gutz of berserk

THIS IS VERY, VERY BAD!!
I spent days looking at where the global financial system is heading…
And next year will be rough.
97% of people will lose EVERYTHING in 2026.
Not because of a classic recession or a bank run.
It’s something much bigger than that, let me explain:
In sovereign bond markets, especially U.S. Treasuries.
Bond volatility is already starting to wake up.
The MOVE index has been creeping higher, and historically that doesn’t happen without a reason.
Bonds don’t move on vibes or narratives but they move when funding conditions are starting to tighten.
What makes this worrying is that three major fault lines are lining up at the same time:
First, the U.S. Treasury.
In 2026, the U.S. has to roll and issue an enormous amount of debt while running massive deficits.
At the same time, interest costs are exploding, foreign buyers are stepping back, dealers are more balance-sheet constrained than ever, and long-end auctions are already showing signs of stress.
Bigger tails, weaker demand, less appetite to absorb supply.
That’s not a theory, it’s already visible in the data.
This is how funding shocks start.
Not with panic, but with auctions that quietly struggle.
Second, we have Japan.
Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries and the backbone of global carry trades.
If USD/JPY keeps pushing higher and the Bank of Japan is forced to react, carry trades unwind fast.
When that happens, Japanese institutions don’t just sell domestic assets…
They sell foreign bonds too.
That loop puts even more pressure on U.S. yields right when the Treasury needs demand the most.
Japan doesn’t cause the shock by itself. It amplifies it.
Third, we have China.
Behind the scenes is a massive local-government debt problem that hasn’t gone away.
If stress there turns into a visible credit event, the yuan weakens, capital looks for safety, commodities react, and the dollar strengthens.
That feeds directly back into higher U.S. yields again. China becomes another amplifier, not the origin.
The trigger for all of this doesn’t need to be dramatic.
It could be something as simple as a poorly received 10-year or 30-year Treasury auction.
One bad auction at the wrong time is enough to spike yields, tighten global funding, and force risk assets to reprice quickly.
We’ve seen this movie before, the UK gilt crisis in 2022 followed this exact path.
The difference now is scale. This time, it’s global.
If that kind of funding shock hits, the sequence is fairly predictable: long-term yields jump, the dollar strengthens, liquidity dries up, risk assets sell off hard, and volatility spreads everywhere.
That’s not a solvency crisis, it’s a plumbing problem. But plumbing problems move fast.
And then comes the response.
Central banks step in. Liquidity gets injected.
Swap lines open. Buybacks and balance sheet tools come back into play.
The system stabilizes but at the cost of another wave of liquidity.
That’s when the second phase starts.
Real yields fall, hard assets catch a bid, gold breaks higher, silver follows, Bitcoin recovers, commodities move, and the dollar eventually rolls over.
The shock clears the way for the next inflationary cycle.
That’s why 2026 matters…
Not because everything explodes permanently, but because multiple stress cycles peak at the same time.
And the early signal is already there.
Bond volatility doesn’t rise early by accident.
The world can handle recessions… but what it struggles with is a disorderly Treasury market.
That’s the risk building beneath the surface and it’s worth paying attention to long before it shows up.
I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. Pay close attention.
Alot of people will wish they followed me sooner.