Markets are pricing a high chance of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting — roughly ~89% probability.
The target rate referred to (3.50–3.75%) suggests that traders expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates from the current level at that upcoming meeting.
📊 How These Odds Are Derived
These probabilities are usually calculated from futures or options markets, like the CME FedWatch Tool, which use pricing differences to infer expectations for future rate decisions.
When traders buy/sell futures based on expectations of lower rates, it pushes the implied probability up.
📌 Why the Market Might Be Expecting a Cut
Common reasons markets might price in a Fed rate cut include:
Slowing inflation — if inflation continues to come down toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
Slower economic data — weaker growth, employment slowing, or lower consumer spending.
Financial stress — tightening credit conditions or volatility that worries markets.
Guidance from the Fed — if recent Fed leaders’ comments suggest openness to cuts.
🧠 Important to Know
These are market expectations, not official Fed guidance. The Fed could decide differently based on data between now and the meeting.
Odds can shift quickly with new economic reports (CPI, jobs numbers, GDP), Fed speeches, or global events.
An ~89% probability reflects pricing — not a guarantee.
High volume confirms distribution / sell pressure, not a weak pullback
Technical Structure
Trend: Bearish (lower highs + lower lows)
Momentum: Sellers in control after rejection near 0.0065
Liquidity: Longs likely trapped above → downside liquidity still unfilled
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.00595 – 0.00610 (intraday supply)
0.00645 – 0.00660 (major rejection zone)
Support:
0.00540 (minor, already tested)
0.00500 (psychological & liquidity pool)
0.00460 (next major downside target)
Short Setup (Preferred Bias)
Entry Zone: 0.00590 – 0.00610
Stop Loss: Above 0.00660
Targets:
TP1: 0.00520
TP2: 0.00500
TP3: 0.00460
Risk–Reward: Favorable if price retests supply and shows rejectio
Alternative Scenario
If price reclaims and holds above 0.00660, bearish structure invalidates
In that case, expect consolidation before any bullish continuation
No longs until clear reclaim + volume confirmatio
Outlook
📉 Bearish continuation favored Rallies are considered sell-the-pump until structure changes. Patience for pullback entries is key — chasing here is not optimal.
Market Structure: GHST saw a sharp impulsive pump followed by an equally strong rejection from the 0.21–0.22 zone. Since that rejection, price has been printing lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term bearish structure. Current price is hovering around 0.173, sitting weakly above intraday support.
Support: 0.170 – 0.168, then 0.163, and 0.155 below
Bias: Bearish while below 0.185. Any upside move into resistance looks corrective rather than trend reversal.
Trade Idea (Short Setup):
Entry Zone: 0.180 – 0.190
Stop Loss: Above 0.205
Targets:
TP1: 0.168
TP2: 0.163
TP3: 0.155
Alternative Scenario: If price loses 0.168 with strong volume, expect continuation toward 0.163 → 0.155 without meaningful pullback. Bullish reversal only becomes valid on a clean reclaim and hold above 0.205, which currently looks unlikely.
Conclusion: GHST is in a post-pump distribution phase. Until buyers reclaim higher resistance with volume, rallies are selling opportunities. Manage risk strictly and avoid chasing green candles.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always wait for confirmation and manage position size.
Market Structure: Price is in a clear higher high / higher low structure with strong bullish momentum. The recent breakout above 0.90 confirms strength, and dips are being aggressively bought. As long as price holds above key support, continuation to the upside is favored.
📈 Long Entry Zone
Entry: 0.88 – 0.90 (Preferred on a pullback / minor retrace)
🎯 Targets
TP1: 0.95
TP2: 1.02
TP3: 1.10
🛑 Stop Loss
SL: 0.84 (Below structure support & last higher low)
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance: 0.95, 1.02, 1.10
Support: 0.90, 0.88, 0.84
🧠 Outlook
Bullish momentum remains strong. Holding above 0.88–0.90 keeps the trend intact. A clean break and hold above 0.95 could accelerate price toward psychological levels above 1.00.
Risk management is key — scale profits and trail stops accordingly.
Market Structure: Price has shown a strong impulsive move to the upside after holding demand around the 0.0310–0.0315 zone. Momentum is bullish, and structure suggests continuation as long as price holds above support.
Long Entry Zone
Entry: 0.0326 – 0.0330 (pullback / minor retest zone)
As long as 0.0310 holds, the bias remains bullish. A clean hold above 0.0330 increases the probability of continuation toward higher resistance targets. Failure to hold support invalidates the setup.
Market Structure: Price is in a clear short-term uptrend with higher highs & higher lows. Recent consolidation above prior resistance suggests continuation if demand holds.
📌 Entry Zone
0.875 – 0.885
(Look for pullback & bullish confirmation in this zone)
🎯 Targets
TP1: 0.910
TP2: 0.940
TP3: 0.98
🛑 Stop Loss
0.848 (Invalidation below higher-low structure)
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance: 0.910 / 0.940 / 0.980
Support: 0.885 / 0.860 / 0.848
📊 Outlook
As long as price holds above 0.860–0.875, bullish continuation is favored. A clean breakout and hold above 0.910 can accelerate momentum toward higher targets.
$ASTER /USDT – Long Setup (Intraday / Short-Term Swing)
Market Context Price has swept liquidity below recent lows and is now consolidating above intraday support. Buyers are stepping in around the 0.69 demand zone, suggesting a potential continuation push toward the next resistance cluster.
📈 Long Entry
Entry Zone: 0.690 – 0.696 (Best entries on minor pullbacks into support)
🎯 Targets
TP1: 0.710 – Previous intraday high / first resistance
TP2: 0.725 – Range high & supply zone
TP3: 0.750 – Major resistance / expansion target
🛑 Stop Loss
SL: 0.678 (Below liquidity sweep & structure low)
🔑 Key Levels
Support: 0.690 / 0.678
Resistance: 0.710 / 0.725 / 0.750
Bias: Bullish while holding above 0.690 Invalidation: Clean breakdown and close below 0.678
Market Context: ACT has shown strong bullish momentum with a sharp impulse move (+25% day), followed by a healthy consolidation above prior support. Price is holding above the demand zone, suggesting continuation if buyers step in.
📍 Entry Zone
0.0268 – 0.0271
This zone aligns with the current consolidation base and previous breakout area.
🎯 Targets
Target 1: 0.0285
Target 2: 0.0298
Target 3: 0.0315
Partial profits recommended at each target.
🛑 Stop Loss
0.0260
Below local structure low and demand zone. Invalidation if price closes below this level
🔑 Key Levels
Support: 0.0268 / 0.0260
Resistance: 0.0285 / 0.0300 / 0.0315
📊 Bias
Bullish continuation while holding above 0.0260
Loss of 0.0260 may lead to deeper pullback before next move
Trade with proper risk management. Not financial advice.
Market Structure: Price has completed a short-term accumulation and printed a bullish break & hold above intraday resistance around the 0.0268–0.0270 zone. Momentum remains strong after a sharp impulse move, suggesting continuation as long as price holds above support.
Long Entry
Entry Zone: 0.0268 – 0.0273
Targets
Target 1: 0.0288
Target 2: 0.0301
Target 3: 0.0328
Stop Loss
Stop Loss: 0.0262 (Invalidation if price closes below this level)
Key Levels
Immediate Support: 0.0268 – 0.0270
Major Support: 0.0262
Resistance Zones: 0.0288 / 0.0300 / 0.0330
Outlook
As long as ACT/USDT holds above 0.0268, bullish continuation toward 0.030+ remains likely. A clean break above 0.0288 should accelerate momentum toward higher targets. Loss of 0.0262 would invalidate the setup.
Risk management is mandatory. Not financial advice.
HMSTR (+28%) & ACT (+24%) → These are top movers, likely driven by short-term momentum, news, or low-cap volatility. Moves like this are often late-stage pumps unless volume is still expanding.
Mid gainers: BARD (+11%), SIGN (+10%) → Healthier-looking moves. These often form continuation setups if they break and hold above intraday resistance.
Lower gainers: USTC, FIO, HEMI (6–9%) → These are usually early or lagging movers. Sometimes they rotate next if overall market sentiment stays bullish.
How to trade this (practical view)
Do NOT blindly chase green candles. Instead:
1️⃣ For scalps (short-term)
Focus on top 2–3 gainers
Enter only on pullbacks to VWAP / previous resistance
Market Structure: After a strong impulsive move up to 0.5049, price experienced a sharp sell-off toward 0.2520, forming a clear high-volatility deviation. Since then, price has been making higher lows, indicating a corrective bullish structure, but momentum is now weakening near resistance.
Key Resistance Zone
0.445 – 0.465
Multiple rejections in this zone
Recent candles show upper wicks + momentum loss
Price currently hovering below resistance (~0.433)
➡️ This suggests buyers are getting absorbed, not breaking through.
Key Support Zones
0.40 – 0.39 → First intraday support
0.35 – 0.34 → Major structure support
0.30 – 0.29 → High-liquidity demand zone
0.25 – 0.252 → Extreme support (previous wick low)
Bias
Short-term: Bearish / Pullback Expected Price failed to reclaim the prior resistance and is showing signs of distribution. The orange arrow you marked aligns with a liquidity sweep to the downside scenario.
Short Setup Idea (If Confirmed)
Entry Zone:
Rejection between 0.44 – 0.46
Targets:
TP1: 0.40
TP2: 0.35
TP3: 0.30
Extended: 0.25 (only if market momentum turns risk-off)
Current Price: ~62.6 Timeframe Observed: 1H Market Type: Meme / High Volatility
Market Structure
Clear bearish structure with consecutive lower highs & lower lows.
Strong impulsive sell-off from the 70–71 zone confirms distribution → markdown phase.
Current price is consolidating below broken support, now acting as resistance.
Key Levels
Resistance Zones
63.8 – 65.0 → Minor pullback resistance
67.5 – 69.0 → Major breakdown zone (strong sell pressure previously)
Support Zones
61.0 – 60.0 → Weak intraday support
58.5 – 57.0 → Next liquidity pocket
54.0 – 52.0 → Major downside target zone
Trade Idea (Short Bias)
Primary Scenario – Bearish Continuation
Entry Zone: 63.5 – 65.0 (pullback into resistance)
Targets:
TP1: 60.0
TP2: 58.5
TP3: 55.0
Stop Loss: Above 66.0 (structure invalidation)
Alternative Scenario
If price reclaims and holds above 66–67, bearish momentum weakens.
Sustained acceptance above 69+ would invalidate the short bias and shift to range/reversal conditions.
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Momentum & Sentiment
Strong bearish candles = aggressive sellers in control
Small green candles show weak relief bounce, not accumulation
Volume spike on sell-off confirms distribution exit
Conclusion
📉 Bias remains bearish Until GIGGLE reclaims key resistance levels, rallies are sell-the-pump opportunities. Expect further downside toward lower liquidity zones if support fails.
$ALLO /USDT – Short Setup After Local Resistance Rejection
Market Context: ALLO has shown a sharp impulsive move to the upside, followed by loss of momentum and consolidation near resistance. The recent pump looks corrective rather than trend-reversing, with price now stalling below a key supply zone.
Technical Structure:
Strong impulsive bullish candle (likely short squeeze / liquidity grab)
Price failed to continue higher → bearish follow-through weakened
Current structure suggests a lower high formation
Volume declining after the pump → buyers losing contro
Resistance Zone:
0.1075 – 0.1085 Clear rejection zone where price is struggling to break and hold abo
Short Entry Zone:
0.1065 – 0.1080 Look for rejection or bearish candle confirmation in this area.
Targets:
TP1: 0.1050
TP2: 0.1038
TP3: 0.1030 (major liquidity & demand test)
Stop Loss:
Above 0.1090 A clean break and close above invalidates the bearish setup.
Bias & Outlook:
📉 Bearish continuation expected unless price reclaims and holds above resistance with strong volume. This setup favors a pullback toward demand after a liquidity-driven pump
Market Structure: Price has swept sell-side liquidity near 0.0334–0.0336 and is now attempting to reclaim the intraday range. Buyers are stepping in after a minor accumulation phase, suggesting a potential short-term bullish continuation if support holds.
Market Structure: AT has printed a strong bullish impulse from the 0.078–0.080 demand zone and is now holding above the recent breakout area. Momentum remains positive as price consolidates above prior resistance, suggesting continuation if structure holds.
As long as AT holds above 0.082, bullish continuation remains favored. A clean break and close above 0.0915 should accelerate price toward higher targets. Manage risk properly and trail stops after T1 is secured.
Not financial advice. Trade with confirmation & risk management.
Price is reacting from a local demand zone near 0.11, showing early bullish candles on the lower timeframe. A sustained hold above 0.1130 keeps this relief rally valid. Break and acceptance above 0.1200 should open the path toward higher resistance levels. #TrumpTariffs #WriteToEarnUpgrade
$HEMI /USDT – LONG Setup Timeframe: 1H Market Bias: Bullish continuation after consolidation
Price Action Overview: HEMI is showing a clear higher low structure on the 1H timeframe after a strong impulse move. Price is currently consolidating above a key demand zone, indicating healthy accumulation rather than weakness. As long as price holds above support, continuation to the upside remains likely.
📍 Entry Zone (LONG)
0.0152 – 0.0156 → Buy on pullbacks into the demand zone / minor retracement.
🎯 Targets
Target 1: 0.0163
Target 2: 0.0172
Target 3: 0.0185
(Partial profits recommended at each target)
🛑 Stop Loss
0.0146 → Below key support & structure low to invalidate the setup.
🔑 Key Levels
Major Support: 0.0150 – 0.0152
Immediate Resistance: 0.0163
Breakout Zone: Above 0.0172
Invalidation Level: Below 0.0146
📊 Technical Confluence
Higher highs & higher lows intact
Bullish consolidation above demand
Volume remains supportive on pullbacks
No bearish structure break on HTF
Outlook: As long as 0.0150 support holds, bullish continuation toward 0.0172 – 0.0185 is expected. A clean breakout above 0.0163 can accelerate momentum.