KashCryptoWave

🇨🇳 Putin to visit China May 19-20 – just days after Trump left Beijing.
Timing is not accidental.
China reinforces its "no-limits" partnership with Russia while balancing US engagement.
25th anniversary of the friendship treaty. Energy and trade on the agenda.
👇 Two superpower visits in one week. Who wins?
#Russia #China #Putin #Geopolitics

Bitcoin lost 80K. Stocks crashed. Bond yields hit a 19-year high. Altcoins are bleeding. The weekend won't save you.
Bitcoin dropped to $79,254 on Friday, breaching the critical 80K level that had held for over a week. Current price: ~$79,250, down 2.7% in 24 hours and 1.1% weekly. The drop accelerated during the US stock market open – a macro-driven sell-off, not crypto-specific.
Altcoins are getting crushed even harder. XRP -5.06%, Solana -3.97%, Ethereum -3.43% to $2,221, Dogecoin -3.29%. Analyst Ran Neuner warns a deeper slide toward $75K for Bitcoin would have "even more devastating consequences for altcoins."
The technical breakdown is confirmed. Bitcoin attempted another breakout from its bull flag formation. It failed. Price is now trading below all short-term moving averages. MACD shows a bearish structure. The $80,200-$80,500 zone has flipped from support to resistance.
Three external shocks are driving the sell-off. First, US stocks crashed on Friday – Dow -1.07%, S&P -1.24%, Nasdaq -1.54%. Tech stocks got hammered: Micron -6.6%, Intel -6.2%, Nvidia -4.4%, Tesla -4.8%.
Second, bond yields skyrocketed. The 10-year Treasury hit 4.595% – highest since February 2025. The 30-year Treasury hit 5.127% – highest since July 2007, 19 years. Markets are pricing persistent inflation and no rate cuts. A rate hike is now "more prominent."
Third, oil spiked on Iran tensions. Trump's tough stance on the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil higher, adding to inflation fears. South Korea's KOSPI plunged over 6% on the global risk-off move.
Rate cut odds have collapsed. The market is now pricing a potential rate hike later in 2026. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had previously indicated plans to end quantitative easing. No rate cuts are expected based on current data.
Political risk is mounting. With midterm elections approaching and Trump "widely expected to lose" according to some analysts, the market is factoring in the loss of a pro-crypto stance in the White House. This could be a "major trigger" for a broad crypto decline.
Over the weekend, liquidity thins out. Bitcoin is expected to trade in a narrow range between $78,500 and $79,800. Ethereum between $2,200 and $2,270. Expect lower volatility and range-bound trading. True direction will be decided next week.
Key levels: BTC support $78,500, resistance $79,800. ETH support $2,200, resistance $2,270. Break below $75,500 could trigger a move toward $50,000.
The bullish catalyst to watch: Strait of Hormuz reopening or OPEC divisions. If those happen, risk markets could recover. Until then, downside is the path of least resistance.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#MarketUpdate #Bitcoin #CrashAlert

Three cycles. Six years. One pattern that keeps working.
The pattern is clear: When >95% of supply is in profit → market top. When <50% → bear market bottom. Right now, we're in the reset phase.
Full Data Table (2020–2026)
Date BTC Price (USD) Realized Price (USD) Unrealized Profit Margin (%) Supply in Profit (%) Market Phase
2020-03 $6,500 $5,800 +12% ~45% Bear bottom
2020-12 $28,989 $7,500 +286% 95% Bull start
2021-04 $64,000 $17,000 +276% 97% Euphoria
2021-11 $68,964 $24,000 +187% ~95% Cycle top
2022-06 $20,000 $22,000 -9% ~40% Capitulation
2022-11 $16,300 $23,000 -29% ~25% Bear bottom
2023-12 $40,000 $25,000 +60% ~70% Recovery
2024-12 $107,796 $35,000 +208% 96% Bull peak
2025-10 $126,198 $45,000 +180% ~94% All-time high
2026-03 $70,000 $52,000 +34% ~65% Correction
Visual Timeline
2020-03 2021-11 2022-11 2024-12 2025-10 2026-03
● ● ● ● ● ●
│ │ │ │ │ │
$6,500 $68,964 $16,300 $107,796 $126,198 $70,000
Realized Realized Realized Realized Realized Realized
$5,800 $24,000 $23,000 $35,000 $45,000 $52,000
Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin Margin
+12% +187% -29% +208% +180% +34%
Bear Cycle Capit- Bull All-Time Correction
Bottom Top ulation Peak High Phase
The Pattern
Signal Bull Market Tops Bear Market Bottoms
Unrealized Profit Margin 180% (2021, 2024, 2025) Negative (2022) or <60%
Supply in Profit 95% <50%
Realized Price Rising (cost basis increases) Flat or falling
Current status (May 2026):
· Unrealized profit margin: +34%
· Supply in profit: ~65%
· Market phase: Correction / Reset
Bottom Line
When >95% of supply is in profit → sell signal.
When <50% → buy signal.
Right now, we're in between. The reset phase.
History doesn't repeat perfectly – but it rhymes.
#Bitcoin #OnChain #CryptoQuant #Glassnode #MarketCycles

But here's what the headlines aren't telling you.
✅ THE APPROVALS ARE REAL
· Approximately 10 Chinese companies approved
· Nvidia stock jumped +4.39% to a 52‑week high of $236.54
⚠️ BUT NO CHIPS HAVE SHIPPED
· As of May 15, 2026: zero H200 chips delivered to China
🚫 BEIJING IS BLOCKING ORDERS
· Chinese firms have been instructed to withdraw or pause orders
· Reason: Importing U.S. chips undermines domestic AI development (Huawei Ascend, etc.)
💰 THE PRICE TAG
· Each H200 chip (~$30,000 market price) carries a 25% tariff = ~$7,500 per chip to U.S. government
🔒 SECURITY STRINGS ATTACHED
· Chips must transit through U.S. territory first
· Buyers must prove adequate security measures
· No military use guarantee required
📉 THE BIGGER PICTURE
· Nvidia's high‑end AI chip market share in China fell from ~95% to effectively 0% under export controls
· Jensen Huang: "Our share in high‑end AI chips in China is essentially zero"
THE BOTTOM LINE:
The pipeline is cracked open, not fully reopened. Licenses approved. But chips aren't moving. Beijing is resisting. Tariffs apply. Security conditions remain.
Wall Street celebrated the signal. The actual flow of chips? Still blocked.
#Nvidia #Aİ #China #Semiconductors #NVDA

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Summit Day 2: Energy Deals in Focus
U.S. officials raised the prospect of China buying more American energy after Presidents Trump and Xi held talks in Beijing on Thursday.
Key developments:
· The White House said Xi expressed interest in buying more U.S. oil to reduce China's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly 30-40% of China's energy supplies flow.
· Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that Alaskan oil production would be a "natural" fit for Chinese purchases.
· However, there was no mention of energy purchases in Chinese state media summaries of the meeting.
Reality check: Even at its peak, the U.S. has never been a major crude supplier to China. Imports peaked at about 395,000 barrels per day in 2020 (under 4% of China's total imports), falling to 193,000 bpd in 2024 (worth $6 billion). China has not imported any U.S. oil since May 2025 due to 20% tariffs. Removing those duties would be a prerequisite for any large-scale resumption.
🗳️ CLARITY Act PASSES Senate Committee – Major Crypto Win
In a landmark development, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday in a 15-9 bipartisan vote.
The vote breakdown: Two Democrats – Senators Ruben Gallego and Alsobrooks – joined all Republicans in support. The bill now advances to a merger with the Agriculture Committee's version, then to the full Senate.
What's in the bill:
· Clear SEC vs. CFTC jurisdiction lines for digital assets.
· Stablecoin compromise: No yield for passive holding, but activity-based rewards (staking, trading) are permitted.
· Protections for non-custodial developers from being treated as money transmitters.
What's next: The bill must clear a 60-vote cloture hurdle in the full Senate. A final vote could come by June or July.
On the flip side: Senator Elizabeth Warren's three proposed amendments – including one targeting Jeffrey Epstein's reported $3M Coinbase investment – were all defeated along party lines (11-13).
📉 Crypto & Markets: Red Day as Inflation Bites
The crypto market moved sharply lower on Thursday as hotter-than-expected inflation data and heavy ETF outflows pressured sentiment.
The numbers (as of Friday evening):
· Bitcoin (BTC): ~$79,600 (-2.5%)
· Ethereum (ETH): ~$2,260 (-2%)
· Total crypto market cap: $2.58 trillion (-1.6%)
· Liquidations (24hr): $410M+ (mostly longs)
The catalyst: The U.S. Producer Price Index surged 6% year-over-year – significantly above expectations – reinforcing fears that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
ETF outflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635 million in net outflows – the largest single-day withdrawal in 105 days.
Where BTC stands: Support at $79,000 is the immediate line to hold. A break below opens the path toward $74,000-$75,000. Resistance remains at $85,000.
🛢️ Oil & Gold: Holding Steady
Oil prices remained elevated near $101/barrel (WTI), supported by tightening supply and strong demand despite macro volatility.
Gold consolidated near $4,695/oz – down slightly for the second consecutive day – as the strong dollar and higher rate expectations create short-term valuation pressure.
🔮 What to Watch This Weekend
· Trump-Xi summit concludes – any formal trade or energy announcements
· Iran diplomacy – watch for any movement on the Strait of Hormuz
· Crypto – whether BTC can hold $79,000 support
#TrumpXi #CLARITYAct #OilPrices #CryptoMarket $BTC