Jessavio

Market Outlook: The November 2025 CPI Impact and the Digital Asset Washout
Date: December 18, 2025
Market Sentiment:
Featured Infographic Concept: "The Macroeconomic Shadow"
The central visual depicts a high-contrast digital terminal displaying the headline "November 2025 CPI: 3.1% YoY."  A large, translucent bear silhouette looms over a downward-trending red line graph, with its paws resting on the $90,000 resistance mark for Bitcoin.  Holographic symbols for BTC, ETH, and ETC appear fractured, displaying 24-hour declines while a 10-year Treasury note gauge shows a yield of 4.16%.  A news ticker at the bottom scrolls with the headline: "$1,776 Warrior Dividend Payout for Military Personnel."

I. The Statistical Vacuum: November 2025 CPI Analysis
Following the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30 AM ET today.  The report confirms a persistent inflationary environment that complicates the Federal Reserve’s path toward a 2% target.
Metric
September 2025 (Actual)
November 2025 (Actual)
Directional Sentiment
Headline CPI (YoY)
3.0%
3.1%
Hawkish / Persistent
Core CPI (YoY)
3.0%
3.1%
Hawkish / Persistent
Shelter Index (YoY)
3.6%
3.6%
Sticky
Energy Index (YoY)
2.8
The 3.1% YoY headline rate matches analyst forecasts but marks the highest level since May 2024. Because the October report was canceled, the BLS cannot provide official month-over-month (MoM) changes for November, leaving investors to rely on two-month cumulative data and "different cell" imputations that have reached record highs of 40%.
​II. Digital Asset Outlook: A Decidedly Bearish (Barish) Reality
​The cryptocurrency market is currently enduring a significant "washout." The "high accurate" CPI data showing sticky inflation has combined with weak tech earnings and regulatory delays to create a perfect storm for risk assets.
​1. Bitcoin (BTC): Struggling at Resistance
​Bitcoin is trading at approximately $86,298, a daily decline of 2.22%.
​Technical Status: Bearish on daily and 4-hour charts. The 50-day moving average is falling, suggesting a weakening short-term trend.
​Sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 32 (Fear).
​Key Resistance: $90,000–$94,000. BTC pulled back as the US Senate put a key crypto market structure bill on hold.
​2. Ethereum (ETH): Technical Fragility
​Ethereum is underperforming the benchmark, trading at $2,836 after a 3.90% to 4.42% drop in the last 24 hours.
​Indicators: "Strong Sell" technical summary. The RSI (14) has dipped into the 31-35 range, signaling a lack of buyer momentum.
​Flows: Neutral institutional flows into ETFs have failed to provide a price floor.
​3. Ethereum Classic (ETC): The Structural Sell
​ETC represents the weakest profile among major assets, trading at $12.01 with a 6.46% 24-hour decline.
​Miner Attrition: The network’s hash rate has dropped 18% since October as AI data centers compete for the same energy resources.
​Technical Breakdown: ETC has breached critical support at $12.82 and is trading below its 200-day EMA ($17.70).
​III. The Federal Reserve and Macroeconomic Context
​On December 10, the FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. However, the committee's "dot plot" signaled only one additional cut for 2026, a move that disappointed markets expecting more aggressive easing.
​Fixed Income: The 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.16%, maintaining high borrowing costs that pressure digital assets.
​US Dollar (DXY): The Dollar Index wavered around 98.4 following the CPI print, as investors move toward a "risk-off" stance while assessing the next Fed Chair contest between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett.
​IV. Conclusion and 2026 Outlook
​The economy enters 2026 with a dual-narrative: strong policy tailwinds from potential AI maturity and the proposed $1,776 "Warrior Dividend," but high risk from persistent "sticky" inflation and government shutdown gaps. For digital assets, the current "Barish" trend is likely to persist until institutional demand shocks or clear $BTC regulatory breakthroughs occur
#USNonFarmPayrollReport #BinanceBlockchainWeek #CPIWatch #blcakrock #CPIWatch #BinanceBlockchainWeek
$BTC

Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Leading to Strong Upside Momentum

The Ethereum 15-minute chart shows a clear symmetrical triangle pattern forming between the swing highs (S1, S2, S3) and the consistent base supports (B1, B2, B3). This consolidation phase created compression, signalling a potential breakout setup for traders.
Key Levels and Price Behavior

Support Zone: Around $2,713 – $2,720, repeatedly tested without breakdown

Resistance Zone: $2,829 – $2,831, the upper breakout target

Triangle Pattern: Lower highs + static support indicated an upcoming volatility expansion

The breakout occurred near Out1, with price pushing through the descending trendline and confirming bullish momentum. Volume spikes during the breakout supported the move upward, leading price toward the key resistance zone.
Bullish & Bearish Outlook
Bullish Scenario: Breakout above the triangle triggered a long position, targeting the $2,830 zone, which was successfully reached.
Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below support (~$2,700) would have confirmed the red arrow projection toward deeper correction levels.
Trader TakeawayThis setup highlights how triangle compression often signals a strong directional move. ETH rewarded patient traders who waited for confirmation and entered on the breakout retest.
#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoTrading #ETHAnalysis #TriangleBreakout
$ETH

B
i
Btcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $84,792. The market is moving inside a short-term range. Immediate support is seen near $82,000, and if this level breaks, the next supports are $80,000 and $75,000. Resistance remains at $87,200, and a strong breakout above $90,000 could$ open the path toward $95,000 to $100,000. For traders, BTC is still in a consolidation zone. A rejection near $87.2k may lead to a drop toward $82k. A confirmed close above $90k is needed for bullish continuation.
Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,770. The price is holding above the important support zone of $2,700. If ETH drops below $2,600, a deeper correction toward $2,400 to $2,500 is possible. On the upside, resistance is visible at $2,880 to $2,900, and a breakout above this zone can push ETH toward $3,100. The price structure shows mild oversold signals, but a clear bullish reversal is not confirmed yet. Traders may look for bounce opportunities near $2,700, but a break below $2,600 can attract stro$ng selling pressure.
Overall market sentiment remains cautious due to weak liquidity and macro uncertainties. Both BTC and ETH are trading in tight ranges, and a major move could happen once price and volume align. Traders should use proper risk management, lower leverage, and wait for confirmed breakouts.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #CryptoMarket #CryptoAnalysis #PriceAction #DayTrading $#swingtrading #CryptoTraders #MarketUpdate #HODL