue and purple zones.
An updated version of Coinglass trims the model to nine bands. It drops the purple floor entirely, leaving “Fire sale!” as the bottom zone. Our explainer on the rainbow chart band model covers how these bands are built.
Today, Bitcoin sits below even that floor. Its live market price of about $62,500 has dropped through the “Fire sale!” band, outside the model’s defined range.
That has happened only once before, near the 2022 bear-market low. By one reading, the breach frames the current level as a rare deep-value entry point.
Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart Indicator. Source: Coinglass Stock-to-Flow Already Died
A deep-value reading assumes the model still works. Stock-to-flow shows why that assumption carries real risk.
The pseudonymous analyst PlanB introduced the stock-to-flow scarcity model in 2019. It tied Bitcoin’s price to its shrinking supply, with issuance halving after each halving.
For years, the fit looked convincing. Price oscillated around the model line through 2013, 2017, and 2021, which lent the framework real credibility.
Then it broke. After the 2024 halving, the model demanded roughly $500,000. Bitcoin instead peaked near $126,000 in October 2025, missing the target by about 75%.
BTC Stock-to-Flow chart. Source: Glassnode
PlanB pushed the projection further. He has suggested Bitcoin could near $5 million by the 2028 halving, a figure the current price makes hard to defend.
Critics point to a deeper flaw. The model tracks supply alone and ignores demand, the force that actually moves price during real market stress.
The stock-to-flow deflection chart measures price divided by the model’s value. For years, that ratio reverted toward one. Now it is collapsing toward zero.
Stock-to-Flow Deflection chart. Source: Glassnode
A ratio grinding to zero means the error no longer corrects itself. The model now predicts a number that reality keeps ignoring, cycle after cycle.
George Box anticipated this outcome. A model can accurately describe the past and still fail to predict the future. Stock-to-flow has moved firmly into the wrong column.
Will the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Follow?
The rainbow chart shows early symptoms of the same illness. Its weakness appears at both ends of the range, not just the floor. Past peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 pushed into the red “sell” bands near the top.
This cycle’s high reached only the green “Accumulate” zone, far below previous levels.
So price keeps undershooting the upper bands while now breaking the lower one. The band structure that once contained Bitcoin no longer holds it on either side.
Both models lean on relentless exponential growth. Yet Bitcoin is now a $1.25 trillion asset, and very large numbers compound more slowly over time.
That maturing growth curve is exactly what an aging exponential model fails to capture. The chart assumes tomorrow will look like the early years, and it may not.
This shift has a name among analysts. Many now favor a power-law view, where Bitcoin keeps rising but at a steadily slowing pace. A genuine recovery would pull the price back inside the bands and quiet the doubts. A long drift below them would suggest the model is breaking in real time.
Trading near $62,500, down about 3% on the day and 50% below its record, Bitcoin is clearly not dead. The model that was named that band might be.
Whether the rainbow chart joins Stock-to-Flow in retirement, or its longer-term price forecast still holds, is the question the next cycle will answer.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has told unauthorized crypto firms to wind down their EU operations, just days before the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) deadline ends the bloc’s transitional period.
The regulator wants firms without authorization to exit in an orderly way by July 1. It also warned clients that unlicensed providers sit outside MiCA’s investor protections.
EU CRYPTO DEADLINE LOOMS – You have only 2 weeks to move your funds!Only 14 exchanges are licensed to offer trading in Europe after July 1, 2026.MiCA regulation is ending the transitional period. Unlicensed platforms must stop serving EU clients.See what EU crypto users… pic.twitter.com/6YuzekS5kw
— BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) June 16, 2026
How Unauthorized Firms Must Act Before the MiCA Deadline
ESMA issued the statement on June 23, building on an April warning. It sets out how unauthorized crypto-asset service providers (CASPs) must operate after the transitional period ends.
MiCA took force in June 2023, and its full licensing regime began in December 2024. A grandfathering clause let firms keep operating under national rules, but only until July 1.
Affected firms must immediately stop onboarding new EU clients and halt all marketing. They may only help existing users sell, transfer, or close their positions.
Custody can continue only long enough to finish an orderly exit. Firms must also tell clients when any remaining positions will close automatically.
That window is closing fast. As of June 19, ESMA’s register listed about 168 authorized providers across the bloc. Just 11 are cleared to run a trading platform.
Germany hosts the most, with 55. Many firms that operated under national rules never secured a MiCA license and now face forced exits.
A Push Against Regulatory Arbitrage
ESMA said national authorities will coordinate against cross-border firms that ignore the call. It will also work with the European Banking Authority and the EU’s new anti-money laundering body.
The move targets regulatory arbitrage, where firms exploit gaps between national regimes to reach EU users. Some have sought a route into Europe through lighter national rules.
Binance, the largest exchange, is reportedly set to be denied a license in Greece. That could cut its EU access once the deadline passes.
OKX took the opposite path. The first global exchange to be licensed under MiCA received approval from Malta’s regulator in January 2025. It now passes across the bloc.
Founder Star Xu said consistent enforcement would decide whether the rules work.
“As MiCA enters full implementation, consistent enforcement across jurisdictions will be critical to its success. Regulatory arbitrage has too often undermined trust and created an uneven playing field.”
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The next week will show how many firms exit quietly and how many force regulators to act. EU users can check the ESMA register to see which firms were cleared under MiCA before July 1.

The US dollar’s rise to a 13-month high is weighing on metals. That has changed the debate around gold, silver, and copper heading into the end of 2026. The key question is which metal can withstand the pressure best.
Because these commodities are priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes them more expensive outside the US. That puts gold, silver, and copper under the same pressure. The real separation now shows up in the ratios, weekly charts, and bank forecasts for year-end prices.
The Rising US Dollar Index is Pressing Commodities
The starting point for every metal right now is the dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, has pushed above 100 to a 13-month high.
US Dollar Index $DXY $USD another 13-month high… and another record high for small caps $IWM and international stocks $VEUThat doesn't make sense! @stockcharts https://t.co/jM5R5mH5c8 pic.twitter.com/0lJFaeDNz0
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 22, 2026
A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced commodities costlier for the rest of the world, which weighs on gold, silver, and copper. The same force has cooled risk appetite across crypto and stocks.
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The driver is the rate path. With the Federal Reserve seen holding rather than cutting in 2026, real yields stay firm, and the dollar stays bid, which is the headwind behind the recent metals pullback.
US Dollar Index Daily: TradingView
With the DXY chart looking strong (bullish rising channel) and rate hikes back on the table, the case for a weaker dollar near term looks thin. That headwind affects the entire metals complex, bringing the focus back to which one holds up best.
The Metals Move as One, So Leadership Is the Real Question
The three metals are pulling in the same direction. Over the past six months, gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD) show a correlation of 0.83; silver and copper, 0.72; and gold and copper, 0.61.
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together, where 1.0 is lockstep, and 0 is no link. Readings this high mean one shared trade, not three separate bets.
Three Metal Correlation Matrix: Charlie Quant Lab
So the gold, silver, and copper forecast comes down to relative strength inside the complex, not to calling one metal up and another down. The ratios and the weekly charts decide it.
Gold sets the tone for the group, so it is the place to start.
Gold Holds a Falling Channel With Banks Far Apart
(XAU/USD) has traded inside a falling channel since late January, when it peaked near $5,608. A falling channel is a downward drift between two parallel trendlines. Price tried to rebound on March 23, pushed higher, then rolled over again.
On the weekly chart, the line that matters is $4,027. Gold should hold above it. A weekly close under $4,027 opens the door toward $3,249, the prior breakout shelf.
To rebuild strength, gold needs to reclaim $4,400, and a move back above $5,004 would turn the weekly trend constructive again.
Gold Price Analysis: TradingView
The bank split is wide. Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven cut their year-end target to $4,900 on June 19, on the view that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates in 2026. JPMorgan sees $6,000 by year end despite the crowded bearish positioning.
Bearish investor positioning in gold options is extremely crowded:The 6-month put-call skew on the largest US gold-backed ETF, $GLD, is up to 1.03, near the highest since 2017.The put-call skew measures the relative cost of put options versus call options, rising when… pic.twitter.com/M9EKmlWqHo
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 17, 2026
Silver shares gold’s bearish pattern, but its chart hides a second setup.
Silver Tracks Gold but Builds a Double Bottom
(XAG/USD) sits in the same falling channel, which the high correlation supports. Underneath it, a double bottom is taking shape, a pattern where price carves two similar lows and hints at a base.
The first hurdle is $66.53, which has already been rejected once. The level that matters is $75.36. A weekly move above the $75 zone would break the falling channel and turn the bias bullish.
The downside is clear if it fails. Under $59.40, the next stops are $52.27 and then $42.12. A larger trigger sits at $89.62, which would complete the double bottom and project a move of roughly 46%, though that is far off.
Silver Price Analysis: TradingView
The fundamentals are supportive. The Silver Institute forecasts a sixth straight annual market deficit in 2026, near 215 million ounces, and the largest on record. Six straight years of deficit means the market is leaning on above-ground stock to fill the gap, a slow squeeze that supports silver over time.
Copper is the other half of silver’s story, the industrial pull, and right now, copper is the AI trade.
AI Trade Highlights Copper, Its Strengths and Problems
Copper has been in a rising channel since 2024. It came close to breaking above that channel on May 11 and again on June 1, where a double top is now forming, a pattern of two failed highs that warns of exhaustion.
The structural case is the AI build-out. Goldman Sachs Research expects data-center power demand to rise about 165% by 2030, and sees grid and power infrastructure driving more than 60% of copper demand growth this decade, at roughly 6 to 8 tonnes of copper per megawatt of capacity.
So why has copper stalled just under its breakout? The AI trade has wobbled, and data-center policy risk has taken some heat out of the ascent. It shows up in the targets. Bank targets now straddle copper’s record price.
JPMorgan’s full-year 2026 average near $12,075 a tonne sits just below it, Goldman recently lifted its year-end call to about $13,735, and Citi is the highest near $15,000.
Copper Price Analysis: TradingView
On the chart, copper needs to hold $6.12. Under it, expect a slip toward $6.04. A weekly break above $6.47 brings $6.68 and then $7.02 into play. The $6.68 level would confirm the real breakout.
In the per-pound terms the chart uses, the targets straddle copper’s current $6.16. JPMorgan’s 2026 average near $5.48 sits below it, Goldman’s raised year-end call near $6.23 is right at it, and Citi is the highest near $6.80, just above the $6.68 breakout.
The ratios between the metals show how this tension is resolving.
The Ratios Tell You Who Is Leading
Three ratios frame the macro tape. The gold-silver ratio has climbed from about 44 in January to 66 now. That is a risk-off tilt favoring gold, though 66 is not yet extreme enough to scream silver is cheap.
Commodity Ratios. Source: Charlie Quant Lab
The gold-oil ratio has risen from about 41 on May 19 to 56, a stress reading where gold is strong and oil is weak.
The silver-copper ratio cuts the other way. It has fallen from about 19 in January to 10, with copper leading, a classic industrial-demand signal.
Silver to Copper Ratio: Charlie Quant Lab
That is the core tension. Gold and oil say risk-off, silver and copper say industrial growth, and silver gets squeezed between the two regimes.
Put together, the three charts point to a clear pecking order into year-end.
The Gold, Silver, and Copper Forecast Into End-2026
Copper is the structural leader. The AI and grid demand story is the strongest multi-year case of the three, but the chart has stalled at a double top, and most 2026 bank targets imply a near-term pullback from record levels.
Gold is the macro anchor. It carries the widest bank disagreement, a $1,100 gap between Goldman at $4,900 and JPMorgan at $6,000, and it leads only if stress and rate cuts dominate.
Silver is the high-beta wildcard. It lags both, yet a record supply deficit and a building double bottom give it the most catch-up room if either the macro or the industrial bid strengthens.
Gold Silver Copper 2026 Scorecard: BeInCrypto
The dollar is the switch. So while the DXY holds above 100, the complex stays capped, and copper’s $6.12 is the line that separates a fresh AI-led leg higher from a double-top unwind that pulls silver and gold down too. All thanks to the positive correlation between the three.

Cardano (ADA) network activity barely changed after the Leios Musashi Dojo testnet went live on June 23, with daily transactions flat and active addresses near four-month lows.
The launch marks a major step for Cardano’s scaling plan. Yet the on-chain data and social signals tell a more cautious story about whether users have noticed.
The Testnet Barely Moved Cardano’s Network Activity
The headline event did little to the chain itself. Daily transactions held near 25,000, in line with the past three months, with no lasting lift after the testnet went live. The testnet is the first live trial of a scaling upgrade built for far higher throughput, a step toward a planned 2026 mainnet.
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The one clear surge came on June 4 and 5, when transactions jumped above 60,000. That spike lined up with a sharp sell-off, so it appears to reflect liquidation activity rather than fresh adoption.
Cardano active staking addresses tell a softer story. The count of distinct staking accounts transacting each day fell to about 5,000 on June 21, a 120-day low, against a 7,000 to 8,000 norm earlier in the window.
Cardano Activity Versus ADA Price: Dune
Fewer active accounts points to thinner everyday demand, which suggests the upgrade buzz has not drawn users back.
Note: That figure uses Dune’s stake-address method, so it runs lower than broader trackers that count every payment address. The direction, not the absolute level, is the point.
So the network looks quiet, but ADA on-chain data is only one lens. Crowd mood often moves first.
Social Sentiment Still Leans Positive
Cardano sentiment has held up better than the price slump would suggest. Santiment’s positive sentiment score sits at 8.29, against a negative score of 3.13, so optimism still outweighs fear by more than two to one.
Positive sentiment also spiked toward 30 during the testnet launch, far above the negative readings over the same stretch. The crowd appears to still see a reason for patience.
ADA Positive Versus Negative Sentiment: Santiment
Sentiment is a soft signal, however. Money flows show whether that optimism comes with conviction.
Exchange Outflows Point to Accumulation, but Fading
The ADA exchange outflows trend has stayed constructive. Spot exchange netflow, a metric that tracks coins moving onto and off exchanges, has printed a net outflow every week since early May.
Net outflows usually suggest holders are moving coins into self-custody, a pattern often read as quiet accumulation. There has not been a single week of net inflow since mid-May, which would point to building sell pressure.
But the catch is the size. Weekly net outflows shrank from about $27 million in mid-May to just $4.53 million for the week ending June 22, a drop of more than 80%.
ADA Spot Exchange Netflow: CoinGlass
So the buying pressure is still there, aligning with the positive sentiment, but it is thinning fast. That tension defines where Cardano stands now.
What Cardano’s Network Needs Next
The contrarian read is simple. A landmark testnet arrived, and the chain barely reacted. Leios is a promise aimed at a late-2026 mainnet, not a switch that lifts demand today. For now, Cardano network activity is flat, addresses are sliding, and the catalysts that matter are still months away.
The hope is real but thin. Positive sentiment and steady, if shrinking, exchange outflows suggest holders have not given up, even as the latest Cardano news cycle failed to spark usage. Sustained growth in active addresses separates a real Leios-driven revival from a network still trading on promise.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken above 100 to its highest level since May 2025, signaling fresh pressure on risk assets heading into summer.
Historically, a rising dollar drains liquidity from global markets and weighs on both equities and cryptocurrencies. The latest breakout suggests a difficult few months ahead for traders.
A Stronger Dollar Spells Trouble for Risk Assets
The dollar index tracks the greenback against six major currencies. When it climbs, dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin and equities often retreat.
That inverse correlation has held through much of 2026. Meanwhile, a hawkish Federal Reserve has fueled the latest leg higher.
The central bank held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17 and hinted at possible hikes. Consumer prices rose 4.2% in May, the hottest reading since April 2023.
Higher-for-longer rates support the dollar and pull capital away from speculative assets. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $62,368, down nearly 3% over 24 hours.
Equities have wobbled in tandem as investors brace for tighter financial conditions. A firmer dollar also raises costs for foreign borrowers, tightening liquidity worldwide.
Macro analyst Ted Pillows expects more dollar upside.
$DXY wants to go higher. This means stocks and crypto could go lower. pic.twitter.com/d4pOExjpX6
— Ted (@TedPillows) June 22, 2026
Speculators Crowd Into the US Dollar Index as a Year-Long Range Tightens
A separate chart of non-commercial positioning shows speculators heavily long the dollar. Net long bets have spiked toward $28 billion, near the highs of 2024 and 2025.
The DXY has traded inside a tight range for more than a year. Now it is pressing against the top of that range.
Crowded positioning can act as a contrarian caution. However, similar dollar strength preceded the powerful 2021 and 2022 rally.
Non-commercial dollar positions / Source: Saxo
For now, the weight of positioning leans bullish. A decisive breakout would likely accelerate selling across risk markets.
Either way, the range has compressed for too long to stay quiet. A resolution in either direction carries weight for traders.
DXY Technical Outlook Points Toward 102 and 103
On the daily chart, DXY closed near 101.17 after clearing resistance between 100.0 and 100.6. Price is riding an ascending trendline from the February low near 95.5.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning up toward 70, a sign of building momentum. The next DXY target sits near 102, the May 2025 swing-high zone.
DXY daily chart / Source: Tradingview
The four-hour chart confirms the move. Price broke out of an ascending channel around June 18, with a measured target close to 102.
A push through that level would open the door to resistance between 103.0 and 103.3. Both timeframes point to the same upside path.
DXY 4-hourly chart / Source: Tradingview
Support now rests at the 100 shelf and the rising trendline. A drop back below 100 would weaken the bullish case and offer relief to Bitcoin and stocks.
For now, momentum favors the dollar. Whether that strength holds will likely decide the summer for crypto and equities.

DeXe (DEXE) defied a falling crypto market on Tuesday, surging roughly 70% in 24 hours as a violent short squeeze forced bearish traders to cover their positions.
The move pushed DEXE to a fresh yearly high near $24 while Bitcoin and most altcoins traded in the red. Derivatives data show the rally came from leverage, not fresh spot demand.
Record Open Interest Fueled the Short Squeeze
DEXE open interest climbed to roughly $70 million on Tuesday, the highest reading on record. That spike arrived as price went vertical, a classic sign of forced positioning rather than steady accumulation.
DEXE open interest / Source: Coinglass
Coinglass data shows shorts have been the punished side for months. Red short-liquidation bars dominate the chart, while long liquidations stayed small throughout.
DEXE total liquidations / Source: Coinglass
The decisive blow came from a short-liquidation cascade worth about $1.3 million, the largest on the chart. That wave of forced buybacks mechanically drove the 70% candle and extended a multi-month rally.
Fading Volume Warns the Rally Could Stall
The squeeze looks powerful, yet the weekly chart flashes warning signs. DEXE has retraced almost its entire 2025 decline, climbing from near $1.73 back to the $24.20 ceiling that has capped its price since February 2025.
This week’s candle tagged that level and got rejected, closing near $23.50. Price reclaimed the 0.618 Fibonacci support around $15.60, which keeps the structure bullish for now.
DEXE weekly chart / Source: Tradingview
However, weekly volume is falling as price prints new highs. The relative strength index shows bearish divergence, sliding since April even as DEXE climbs to a fresh high.
Both signals suggest the move lacks a strong buying base. The pattern echoes other leverage-driven altcoins that spiked and then faded.
DEXE Price Could Target $30 if the Squeeze Holds
Meanwhile, the daily chart frames the bull case. A cup-and-handle pattern has formed since October 2025, with a breakout in May, a retest of support, and the current push higher.
That pattern projects a measured target near $30, which aligns with the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $30.31. DEXE traded around $22.88 at publication, just below the $24.20 resistance.
DEXE daily chart / Source: Tradingview
The thesis needs two things to hold. Price must break and close above $24.20, and the RSI must reclaim the 70 level to confirm momentum, according to one chart analysis.
A failure there would hand control back to sellers. With the rally built on leverage rather than spot demand, DEXE faces a binary test at long-term resistance. The next weekly close should decide the direction.

SpaceX shares (SPCX) have fallen below the $150 IPO price, with the market cap falling below $2 trillion for the first time since public market debut.
The drop extends SPCX value far below last week’s $225.64 peak. Traders now question whether the rally outran the company’s fundamentals.
SpaceX Shares Price and Market Cap. Source: Google Finance SpaceX Stock Loses the $2 Trillion Threshold
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share and opened near $150 on June 12. At roughly $75 billion, it stands as the largest Nasdaq debut on record.
The stock then climbed to an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16 before reversing. Its market value still held near $2.22 trillion at Monday’s close.
The selloff accelerated after the company launched its first bond offering. The senior notes deal aims to raise at least $20 billion.
Proceeds will repay a bridge loan and fund AI and data-center projects. SpaceX also disclosed a cash pile of about $100.8 billion.
Now, the company’s stock price has fallen below its $150 opening price, with its market cap dropping under $2 trillion to mark the first such reading since the debut.
SpaceX Shares Price. Source: TradingView
The steep post-IPO slide has pushed many open-market buyers toward breakeven or into the red.
*SPACEX FALLS 3.9% TO DROP BELOW TRADING DEBUT’S OPEN PRICEEveryone who bought after the IPO is now underwater
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 23, 2026
Five Proxies to Watch as the Sell-Off Spreads
SpaceX’s debut pulled both cash and attention from smaller listed space names. The Monday selloff hit them unevenly, splitting the high-beta pure-plays from the large-cap anchors.
Alphabet offers the steadiest exposure. Its roughly 6% stake dates to a 2015 investment of about $900 million. At a $2 trillion valuation, that holding could top $100 billion. Its 5% Monday drop tracked AI-talent departures, not the space rotation, but has also fallen in tandem with SPCX.
Rocket Lab is the closest listed launch rival, building its Neutron rocket to challenge Falcon 9. It became the first pure-play space stock in the Nasdaq-100 on June 22, yet still fell 8%. Its order backlog reached $2.2 billion last quarter.
T-Mobile barely moved. With a beta near 0.3, the Starlink T-Satellite partner trades as a defensive holding rather than a space bet.
AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines took the hardest hits. ASTS, a direct satellite-to-phone competitor, has shed nearly a quarter of its value in the past month.
LUNR flies its NASA lunar landers on Falcon 9. It has fallen about a third over the same span. A planned $500 million equity raise and rising short interest add to the pressure.
Whether SpaceX itself can justify a multitrillion-dollar price tag remains a bubble or breakout debate. Nevertheless, Susquehanna initiated SpaceX with a Neutral rating and a $170 price target, citing strong growth prospects but a demanding valuation.
The firm expects revenue to surge through 2030, driven by launches, Starlink and AI.
“However, analysts recommend waiting for a better entry point, pointing to risks including Starship delays, Starlink competition and uncertainty around AI-related revenue,” Walter reported.
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What to Watch Next
The next few sessions will show whether $2 trillion becomes a floor or another level down. The bond sale is testing investor appetite, with the rally already more than 30% below its peak.
Either way, the broader space complex may keep taking its cue from SPCX.