I came across some useful information and want to share it with you.
Many people are curious about when Bitcoin's lowest points will occur, and there are all kinds of guesses. I personally think the lowest price might be around $40,000. If you look at the image, there is an analysis suggesting that $45,000 could be the bottom point.
If unexpected events like a black swan occur, there is a possibility it could drop to $30,000.
In any case, the right strategy in the current situation is to invest little by little rather than buying all at once. Because no one can know the exact lowest point with 100% certainty.
If you look at the picture, the Bitcoin decline period lasted an average of 12 months, or one year, and we can see that the drop percentage has been decreasing year by year. Currently, we are 3 months away from reaching the 1-year mark, and I believe the price will drop a bit more during this time. Hopefully, this time the crash will stop at -70%. What are your thoughts?
The main factor in the crypto market: human psychology and emotions control prices. The "Hodlers' Cheat Sheet" shows the psychological stages of people during Bitcoin's 4-year cycles:
1️⃣Hope and Optimism: Prices rise, and the belief "things will get better" emerges. 2️⃣Confidence and Excitement: Growth accelerates, everyone advises each other. 3️⃣Euphoria: Prices peak, everyone feels like a professional. The most dangerous point! 🚨 4️⃣ Denial and Panic: When prices fall, investors deny it, then panic sell at a loss. 5️⃣Depression: The market bottoms out, hope fades. The best buying point! 💰
We are currently at stage 4, which means there is still a little way to go before depression. Conclusion: Smart investors (Hodlers) sell when the market is in euphoria and buy during depression. History repeats every 4 years.
A certain trader invested $3,500 in ANSEM token 11 days ago. But fearing the price was dropping, he decided to sell his tokens on June 27 with a $1,000 loss.
The most heartbreaking part — if he had just held on for 3 more days, his $3,500 investment would have been worth $1.6 million.
This event once again reminds us that the biggest gains in the crypto market often come after the greatest tests of patience.
Amid concerns surrounding the MSUSD stablecoin, the token has started to deviate from its $1 value.
This was caused by the auditing company responsible for verifying the stablecoin's reserves refusing to continue working with the project. As a result, panic intensified in the market and investors began selling the asset.
An investor bought 800 Bitcoins 7 months ago. He purchased each BTC at an average price of $106,866.
Since the Bitcoin price did not rise as expected, the investor sold all his assets today for $50.2 million, resulting in a loss of $35.3 million.
Simply put, the major investor who bought Bitcoin near its highest prices waited 7 months but ultimately closed his position with a significant loss. #BTC #whale Follow me!!
Satoshi Nakamoto, considered the creator of Bitcoin, is regarded as the richest crypto owner in the world. His wealth consists of Bitcoins mined in 2009–2010. These BTCs are stored in approximately 22,000 addresses and have hardly been moved since.
🥈 2. Justin Sun — $2.7 billion
Justin Sun is the founder of the TRON project, head of BitTorrent, and one of the most active entrepreneurs in the crypto industry. He is associated with several crypto exchanges and blockchain projects.
🥉 3. James Howells — $500 million
Welsh IT specialist James Howells mined about 8,000 BTC on his personal laptop in 2010. However, the hard drive containing these Bitcoins was later lost. At today's value, these assets are worth hundreds of millions of dollars. 4. Stefan Thomas — $440 million
Stefan Thomas is a developer and one of the early promoters of Bitcoin. In 2011, he was paid 7,002 BTC for creating an animated video explaining how Bitcoin works. However, he is also known for losing access to his Bitcoins.
5. Rain Loxmus — $425 million
Estonian banker Rain Loxmus participated in Ethereum's 2014 ICO. He invested about $75,000 and received 250,000 ETH. Today, these assets are valued at hundreds of millions of dollars.
6. Vitalik Buterin — $384 million
Vitalik Buterin is one of the founders of Ethereum and one of the most influential figures in the crypto industry. He held a share of ETH at the time Ethereum was created and remains one of the major on-chain wealth holders.
7. Clifton Collins — $316 million
Irishman Clifton Collins bought about 6,000 BTC in 2011–2012 when Bitcoin was priced around $5. Later, he became known to the public due to legal cases related to his crypto wealth.
There are still no clear signs of full capitulation in the Bitcoin market
According to analysts, the losses experienced by various groups of investors remain significantly lower compared to the periods when the bottom points of previous bear markets were formed.
Historically, the true bottom points of the Bitcoin market have usually formed after widespread panic, significant losses, and extensive capitulation among investors.
So far, such a painful phase has not fully manifested. For this reason, some experts emphasize that there is still a risk of further decline ahead in the market.
According to recent data, currently 10.5 million $BTC , that is over 50 percent of circulating Bitcoins, are held at a loss. A month ago, this figure was about 30 percent.
Analysts note that the final bottom points of major bear markets in 2011, 2018, and 2022 corresponded to similar periods.
However, historical data shows that in previous cycles, before the market reached the final bottom, the Bitcoin price experienced an additional decline of 15–26 percent.
Major investor sent 43,235 ETH to Binance exchange
According to market observers, a major investor transferred 43,235 ETH to the Binance exchange. The transaction value is approximately 74.68 million dollars.
It is noted that this wallet is currently at a loss of nearly 11 million dollars.
The deposit of a large amount of $ETH to the exchange is usually considered a signal that increases the likelihood of selling. Therefore, this action may put additional pressure on the price of Ethereum.
🪙According to JPMorgan calculations, the current average cost of mining Bitcoin is around $78,000, while the $BTC market price is approximately $63,000.
This means that some miners are operating at a loss. According to analyses, currently one in every five miners is mining Bitcoin at a loss.
To cover expenses, mass mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026. This figure is even higher than the total volume of Bitcoin sold throughout 2025.
Sell pressure in the altcoin market has reached the highest level in the last 5 years
According to data, the volume of sales in the spot market has consistently exceeded purchases over the past 15 months. This indicates that investors' interest in altcoins remains weak.
Although the situation seemed to stabilize briefly at the beginning of 2025, the indicator has started to decline again. As a result, sellers continue to dominate the market.