CRYPTO MECHANIC

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This is probably how the current market condition will end Or you can say this is how Bear Market move ends.

The market usually goes through a sharp and painful drop first. I’ve seen this phase shake out a lot of traders. Panic sets in, people sell at a loss, and it feels like things will never recover. But eventually, the price finds a bottom.

Once the bottom is in, the market enters a long and frustrating consolidation phase. This is the period where prices move sideways within a range. It feels like nothing is happening. Volatility drops, interest fades, and most traders and investors lose patience. Many will give up during this phase, either selling at a loss or simply walking away due to boredom or frustration.

But this is exactly where the real opportunity lies. The consolidation zone is where smart money starts accumulating, slowly and silently. It’s not flashy and won’t make headlines, but this is when serious positioning begins. Retail investors often miss this phase because they expect a quick rebound, but the market doesn’t usually move that way.

I do not know at what phase of the market we are right and where the bottom will be, I am not someone who tries to find the exact bottoms. But i do know we are going to have a great opportunity soon.

Explaining why Bitcoin dropped on the news that Japan will hike interest rates

I know I’m a little late to explain this, but it’s still important to understand what actually happened.

First, one important correction
The immediate impact you see on the chart was not institutions. Big banks and institutions don’t react that fast. That first sharp move was mostly retail and algos reacting to the headline.

Moves driven by news like this usually have a delayed impact when it comes to institutions.

Now the bigger picture

For years, Japan’s near zero interest rates made the Japanese Yen the funding currency. Institutions borrowed Yen cheaply, converted it to USD, and deployed that capital into higher yield assets stocks, bonds, and maybe Bitcoin.

This is known as Yen carry trade.

Here’s where it gets interesting.
The US is cutting rates, while Japan is hiking rates.
This squeezes institutions on both sides.

Funding in Yen becomes more expensive
Returns in USD start coming down
The carry trade becomes less attractive

That’s where the real pressure comes from and that impact shows up later, not instantly. I think 2026 will unfold so many things.

A few more rate hikes from Japan and rate cuts from the Fed can really turn things around.

$BTC Got rejected from the mid range two times and retested the range lows as well as we discussed in my last update.

One thing i am liking here is despite continuous sell pressure Bitcoin is still holding the range low. I am pretty sure a lot traders may have shorted it around the lows because traders pay so much attention to the candle bodies and last two days candles were good enough to attract short sellers.

$90k is the key area to watch if price manage to break and hold above that, I think we will see $93k again and probably a breakout of that as well.

$HYPE From $31 to 22
Reading charts is this simple, When price breaks a key zone, you simply expect it to continue to the downside or upside depending on which way its breaking.

It’s been 5 days, and my family and I have been fighting flu, cough, body aches, and fever

Prayers needed.

Bitcoin is still trading within the daily range.
US inflation (CPI) data is due today, expect some Volatility during the NaY session.

The market will go up once you all stop getting excited over a 1% move.

Nice price action guys, Very organic

Throwback to 2016–2017, when we were trading Altcoins against BTC (XRPBTC, ETHBTC), not USDT.

No endless stablecoin pairs. No hundreds of new coins every week.
Spot trading was king, and futures had barely 5–10 coins at most.

The market structure was simple.
Fewer coins, less noise, and far less manipulation.

You bought spot
You waited
You sold only to take profit or cut loss

No 50x–100x leverage.
No constant shorting.
No funding rate games.
No algos hunting every small move.

That was the era when we witnessed the greatest altseason of all time.

Today we have:
Infinite leverage
Perpetual shorts
Too many tokens
Too much noise
Way less patience
And worst tokenomics

Good old days, Probably never coming back

$ASTER New Low

Remember what crypto mechanic told you when $XPL was launched?

Its down 90%

Bitcoin continues to trade within the range, Tapped range low yesterday and bounced. $88200 - 89200 will be a key zone to watch. It is the mid range and the zone price broke yesterday.

Reclaim Above mid range - Price can go for $93k again
As long as its below 89200 - it can go for range lows once again.

As the price is ranging we have to focus on these levels, personally i will just avoid this chop as i have been, As a SPOT only trader the risk and reward here is not attractive.

I’ve been thinking about this for a long time, so I thought I’d share it with you.

I keep asking myself: what is left that can actually pump crypto now?

We’ve already had almost every bullish catalyst:

We had a pro crypto US government.
We had ETFs.
We had Saylor buying billions he almost $2B in the last two weeks.
We had institutional demand and DATs
We were expecting rate cuts to pump the market. we got three consecutive rate cuts, and still nothing happened.

At the same time, Gold, Silver, Nasdaq and SPX are all at all-time highs.
Historically, crypto moves with the same macro and liquidity forces.

But this time, crypto just didn’t perform.

When I think about all this, one question keeps coming up:

What does crypto actually need to move?

Or are we simply at a stage where all the good news is already priced in, and price now needs time rather than news?

This isn’t panic.
Just an honest thought.

Genuinely curious what you guys do when the market is like this.?

I don’t even remember the last time I shared a buy setup for altcoins. It’s mostly been BTC since prices broke the uptrend.

Personally, I’m just sitting on the sidelines and watching the market. I haven’t got any entry trigger. This is not the kind of market that favours my trading style.

$BTC Update on the pattern i shared and said we might see some volatility this week.
It didn’t hold that low and dropped further. My guess for a breakout to the upside was obviously wrong.

What’s next?
When price breaks a key zone, things usually become pretty clear for the next move.

As long as price doesn’t reclaim the broken zone, you simply expect it to continue its trend.

Besides the lower timeframe moves, we are still within a range the same range I’ve been sharing for the last two weeks.

$ASTER Update

New Binance low soon?

What will happen with $BTC if Saylor stop buying?

$BTC was ~$92k five days ago.
Strategy bought 10,645 BTC.
Price didn’t even flinch, it’s actually down ~6%.

How?