🔥This is a silver market development for the history books:
Silver imports SPIKED +78% in March, ~836 tonnes, AN ALL-TIME HIGH, according to Chinese customs data.
Chinese silver imports last month exceeded the 10-year seasonal average for March by +173%.
Year-to-date, China has imported ~1,626 tonnes of silver, the MOST EVER.
This comes as retail investors piled into small silver bars as a lower-cost alternative to gold, while solar manufacturers front-loaded production ahead of the removal of export tax rebates on April 1.
The global solar industry consumes ~20% of total annual silver supply, with activity overwhelmingly concentrated in China.
As a result, strong domestic demand pushed Chinese silver prices well above international market prices, prompting traders to ship silver from across the world to capture the arbitrage opportunity.
China's demand for silver is rewriting the record books.
The Fed may be easing again without calling it QE.
In June 2022, the Federal Reserve began quantitative tightening. That means it allowed bonds to mature without replacing them, steadily shrinking the balance sheet and pulling liquidity out of the financial system.
Over the next few years, roughly $2.4 trillion was removed as the balance sheet fell from peak levels.
Then in late 2025, that decline stopped.
The Fed’s balance sheet bottomed near $6.54 trillion and has now risen to around $6.71 trillion. That is roughly $170 billion added back from the lows.
No major QE announcement or headline emergency program was launched.
But the direction changed.
That matters because balance sheet expansion increases system liquidity. More liquidity usually supports risk assets because excess capital starts moving into equities, crypto, and higher beta trades.
Since that reversal:
• Small caps have strengthened • Bitcoin has recovered sharply • Broader risk appetite has improved
This does not mean every rally is caused by the Fed, but liquidity conditions matter more than most people realize.
Many investors only watch interest rates.
But balance sheet policy often moves markets before rate cuts even begin.
The Fed may not be easing loudly, but it may already be easing quietly.
A new all-time high less than 30 days after what has been dubbed the "war crash" with the start of the US-Iran war.
+19% in 23 days since the March 31 low.
$6.7 trillion in market capitalization has been added to the index, of which $3.5 trillion has been added since the war officially began.
Today, the Nasdaq is 10% higher than its level before the first shot was fired.
All this is happening while oil is above $101, the Strait of Hormuz is half-closed, and the IMF has lowered its global growth forecast to 3.1%.
- The lesson the public refuses to learn: The market doesn't price in what's happening today, but rather what it expects to happen in 6 to 12 months.
- The average investor sold at the first shot and lost twice: Once by selling at the bottom, and again by lacking the courage to buy in a time of fear.
Institutions did the opposite, betting on the narrative that artificial intelligence operates according to its own logic, and on the inevitability of a ceasefire.
Today, Trump extended the truce with Iran indefinitely, and the market is reaping the rewards of this gamble.
From the Gulf War of 1991 to Iraq in 2003 to Iran in 2026,
History tells the same story: Wars are short-lived noise, but the American economy is a long-term machine.
The question that should haunt you until the next crisis is: Did you buy on March 31st?
Or are you among those counting losses today and wishing you could turn back time?
Hedge funds now hold a record 8% of all outstanding US Treasuries, out of a total market of $31 trillion.
Holdings have MORE THAN DOUBLED since 2022.
To hold these positions, hedge funds borrow heavily through repo markets and prime brokerage lines, which are short-term loans backed by Treasuries. Combined, this borrowing now exceeds $6 trillion.
Overall, hedge funds provide significant liquidity through positions in Treasuries, futures, and related derivatives.
Any forced unwind of these leveraged positions could send shockwaves through global bond and equity markets.