Price has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly timeframe, which historically carries a high probability of further downside.
On top of that, a major support level got flipped into resistance and has been respected on every retest since.
What adds even more confluence is that most of the upside liquidity has already been swept during this relief rally.
That leaves roughly $30B in long liquidations below, which would get taken out if price revisits $60K. This means max pain definitely sits on the downside.
And here’s the part most people are ignoring.
$60K was reached just three months into the bear market. If this were to be the bottom, it would mean that this entire cycle played out four times faster than any previous one.
If you still want to believe that this is bullish and that this rally will continue, go for it.
The last 3 weekly candles have all been green, but with weak, slow upside, without real impulsive strength and barely any wicks below.
With the last candle we swept the recent range highs but closed clearly below, confirming a HTF liquidity sweep.
Now the new weekly candle opened and immediately pushed back up, leaving no wick below again which is usually manipulation signals.
Most of the time, we see this at the start of the week, a strong push into one direction to lure people into trade just to make the real move later the week.
Right now, it looks like we’re in that manipulation phase where we first confirmed a bearish liquidity sweep but keep pumping into the start of the new week just to reverse later trapping all of the late longs.
Candle by candle, we are getting closer to the top.
I'm keeping this limit order open because price often gets to retail stop-losses before reversing.
We remain in a range. The only warning signal so far is this shitcoin bullrun. Many of them are pumping. If this spreads to alts then I might have to review my theory on Bitcoin.