Hamidkakar

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been repeating almost the exact same pattern during every Bear Cycle and its subsequent bottom.

Once the Bull Cycle tops, the market enters a correction under Lower Highs, which is technically the new Bear Cycle. A break below the Support of the Descending Triangle typically initiates Phase 2, which is where BTC is currently at.

On the 2014 and 2018 Bear Cycles, the bottom came on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). On the more recent one (2022) it was formed within the 1M MA50 - 1W MA350 (red trend-line) Zone. This is where we expect BTC to form its new bottom (minimum), within $50000 - 45000.

Notice also that the Triangle's Support has historically been either on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Cycle Low or on the 0.5 Fib (blue) from the upcoming bottom. If this is again on the 1W MA350, then this time the 0.236 and 0.5 Fibs overlap, which largely confirms this Triangle thesis.

So do you also expect one more drop or you believe the Cycle has already bottomed? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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Bitcoin is breaking out of the descending channel! But this breakout is most likely going to be a bull trap (false breakout). Why? Trading Bitcoin is not easy, and whales want you to buy it right now so they can force you to sell later in Q4 2026. In the short term, Bitcoin can hit 79k - 80k in the following weeks, but it's the best opportunity to sell/short.

Bear market progress: 61 / 100 (61%). I think Bitcoin could find its bottom in September/October 2026.

Why is this short-term uptrend a trap? From an Elliott Wave perspective, a corrective major wave usually has an ABC pattern (3-wave structure). Because Bitcoin broke out of the descending channel, we can celebrate that wave A has been formed. That means we are in wave B, and soon Bitcoin will finish this wave and start a last wave C. Wave C is usually characterized by huge capitulation of major investors and retail traders, we should see news that some of the major players got liquidated / hacked. We had this news in the previous bear market about the collapse of the FTX exchange. Currently we don't have such news. People are pretty optimistic, but I am not at this point - I am very cautious.

My main focus is on 44k because this level is a very strong support from a technical point of view. Specifically, it's the point of control in the volume profile of the previous price action on the weekly chart. On the chart you can see my prediction of how the bear market and wave C may look.

It's too early compared to the previous Bitcoin cycles to say that this was the ultimate bottom. I see it as a trap from whales and banks. Banks love Bitcoin and crypto.

Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! I am very transparent with my trades. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
16 hours ago
Trade active
I am currently long in the short term. As you can see on the chart. Soon taking profit for a quick trade.

Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current $XAU USD setup.

Market Analysis

Gold previously traded inside an upward channel, forming higher highs and confirming bullish momentum. After reaching the top, price lost strength and entered a range. Following this, gold broke below the range and formed a bearish structure with lower highs.

Currently, price is approaching the 4,860 resistance zone, which aligns with a triangle resistance line, while holding above the 4,700 support zone. This creates a compression structure, indicating a potential breakout move soon.

My Scenario & Strategy

As long as XAUUSD remains below the 4,860 resistance, the bearish bias becomes valid. A rejection from this zone could push price toward the 4,700 support (TP1) as the next downside target. If bearish momentum increases, a break below 4,700 could lead to a deeper decline toward lower levels.

However, if price breaks and holds above 4,860, the bearish scenario would be invalidated and bullish continuation could follow.

That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
2 hours ago
Trade active
We see that the price of gold continues to decline and is currently approaching the ascending support line, where buyers may intervene. So we will monitor the market!

$XAUT

Hey everyone. While everyone's panicking over geopolitical swings and wondering whether Brent will hit $150 or crash to $60, I see a completely different picture. The oil market right now reminds me of water at 80°C — everyone's waiting for it to boil at 100°C, but nobody understands the process is already underway.

Most traders are now playing on emotions from every news story out of the Persian Gulf. Strait of Hormuz blockade, US-Iran negotiations, threats of refinery bombings — and everyone rushes to buy or sell. This is a classic mistake. News isn't the cause of movement. It's just a convenient explanation they feed you after the move has already happened.

Geopolitical Theater and Real Drivers
Yes, Brent is holding around $100 after all this drama with Hormuz. Yes, the risk premium of $10-20 per barrel is real. But let's look deeper.

Iran exports 1.5 million barrels per day to China. That's a serious volume, but not critical for the global balance. Venezuela, Russia — we've been through all these stories before. The market adapts through shadow fleets, flow reorientation, discounts.

More important factor — the structural surplus of 2026. Production growth from non-OPEC+ countries exceeds demand growth from China and India. This is basic math that everyone ignores in the frenzy of geopolitical paranoia.

As for the Russian market — the impact there is negative. MOEX is trading sideways, the oil alpha is gone due to tax changes and inflationary pressure. Oil companies aren't showing the previous correlation with commodity prices.

My Base Case: $85-120 Consolidation
This is where the majority gets it completely wrong. Everyone's looking for directional movement — either a moon shot to $150 or a crash to $60. But I see extended consolidation in the $85-120 range followed by an upward breakout.

Why exactly this range? Too many triggers for volatility in both directions:

- Uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz blockade

- Potential strikes on refineries in Iran, Qatar, UAE

- Trump negotiations (every de-escalation signal knocks off $5-10)

- OPEC+ quota corrections after Q2 results

- Logistical problems with Russia's shadow fleet

Each of these factors can move the market 10-15% in either direction. But combined they create volatility equilibrium, not trending movement.

Crowd Psychology: Classic Mistakes
Right now speculators are building long oil positions during geopolitical flare-ups. This is a typical momentum-trading mistake. Buying on fear, selling on relief.

Institutions are playing contrarian. Banks analysts are already talking about fading the geopolitical effect. Finam writes: "Expensive oil no longer supports equities". They understand that structural factors matter more than news spikes.

Scenarios with Specific Triggers
Base case (65% probability): Consolidation $85-120 through end of 2026. Trigger for upper boundary — escalation in Persian Gulf. Trigger for lower — US-Iran deal or non-OPEC supply surplus.

Bearish scenario (20% probability): Downward break to $75-80 with full de-escalation and return to structural surplus. Trigger — successful Trump negotiations and removal of all Iran sanctions.

Bullish scenario (15% probability): Move to $130-150 with full Hormuz blockade or strikes on critical infrastructure. But this is more of a short-term spike than sustainable trend.

My Positions and Tactics
I'm trading the range. Buying lower boundaries of my box, selling upper ones. Every box on the chart is a potential entry point. Now waiting for acceptable levels around $88-92 for buys.

Not chasing every geopolitical spike. Patiently building positions in value zones. The oil market isn't crypto — different laws apply here. Fundamental cycles, long-term contracts, infrastructure constraints.

My horizon is 6-12 months. Waiting for consolidation to complete with an upward breakout against the backdrop of excess inventory depletion and global demand growth in 2027.

Why the Breakout Will Be Up
Long-term picture remains bullish. Underinvestment in new fields from 2020-2023 is showing. ESG restrictions on oil project financing haven't gone anywhere.

Geopolitical premium will become a structural price element. The world is becoming multipolar, conflicts are the norm. $10-15 geopolitical premium is baked into prices for the long haul.

India and Southeast Asian countries are ramping up consumption. China could again become a demand driver with economic stimulus.

Conclusion
While the crowd trades news and emotions, I'm building positions at technical levels in the key range. Oil is a long-term game where patience wins, not reacting to every tweet from the White House.

The coming months will show who's right — the panic crowd or those who can read market structure. I'm betting on consolidation followed by growth.$BTC $ETH

Technical Analysis: Current Situation
Parabolic Move: The price has taken a sharp vertical move over the last 5-6 days. Whenever such parabolic growth occurs, the chances of a "Healthy Correction" or "Pullback" increase.Moving Averages (MA): The price has moved significantly away from the MA 7 (8.75) and MA 25 (2.67). According to technical rules, price usually returns to touch its MAs (Mean Reversion).Price Action: The previous candle was red, showing selling pressure, but the current green candle is attempting a recovery. However, the long upper "Wick" indicates that sellers are active at higher levels.
Trading Opinion & Strategy
Buying at the top right now due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) could be very risky. The better strategy is to wait for a "Dip."
Scenario 1: Retest/Buy on Dip (Recommended)
If the price takes a slight correction, the entry will be much safer.
Entry Range: $12.50 - $13.80 (Based on Fibonacci levels and previous support).Take Profit 1 (TP1): $17.40 (Recent High)Take Profit 2 (TP2): $20.00 (Psychological Resistance)Stop Loss (SL): $10.50 (Below the last swing low)
Scenario 2: Breakout Entry
If the price breaks its recent high ($17.41$) and closes a candle above it.
Entry: Above $17.50$ (on a candle close).TP: $21.50 - $24.00SL: $14.80$
Important Advice (Risk Management)
Volatility: $RAVE is currently very volatile; therefore, only put 2-3% of your total capital at risk.Leverage: If you are trading Futures, do not use more than 3x - 5x leverage, as a quick "wick-down" could liquidate your position.Profit Booking: After every major move, keep shifting your stop loss to your "Entry Price" (Trailing SL) to keep your profits safe.

Summary: The market trend is "Up," but taking an entry on a "Retest" would be the smarter move. Avoid buying at the top in a hurry.

Ether (ETH) is currently displaying a technical pattern that follows a 2025 fractal, in which Ether gained 250%. The weekly timeframe chart shows Ether retesting an ascending trend line that has supported the price since 2022.
A bullish cross from the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator also confirmed the price bottom. 

Ether’s current price action is following a similar pattern, with the price again bouncing off the same structural support and a confirmed bullish MACD crossover. 
“Similar structure. Similar dump. Similar consolidation,” analyst Max Crypto said in an X post on Tuesday, adding:
“What if $ETH repeats the Q2/Q3 2025 rally?”
If history repeats itself, ETH may rally by more than 250% toward $6,300. Further confirmation of a trend reversal now hinges on Ether “crossing the key $2,400 range,” fellow analyst Cryptorand said, adding:
“If it manages to consolidate over, it will trigger the bullish reversal.”

Ether’s apparent demand hits a 90-day high
Ether’s apparent demand turned positive after rising to its highest level since Dec. 31, 2025, as hopes for a deal between the US and Iran boosted investor sentiment.
Capriole Investment’s Ethereum Apparent Demand metric reveals that the demand for Ether has been positive since April 8, rising to a high of 24,111 ETH on April 14. 

The surge in Ether’s apparent demand could be attributed to rising US demand, as measured by the Coinbase premium index.
The ETH Coinbase premium index measures the price difference between the ETHUSD pair on Coinbase and Binance’s $ETH
USD equivalent.
The chart below shows that the index has flipped positive, rising to 0.055, its highest level since October 2025. 
“The index’s rise to 0.055 reflected a significant influx of institutional liquidity, ” CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake analysis on Tuesday, adding:
“It typically signals increased demand from institutional investors, particularly in the US market.”

Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling $160 million. 

Global Ether exchange-traded products (ETPs) also recorded $196.5 million of inflows last week, reinforcing increased demand for ETH among institutional investors.

Shares of Hive Digital (HIVE) and Bitfarms (BITF) jumped more than 10% on Tuesday morning, leading a rally across bitcoin miners pivoting to AI and HPC data center infrastructure.
At the same time, Bitcoin climbed above $76,100 to a two-month high, while U.S. equities recovered most of their losses tied to the conflict in Iran.
The move builds on a trend across the mining sector, where companies are repositioning and repurposing their power-heavy infrastructure to serve artificial intelligence workloads as demand for compute power and electricity surges.
"They’ve been aggressively diversifying their bitcoin capacity to serve the AI market, and they still trade at a huge discount to other data center peers on a market cap-to-megawatt basis," VanEck’s Matthew Sigel said in a CNBC interview last month.
"These miners were early to identify they were sitting on a gold mine in terms of the cost of capital they can earn by pivoting," he added.
AI infrastructure shuffle
HIVE has been steadily building out its AI and data center capacity, launching a GPU cluster in Paraguay through its BUZZ high-performance computing unit last month.
HIVE is leveraging its existing hydro-powered infrastructure in Paraguay, where it operates roughly 300 megawatts of capacity, as a base for potential AI expansion through 2027.
The company has also begun phasing down parts of its legacy bitcoin mining business, including scaling back ASIC machine operations in Sweden and redirecting capital toward GPU-powered data center capacity in Canada.
Shares of HIVE are trading at $2.42 according to The Block price data, a gain of nearly 12% on the day.

Meanwhile, Bitfarms is taking a wholesale approach to its transition.
The company, which recently rebranded to Keel Infrastructure (NASDAQ: KEEL), is adopting a landlord-style model by leasing power-secured data center capacity to hyperscalers and large compute customers.
Management has outlined a 2.2 gigawatt development pipeline across the U.S. and Canada, with initial AI-related revenue expected as early as 2027.
Shares of Keel Infrastructure are trading at $2.35 for a more than 10% gain on the day, its highest price since January.

Other peers, including those still pursuing bitcoin mining, also moved higher to a lesser degree. Shares of Canaan, Bitdeer, and IREN rose between roughly 7% and 10% on the day.
Tuesday's move also coincided with a massive rebound in traditional markets, with the S&P 500 regaining nearly all its losses since the U.S.-Iran conflict. It is currently just fractions of a percent off its all-time high set in January.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

$BTC

Solana is entering a critical phase as price action tightens within a defined range, signaling that a major move could be on the horizon. With the broader correction nearing completion and key levels coming into focus, market structure suggests that a breakout may be brewing as momentum begins to shift.
$49 Emerges As Critical Support—Can Bulls Defend The Structure?
According to crypto analyst Ali Charts, the broader market noise often obscures the underlying technical reality of Solana. By zooming out to a higher timeframe, the governing structure of the asset becomes remarkably clear. Currently, Solana is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, a formation that has been dictating its long-term trajectory and providing a roadmap for its price action.
At the top of the current range, $108 has emerged as the immediate macro resistance level. This price point represents a significant hurdle for the bulls, as evidenced by recent market behavior. Ali Charts notes that Solana has struggled to break and maintain any meaningful momentum above this threshold, making it the primary barrier to further upside.
While macro resistance looms overhead, the analyst identifies $49 as the current main support level for SOL. Interestingly, this $49 mark aligns perfectly with the mid-range of the established ascending channel. This positioning suggests that as long as the price remains above this level, the asset is maintaining a healthy position within its long-term bullish structure.
The interplay between the $49 support and the $108 resistance defines the current battlefield for Solana. By focusing on these specific structural levels rather than short-term fluctuations, traders can better understand the asset’s health. 
Bearish Doubts Fade As Solana Nears End Of ABC Correction
In a recent update, crypto analyst XForceGlobal revealed that despite earlier pushback from Solana holders against a bearish outlook, price action is now beginning to validate that perspective. The asset is nearing the completion of its macro ABC corrective structure, suggesting that the prolonged pullback phase may be coming to an end.
Such a development is increasingly viewed as a positive signal, particularly as it aligns with the broader crypto market structure, where multiple assets are showing signs of a bullish continuation. The synchronization across higher timeframes adds weight to the idea that Solana could soon transition out of its corrective phase and into a more constructive trend.
Based on the current structure, Solana’s correction is either already complete or in its final stretch, with the possibility of one last low before a reversal takes shape. If that final leg plays out, it could act as a liquidity sweep before momentum shifts, setting the stage for a stronger and more sustained upside move.

$SOL

Bitcoin is trading at $75,470.92 on Binance, up 5.39% in the last 24 hours, with an intraday high of $75,477 – marking the first time BTC has traded above $75,000 since February 2.

Key Takeaways:
Structural breakout or bull trap? Analysts say a sustained close above $75,000 would confirm a breakout from consolidation and likely attract fresh capital. Failure to hold could trigger a bull trap, though strong support sits at $65,000.$79,000 is the real level to watch – Nexo's Dessislava Ianeva notes that while $75,000 is psychologically important, the 100-day moving average near $79,000 carries more structural weight.Path to mid-$80,000s – Bybit's Han Tan says if the breakout holds and geopolitical tensions ease with continued ETF inflows, Bitcoin could climb toward $85,000.ETF inflows stabilize – U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.32 billion in net inflows in March, ending a four-month outflow streak, which analysts view as a structural tailwind.
What happens next?
Mati Greenspan (Quantum Economics): "The key question isn't whether we briefly trade above $75,000, but whether we can hold it."
#BTC #ETF $BTC $ETH $BNB