KaiZXBT

On Thursday, 18 April, Bitcoin [BTC] bounced to $89.5k before sinking to post a new low of $84.5k. This volatility saw Litecoin’s price [LTC] drop 7.5% in 5 hours, with the altcoin posting a new lower low at $72.64. At the time of writing, it was trading at $75.89.
Litecoin bulls gave up control of a key long-term support zone at $80-$84 over the past two weeks of trading. In fact, a recent AMBCrypto report highlighted the importance of this region as a long-term support.
The same report also pointed out that the bulls had little fighting strength and were barely holding on. LTC’s inclusion in Bitwise’s 10 Crypto Index ETF [BITW] gave it no sizeable boost on the price charts either.
Assessing the strength of the next downward Litecoin trend

Source: LTC/USDT on TradingView
Using the Fixed Range Volume Profile tool for 2025, the Value Area High and Value Area Low were determined to be at $120 and $83. After the first week of October, when LTC had been trading above the year’s VAH, the 10/10 crash occurred.
The OBV showed that the buyer-seller equilibrium back then shifted to an almost total seller domination. Litecoin saw volatility in November and appeared to defend the $80-support zone. However, it was too little to stop the downtrend.
With the loss of the $80-level, $73.4, $66.5, and $59.6 were the next long-term supports that Litecoin bears would target.

Source: CoinGlass
The 1-month lookback period liquidation heatmap showed that the liquidity around $73 was swept. A bounce was in progress. It may be possible that this bounce would reach the magnetic zone at $82-$83.
The less likely scenario ahead for Litecoin
This would be the bullish path. The magnetic zone at $88 is filled with short liquidations and could pull prices towards it. A market-wide sentiment shift and a cascade of short liquidations could see an LTC breakout past $90, reclaiming a bullish trend.
Traders’ call to action – Remain bearish!
The altcoin has just recently lost a significant support level. Its trend and price structure were bearish, and there was no appreciable buying pressure on the higher timeframes.
The $80-$84 area, if retested, would be too strong to overcome. Traders can look to short the bounce, targeting the support levels at $66 and $59.

$LTC

According to a detailed Bitwise thread, Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a new market phase. The firm noted that Bitcoin no longer behaves like a leverage‑driven asset.
Bitwise explained that institutional access and regulatory oversight have replaced the hype surrounding halving and speculative excess. This shift, they argued, has helped reduce the extreme boom‑and‑bust cycles that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior.
Why Bitcoin stayed calmer than Nvidia
Bitwise reported that Bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia throughout 2025. The firm highlighted how Bitcoin’s rolling volatility has steadily declined over the past decade.
They described this trend as structural derisking across the crypto market. According to Bitwise, the shift is directly linked to the rise of ETFs, which have broadened Bitcoin’s investor base and helped smooth out volatility.
Currently, these exchange‑traded funds act as the new whales, steering Bitcoin and wider crypto flows. When ETFs withdraw liquidity, markets interpret it as “risk off.” Conversely, when they buy aggressively, sentiment flips to “risk on.”
ETFs, institutions, and expanding market exposure
Bitwise predicted that, in 2026, ETFs will purchase more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum [ETH], and Solana [SOL]. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have bought 710,777 BTC, while the network has produced 363,047 BTC.

Source: SosoValue
The firm predicted that crypto equities will decisively outperform tech stocks in the current market cycle. It highlighted its Crypto Innovators 30 Index, which surged 585%, far surpassing tech’s 140% gain.
Bitwise extended the outlook to prediction markets, stablecoins, and tokenization. It predicted Polymarket open interest would reach new highs and warned stablecoins could be blamed for destabilizing an emerging market currency as supply neared $300B.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action
At press time, Bitcoin traded near $88k, holding visible support after the broader pullback. Price reactions appeared more controlled than prior cycle corrections.

Source: TradingView
MACD fell to extreme bearish levels during the drop toward $80,000.
Momentum has dropped below the previous lows from August 2024 and April 2025, reflecting patterns of earlier exhaustion phases.

$BTC

If history is any guide, the crypto market may be staring at a major bearish catalyst. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has officially hiked interest rates by 75 bps, making it its largest increase in over 30 years.
As AMBCrypto noted, BOJ rate hikes have historically led to double-digit drawdowns in Bitcoin [BTC], as rising leverage costs push foreign investors to de-risk and unwind BTC positions, fueling short-term FUD.
So far, this cycle is playing out similarly. An analyst flagged a major BTC dump ahead of the BOJ meeting. Notably, the selling came from large players, totaling 24k BTC. That’s over $2 billion in selling pressure.

Source: X
The on-chain data reflects it too.
Notably, Bitcoin’s key metrics are still in the red, showing real-time losses being realized. In particular, STHs with a cost basis near $101k are now roughly 16% underwater, reinforcing ongoing capitulation pressure.
Against this setup, the recent BOJ rate hike stacks a major macro headwind. 
In this context, both historical patterns and on-chain signals suggest that investors are actively reshuffling, anticipating a potential repeat flush. Naturally, the question arises: Is Bitcoin’s break below $80k imminent?
Bitcoin liquidation frenzy flips into structural support
Q4 is shaping up as a cycle defined by mass crypto manipulation.
On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin has been extremely volatile, largely due to whale-driven liquidations. For instance, on the 30-minute chart on the 18th of December, BTC fell by $3k, wiping out about $140 million in longs.
The same trend shows up on the macro level. Long liquidations are running 2–3x higher than shorts, trapping BTC in a loop around $90k. In short, whales are “deliberately” preventing the market from running too hot.

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
This shows up clearly in the data. 
At press time, Bitcoin’s Open Interest (OI) is still about 30% below the highly leveraged levels seen before the October crash, indicating that traders are staying cautious rather than chasing risky, short-term gains.
With that in mind, a similar breakdown (despite BOJ-related FUD) looks less likely. Once the fear fades and investors rebalance, the $85k level could instead act as a strong base for Bitcoin’s next move.

$BTC

In Q4 2025, Bitcoin dropped by 30% after falling below $90k. This was typical of a pullback during bull runs, but the correction also cracked a key support, prompting some renowned analysts to turn bearish in the mid-term. 
This raises the question – At what level will the bear market condition be applicable, and are we currently in one? 
For pseudonymous analyst Jackis, even a further drop to $70k won’t mark a “typical bear market” but a “macro range for 2025.” For him, the current weakness is a “temporary pause on macro trend.”  He added, 
“But unlike 2022 or Q1 of this year, this drop isn’t driven fundamentally or by a broader risk leg but rather exchange of hands between OGs and institutions.”
BTC struggles below key support
However, on the price charts, the current Bitcoin price action is more than just a monthly range. Historically, the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA, blue line) has served as the primary support for bull markets. 
A sustained stay below the 50W EMA marked the past bear market conditions.
The extended correction below $100k in mid-November pushed price action below this key bull market support. Unless reclaimed, the bullish uptrend could be at risk. 

Source: BTC/USD, TradingView 
So, a drop to $60k-$70k would mark a potential bottoming or reversal from a “bear market” based on the 50W EMA. 
The zone would be the previous breakout level that eased BTC’s deeper corrections per historical data. Even ex-Ark Invest’s lead, Chris Burniske, echoed this outlook. 
BTC losses near bear market regimes
From an on-chain data perspective, press time levels seemed to be near full bear market capitulation conditions. The aSOPR metric, which tracks if coins are being sold at a profit or loss and sentiment, was close to slipping below 1. 
Previous dips below 1 reinforced bear market capitulations and also marked market reversals. 

Source: Glassnode
The same outlook was reinforced by the Total Supply in Loss. About 7 million BTC supply is in loss now – The highest during this cycle. It was close to the 8-10 million BTC supply at loss that marked previous bearish regimes, noted Glassnode. 
“This pattern closely mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where mounting investor frustration preceded a shift toward more pronounced bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower prices.”

Source: Glassnode
Overall, the current $88k level and 30% dip have put the market under extreme stress. A further price drop to $60k-$70k could trigger losses that mirror past bearish regimes. 

$BTC
#USNonFarmPayrollReport

MYX Finance has stayed in the hot seat over the past day, with sellers dominating market activity as the altcoin plunged 11% during this period.
Sentiment across on-chain and derivatives data stayed weak. That weakness suggested downside risk may persist if demand failed to recover.
Liquidity outflows intensify
On-chain liquidity has declined sharply, with bearish sentiment strengthening as investors continue to exit the protocol.
Total Value Locked (TVL), a key metric that measures a protocol’s health based on investor deposits, points to a fragile outlook.
According to DeFiLlama data, MYX Finance’s [MYX] TVL fell by roughly $1.16 million over eight days. It dropped to about $22.64 million.

Source: DeFiLlama
AMBCrypto traced the primary driver of this outflow to a sharp decline in the protocol’s earnings in December.
The protocol, which recorded peak earnings of $16,685 in October, has seen revenue collapse to just $105 as of press time. This represented an unprecedented 99.37% decline.
Lower earnings suggested reduced protocol usage, since revenue depended on transaction activity. At the same time, unlocks and withdrawals added selling pressure.
That combination pointed to weakening demand across the ecosystem.
Perpetual traders turn bearish
Perpetual traders have increasingly tilted toward the bearish side of the market.
The Open Interest-Weighted Funding Rate turned negative, signaling short-side dominance. At press time, it printed around -0.0140%.

Source: CoinGlass
This shift has coincided with a notable 14% decline in Open Interest, which fell to $21.27 million, reflecting a $3.06 million outflow from the Derivatives market.
On top of that, taker-driven Spot Volume declined sharply. Volume fell to $44.74 million from $171.96 million earlier.
Falling price alongside shrinking volume typically confirm bearish conditions. Even so, selling momentum appeared to be slowing.
Possible price movement
Chart analysis showed that MYX has moved into a short-term bullish price structure.
MYX traded near the lower boundary of an ascending channel, suggesting a temporary bullish structure. That positioning could allow a short-lived bounce.

Source: TradingView
However, the broader structure remained fragile when viewed in historical context.
That setup left traders focused on two key downside levels. The first sat near the recent higher low around $0.34. Below that, the channel’s origin near $0.23 marked the next critical support.
A failure to hold either level could reinforce MYX’s broader downtrend.

$MYX