Cryptorian_Emraan

‎Markets now imply a 66% chance $BTC bitcoin falls below $55,000 and a coin-flip chance of sub-$50,000 prices before year-end.
‎What to know:
Prediction market traders see a strong chance chance that bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year, with meaningful odds it could drop under $40,000.‎Heavy outflows from U.S. bitcoin ETFs and investors’ growing preference for high-flying AI stocks are pressuring bitcoin, which has slumped toward $65,000.‎While traders are increasingly bearish on bitcoin’s near-term performance versus assets like gold, money is shifting into stablecoins such as USDT and USDC rather than leaving crypto altogether.
‎Prediction market traders are increasingly wagering that bitcoin's correction is far from over, even after the cryptocurrency tumbled toward $65,000 this week amid mounting pressure from ETF outflows and weakening institutional demand.
‎On Kalshi, traders currently assign a 66% probability that bitcoin drops below $55,000 this year and a 50% probability of sub-$50,000 prices. They also give a 31% chance that prices could even dip below $40,000.
‎‎Polymarket traders are expressing a similar view. Contracts on the platform imply a roughly 67% chance bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year and a better-than-even chance it drops under $50,000.
‎‎On prediction platform Polymarket, traders now give bitcoin only a 30% chance of outperforming gold in 2026. Gold is down approximately 1.5% in the last month but is up 33% in the last year while BTC is down around 37%.
‎This comes amid dwindling institutional appetite for the leading cryptocurrency. According to data from SoSo Value, traders withdrew $2.4 billion from U.S.-listed BTC ETFs in May and $1 billion in the first two trading days of June, with the record-breaking outflow continuing.
‎‎Meanwhile, K33 Research argues that bitcoin is also losing a battle for investor attention against artificial intelligence-related stocks. As CoinDesk previously reported, in a report on Tuesday, the firm said many investors view the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin as too high while AI-linked companies continue to post outsized gains and major equity indexes push to record highs.
‎‎"Much of the market views the opportunity cost of holding BTC as too high while anything AI-related soars," K33's Vetle Lunde wrote.
‎While K33 still views bitcoin as undervalued relative to equities over the long term, prediction markets suggest traders are increasingly positioning for lower prices before any recovery arrives.
‎‎While traders increasingly bet on lower bitcoin prices, capital does not appear to be leaving crypto entirely. Instead, it is increasingly moving into digital dollars.
‎USDT and USDC have both gained market share during bitcoin's slide to $66,000, CoinDesk previously reported, a sign that traders are raising cash and waiting for better opportunities rather than immediately buying the dip.
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