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12 years ago today, Michael Saylor said Bitcoin’s days were numbered. Today, his company is among the world’s largest Bitcoin holders.
BOJ Rate Decision Ahead: Market Risk in Focus
Crypto markets saw $150 million in long positions liquidated over the last 30 minutes, signaling a sharp short-term sell-off.
The Bank of Japan announces its rate decision tomorrow, with markets pricing a 98.4% chance of a 25 bps hike.
Past BOJ hikes hit Bitcoin short term:
Jul 31, 2024: Rates raised to 0.25%, BTC fell 26% in 8 days
Jan 24, 2025: Rates raised to 0.50%, BTC dropped 25% in 20 days
This time, BOJ is expected to lift rates to 0.75%, the highest since 1995. History suggests near-term downside is possible, but previous BOJ-led BTC sell-offs were followed by strong rebounds and new all-time highs.
$ETH $BTC
Crypto markets saw $150 million in long positions liquidated over the last 30 minutes, signaling a sharp short-term sell-off.
The Bank of Japan announces its rate decision tomorrow, with markets pricing a 98.4% chance of a 25 bps hike.
Past BOJ hikes hit Bitcoin short term:
Jul 31, 2024: Rates raised to 0.25%, BTC fell 26% in 8 days
Jan 24, 2025: Rates raised to 0.50%, BTC dropped 25% in 20 days
This time, BOJ is expected to lift rates to 0.75%, the highest since 1995. History suggests near-term downside is possible, but previous BOJ-led BTC sell-offs were followed by strong rebounds and new all-time highs.
$ETH $BTC
Goldman Sachs’ latest client survey shows a positive outlook on equities heading into 2026. About 47% of respondents are slightly bullish on the S&P 500, while 14% are outright bullish.
Confidence in the U.S. economy is also strong, with 85% expecting real GDP growth between 1.5% and 3.5% next year.
However, sentiment on corporate bonds is more cautious, as most expect credit spreads to widen. Clients generally see lower Treasury yields ahead and remain divided on the outlook for AI investments.
#SP500 #SPX
Confidence in the U.S. economy is also strong, with 85% expecting real GDP growth between 1.5% and 3.5% next year.
However, sentiment on corporate bonds is more cautious, as most expect credit spreads to widen. Clients generally see lower Treasury yields ahead and remain divided on the outlook for AI investments.
#SP500 #SPX
US Inflation Cools Sharply: November CPI Falls to 2.7%
US inflation cooled sharply in November, with headline CPI falling to 2.7% YoY and core CPI easing to 2.6%, both well below market expectations. This marks the biggest drop in inflation since March 2025 and the lowest core inflation reading since March 2021.
The softer data strengthens the disinflation trend and eases pressure on the Federal Reserve. Bond markets reacted with 2-year US Treasury yields down to 3.45%, while the yield curve remained positive.
Markets see higher odds of a 25 bp Fed rate cut, though a January move still looks uncertain. For now, the data supports easing ahead, but policymakers may wait for further confirmation.
#CPIWatch
The softer data strengthens the disinflation trend and eases pressure on the Federal Reserve. Bond markets reacted with 2-year US Treasury yields down to 3.45%, while the yield curve remained positive.
Markets see higher odds of a 25 bp Fed rate cut, though a January move still looks uncertain. For now, the data supports easing ahead, but policymakers may wait for further confirmation.
#CPIWatch
U.S. CPI U.S. consumer inflation in November is expected to post its strongest year-on-year rise in about 18 months, reflecting persistent cost pressures and the impact of import tariffs on prices.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release headline and core CPI data on Tuesday. However, month-to-month figures won’t be available because October data was disrupted by the 43-day government shutdown.
With limited short-term indicators, economists suggest focusing on annual inflation trends or combined two-month changes to better gauge underlying price momentum.
#CPIWatch #SPX
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release headline and core CPI data on Tuesday. However, month-to-month figures won’t be available because October data was disrupted by the 43-day government shutdown.
With limited short-term indicators, economists suggest focusing on annual inflation trends or combined two-month changes to better gauge underlying price momentum.
#CPIWatch #SPX
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $459.24 million, ending a recent run of outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC led with $391.49 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT added $113.12 million.
Some funds still saw selling. Ark’s ARKB recorded $36.96 million in outflows, and Bitwise’s BITB lost $8.41 million.
In contrast, spot Ether ETFs posted a fifth straight day of net outflows, losing $22.43 million. BlackRock’s ETHA led with a $19.61 million withdrawal, followed by Fidelity’s FETH at $2.81 million.
Some funds still saw selling. Ark’s ARKB recorded $36.96 million in outflows, and Bitwise’s BITB lost $8.41 million.
In contrast, spot Ether ETFs posted a fifth straight day of net outflows, losing $22.43 million. BlackRock’s ETHA led with a $19.61 million withdrawal, followed by Fidelity’s FETH at $2.81 million.
JPMorgan withdrew nearly $350bn from its Fed cash balance since 2023, cutting it from $409bn to $63bn.
Over the same period, it raised US Treasury holdings from $231bn to $450bn.
The shift helps lock in higher yields ahead of expected interest rate cuts.
#SPX
Over the same period, it raised US Treasury holdings from $231bn to $450bn.
The shift helps lock in higher yields ahead of expected interest rate cuts.
#SPX
Bitcoin jumped more than $3,000 in an hour, reclaiming the $90,000 level as around $120 million in leveraged short positions were liquidated, fueling a sharp upside move.
Minutes later, the trend flipped. Roughly $200 million in leveraged long positions were wiped out, sending Bitcoin back down toward $86,000.
In less than two hours, the rapid back-and-forth erased and added roughly $140 billion in market value, highlighting extreme volatility driven by leverage. $BTC
Minutes later, the trend flipped. Roughly $200 million in leveraged long positions were wiped out, sending Bitcoin back down toward $86,000.
In less than two hours, the rapid back-and-forth erased and added roughly $140 billion in market value, highlighting extreme volatility driven by leverage. $BTC
Bitcoin whipsawed hard: surged ~$3,300 in 30 minutes, wiping out $106M in shorts — then reversed, dropping ~$3,400 over the next 45 minutes and liquidating $52M in longs.
Two Matrixport-linked wallets sent 4,000 $BTC, worth $347.56 million, to Binance today, according to Lookonchain.
BlackRock clients offloaded $210.96M worth of Bitcoin and $220.72M worth of Ethereum, signaling sizable profit-taking across both major cryptocurrencies.
Japan may delay shifting crypto gains to a flat 20% tax until January 2028, later than the market-expected 2027 rollout, according to political sources.
Officials want to first review investor protection outcomes under upcoming amendments to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act before changing the tax framework.
As a result, crypto profits are likely to remain taxed as “miscellaneous income” (up to 55%) for longer than anticipated.
Source: CoinDesk Japan $BTC $ETH
Officials want to first review investor protection outcomes under upcoming amendments to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act before changing the tax framework.
As a result, crypto profits are likely to remain taxed as “miscellaneous income” (up to 55%) for longer than anticipated.
Source: CoinDesk Japan $BTC $ETH
Farside Investors data shows that yesterday Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $277.2 million, while Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $224.2 million. $BTC $ETH
JUST IN: Michael Saylor says quantum computing won’t break Bitcoin — instead, it will make the network even stronger and more secure. $BTC
US Corporate Bankruptcies Surge to 15-Year High
Corporate stress in the United States is intensifying. In 2025 so far, 717 large US companies have filed for bankruptcy, the highest count in 15 years, already above every full-year total since 2010.
The trend is persistent. November saw 62 filings, after 68 in October and 66 in September. Overall, bankruptcies are running ~30% above the 2011–2024 annual average and are up 93% vs 2022.
What’s worrying: the damage is broad-based, not limited to weak or speculative firms. Stress is largely outside the AI trade, hitting industrials, consumer names, and leveraged businesses.
High interest rates, refinancing pressure, and slowing demand are squeezing cash flows. Even large, established companies are struggling to stay afloat.
At current levels, corporate bankruptcies are consistent with recession-like conditions in the US economy, a clear warning sign for growth, credit markets, and risk assets.
#spy #QQQ #SPX #BankruptcyUpdate
The trend is persistent. November saw 62 filings, after 68 in October and 66 in September. Overall, bankruptcies are running ~30% above the 2011–2024 annual average and are up 93% vs 2022.
What’s worrying: the damage is broad-based, not limited to weak or speculative firms. Stress is largely outside the AI trade, hitting industrials, consumer names, and leveraged businesses.
High interest rates, refinancing pressure, and slowing demand are squeezing cash flows. Even large, established companies are struggling to stay afloat.
At current levels, corporate bankruptcies are consistent with recession-like conditions in the US economy, a clear warning sign for growth, credit markets, and risk assets.
#spy #QQQ #SPX #BankruptcyUpdate
BlackRock transferred 47,463 ETH, valued at ~$140 million, to Coinbase, according to OnchainLens. $ETH
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