SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is around 1.65% wide. The downtrend has lasted 21 hours 20 minutes, with the largest price decrease recorded at 15.92%. If price breaks this resistance zone, the trend will likely reverse upward.
The metals market is splitting as Copper and Aluminum stay supported by real supply stress, while Nickel and Zinc face inventory pressure
📌 Base metals are no longer moving as a broad rally. The LME Metals Index reached a new record, led by Copper and Aluminum, but the deeper signal is divergence between metals facing physical tightness and those still pressured by refined surplus.
💡 Aluminum has become the key highlight, rising to a 4-year high near 3,650 USD/ton. The LME cash–3m spread moved above 80 USD/ton, showing the tightest nearby conditions since 2022, while inventories remain low around 346,000–351,000 tons.
🔎 Copper remains well supported by power infrastructure, AI demand, and industrial supply chains. Strong nearby backwardation shows buyers are still paying a premium for immediate delivery, even as LME stocks fluctuate around 397,000–400,000 tons.
⚠️ Nickel and Zinc are weaker by comparison. Nickel is capped by high inventories, while Zinc faces expectations of a 2026 surplus as mines in Australia and Peru restart production. Without a fresh supply shock, both are more likely to move sideways or correct.
⛓️ Sulfuric acid is becoming a new bottleneck. China’s export halt has pushed spot acid prices up by more than 100%, pressuring copper leaching in Chile and HPAL nickel production in Indonesia. This also raises costs across the battery metals chain.
📈 China’s import data still points to firm physical demand. Copper concentrate and aluminum imports rose strongly in Q1–Q2, while silver imports hit a record 836 tons in March, up 173%, bringing Q1 total imports to 1,626 tons.
✅ The short-term view favors a selective rally rather than a broad bull market. Copper and Aluminum remain better supported if backwardation holds, while Nickel and Zinc need stronger catalysts. Next week, focus will be on LME stocks, sulfuric acid prices, and China restocking.
The USD dominated FX on May 11–16 as hot US inflation, higher yields, and the oil shock pushed capital back into the greenback
📌 The USD had one of its strongest weeks in months, with DXY rising from around 98 toward the 99+ area. The move was not only driven by safe-haven demand, but also by a major repricing of the US rate outlook after hotter-than-expected inflation data.
💡 US CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, while PPI climbed to 6.0%, showing that the energy shock is starting to feed into broader prices. With oil holding near $100 per barrel due to Iran tensions and Hormuz risks, the market quickly pushed back expectations for early Fed easing.
📈 Higher US Treasury yields, moving around the 4.5–4.7% area, strengthened the yield advantage of the USD. This pressured EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD, while USD/JPY continued moving toward the 158–160 zone despite intervention risks from Japan.
🔎 EUR/USD showed the clearest weakness, falling for five straight sessions and returning toward the 1.16 handle. GBP gained little support from stronger UK GDP, while AUD and NZD were hit by weaker risk appetite and reduced demand for commodity currencies.
🌐 Emerging-market FX also came under pressure, especially in Asian economies exposed to higher energy import costs. INR, IDR, KRW, PHP, and THB remained vulnerable to both USD strength and elevated oil prices, while carry-supported currencies such as MXN and ZAR showed better resilience.
⚠️ The key point is that FX did not fully follow the risk-on tone in US equities. In currency markets, the USD is currently acting as both a higher-yielding currency and a geopolitical safe-haven, making it difficult for other major currencies to recover strongly.
✅ Looking ahead, the short-term bias still favors the USD if oil stays high, US yields remain firm, and Hormuz tensions do not ease clearly. The biggest reversal risk would be a sharp drop in oil or a strong diplomatic signal that reduces both inflation premium and safe-haven demand.
📊 $TRIA – Liquidation Map (7 days) – Index ~0.0494
🔎 Quick read • The nearest long-liq cluster below sits at 0.0490–0.0475, with a thicker layer at 0.0466–0.0450, then a deeper pocket at 0.0450–0.0425. • Short-liq above starts at 0.0500–0.0511, becomes denser at 0.0511–0.0518, then extends toward 0.0520–0.0535, with a thinner outer layer at 0.0535–0.0552. • The area right around price at 0.0494–0.0500 is relatively thin, so once price leaves this pocket, the move can accelerate quickly.
🧭 Higher-probability path • The long-liq structure below still looks broader and heavier overall than the short-liq above, so the more likely path is a downside pull if price cannot reclaim 0.0500–0.0511 soon. • In that case, $TRIA could first drift into 0.0490–0.0475. If selling pressure continues, the move may extend lower into 0.0466–0.0450, then deeper toward 0.0450–0.0425.
🔁 Alternate path • If $TRIA holds 0.0490–0.0494 and reclaims 0.0500–0.0511, a relief bounce toward 0.0511–0.0518 remains possible. • If follow-through buying is strong enough, price could continue into 0.0520–0.0535 and then 0.0535–0.0552, although for now this still looks more like a technical rebound than an immediate large squeeze.
⚠️ Risk notes • Focus on break or pullback setups around 0.0490–0.0494 with tight risk control, since the liquidity layer near current price is still thin. • A loss of 0.0475 could open a faster downside pull, while even a push above 0.0518 can fade quickly if follow-through is not strong enough.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is around 0.65% wide. The downtrend has lasted 19 hours 50 minutes, with the largest price decrease recorded at 5.03%. If price breaks this resistance zone, the trend will likely reverse upward.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is around 0.43% wide. The downtrend has lasted 10 hours 40 minutes, with the largest price decrease recorded at 2.61%. If price breaks this resistance zone, the trend will likely reverse upward.
🔎 Quick read • The nearest long-liq cluster below sits at 43.3–42.7, gets clearly denser at 42.7–41.8, and deepens further at 41.8–40.9 → 40.9–38.8. • Short-liq above starts forming from 43.9–44.5, then thickens at 46.8–48.3, with farther clusters at 48.6–49.2 → 49.8–50.1. • The thin zone near price is around 43.3–43.9, which suggests price is sitting inside a relatively light-liquidity pocket; once it leaves this base, the move could accelerate more quickly.
🧭 Higher-probability path • The upper short-liq cluster currently looks broader and heavier overall, especially from 46.8 upward, so if $DASH holds 43.3–43.4 and gradually reclaims 43.9–44.5, the higher-probability path is a sweep toward 46.8–48.3 first. • If short pressure continues to unwind, the move could extend into 48.6–49.2, and farther toward 49.8–50.1.
🔁 Alternate path • If $DASH loses 43.3–43.4, price could slide into 43.3–42.7 first. • If that zone fails to hold, the pull could continue into 42.7–41.8 and deeper toward 41.8–40.9 → 40.9–38.8, where long-liq below becomes much heavier.
📌 Navigation levels • Pivot: 43.3–43.4 • Bullish confirmation: 43.9–44.5 • Reaction support: 43.3–42.7 • Near resistance: 46.8–48.3, farther up at 48.6–49.2 → 49.8–50.1
⚠️ Risk notes • Favor break or pullback setups around 43.3–43.4 with tight invalidation, since the liquidity layer near price is still relatively thin. • Because this is a 7-day map, if price clears 48.3 decisively, trailing may make more sense; on the other hand, losing 42.7 would materially increase the risk of a deeper downside sweep.
SC02 M15 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is around 2.64% wide. The downtrend has lasted 5 days 11 hours, with the largest price decrease recorded at 34.59%. If price breaks this resistance zone, the trend will likely reverse upward.
SC02 M15 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 4.24% wide. The uptrend has lasted 1 day 2 hours 15 minutes, with the largest price increase recorded at 30.27%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.
Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed as US inflation heats up again, forcing markets to reprice global interest-rate expectations.
📌 Kevin Warsh officially steps into the Fed Chair role after a 54-45 Senate vote, a result that highlights deep political division around US monetary policy and the Fed’s independence.
💡 The key point is not only that he replaces Jerome Powell, but that Warsh takes office as US inflation rose to 3.8% YoY in April, while producer prices and energy costs continue to pressure inflation expectations.
⚠️ Although markets see Warsh as potentially more flexible than Powell, the Fed’s ability to quickly pivot toward rate cuts remains limited. With inflation still hot, any premature easing signal could push Treasury yields higher and raise doubts about the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility.
🔎 The short-term impact therefore leans cautious. The USD and US yields may stay supported, while gold, crypto, and growth stocks could remain volatile if markets continue to reduce rate-cut expectations for 2026.
⏱️ The next key event is the June FOMC meeting, where markets will look for the first signal on how Warsh balances political pressure, high inflation, and liquidity risks. For Telegram, this is a potential macro “regime shift” story, but it should be tracked through CPI data and yields rather than early reactions to political expectations.
🔎 Quick read • The nearest long-liq cluster below sits at 0.223–0.2206, gets clearly denser at 0.2206–0.211, and deepens further at 0.2086–0.1934. • Short-liq above starts forming from 0.2334–0.2378, then thickens at 0.2378–0.2402, with farther clusters at 0.245–0.2522, and an outer but thinner layer at 0.255–0.2606. • The thin zone near price is around 0.2282–0.2334, which suggests price is sitting inside a relatively light-liquidity pocket; once it leaves this base, the move could accelerate more quickly.
🧭 Higher-probability path • The lower long-liq cluster is still broader and heavier overall below current price, while price still needs to reclaim some distance before reaching the denser short-liq cluster overhead, so the more visible path is a downside pull unless 0.2334–0.2378 is reclaimed soon. • In that case, $UB could slide into 0.223–0.2206 first, then extend toward 0.2206–0.211. If selling pressure continues, 0.2086–0.1934 becomes the deeper attraction zone.
🔁 Alternate path • If $UB holds 0.223–0.2282 and reclaims 0.2334–0.2378, price could still open a rebound toward 0.2378–0.2402. • If follow-through is strong enough, the rebound could extend into 0.245–0.2522, and farther toward 0.255–0.2606, but for now this still looks more like a technical rebound than an immediate large squeeze.
📌 Navigation levels • Pivot: 0.223–0.2282 • Bullish confirmation: 0.2334–0.2378 • Reaction support: 0.223–0.2206 • Near resistance: 0.2378–0.2402, farther up at 0.245–0.2522 → 0.255–0.2606
⚠️ Risk notes • Prefer watching break or pullback setups around 0.223–0.2282 with tight invalidation, since the liquidity layer near price is still relatively thin. • If 0.2206 breaks, the downside pull can open faster; on the other hand, even if price clears 0.2402, the rebound may still fade early without strong enough follow-through.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 0.59% wide. The uptrend has lasted 5 hours 37 minutes, with the largest price increase recorded at 8.22%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + meets positive simplification with a previously highly profitable Long order, the current support zone is around 1.87% wide. The uptrend has lasted 3 hours 36 minutes, with the largest price increase recorded at 30.12%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.
U.S. pledge to fully refill SPR turns emergency oil reserves from a short-term price-cooling tool into a major post-crisis restocking demand source
📌 The U.S. said it will replenish every barrel released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with a mechanism in which each 1 barrel released would bring back at least 1.2 barrels. This signal is meant to reassure the market that the current drawdown does not mean a long-term weakening of U.S. energy security.
💡 The key point is that SPR has fallen sharply as Hormuz tensions raise global supply risks. Using the reserve helps add temporary supply, easing some pressure on WTI, gasoline prices, and short-term shortage concerns.
⚠️ However, the impact of this news is not entirely bearish for oil. If the barrels are returned with a 20% premium, the post-crisis phase could create a larger restocking demand than the amount released, adding a new support layer for oil prices.
🔎 For the market, the SPR story now has two clear phases. The first is releasing oil to soften the supply shock, while the second is buying back barrels to rebuild strategic reserves. As a result, oil prices may cool in the near term but are unlikely to fall deeply if Hormuz risks remain unresolved.
✅ Overall, the Energy Secretary’s statement helps reduce concern that SPR is being permanently depleted, but it also reminds the market that every barrel released today could become future buying demand.
🔎 Quick read • The nearest long-liq cluster below sits at 0.0908–0.0893, gets clearly denser at 0.0893–0.0883, and deepens further at 0.0883–0.0841 → 0.0841–0.0801. • Short-liq above starts forming from 0.0921–0.0935, then thickens at 0.0955–0.0985, with farther clusters at 0.0995–0.1035. • The thin zone near price is around 0.0908–0.0921, which suggests price is sitting inside a relatively light-liquidity pocket; once it leaves this base, the move could accelerate more quickly.
🧭 Higher-probability path • The upper short-liq cluster currently looks broader and heavier overall, especially from 0.0921 upward, so if $POL holds 0.0893–0.0908 and gradually reclaims 0.0921–0.0935, the higher-probability path is a sweep toward 0.0955–0.0985 first. • If short pressure continues to unwind, the move could extend into 0.0995–0.1035.
🔁 Alternate path • If $POL loses 0.0893–0.0908, price could slide into 0.0908–0.0893 first. • If that zone fails to hold, the pull could continue into 0.0893–0.0883 and deeper toward 0.0883–0.0841 → 0.0841–0.0801, where long-liq below becomes much heavier.
📌 Navigation levels • Pivot: 0.0893–0.0908 • Bullish confirmation: 0.0921–0.0935 • Reaction support: 0.0908–0.0893 • Near resistance: 0.0955–0.0985, farther up at 0.0995–0.1035
⚠️ Risk notes • Favor break or pullback setups around 0.0893–0.0908 with tight invalidation, since the liquidity layer near price is still relatively thin. • Because this is a 7-day map, if price clears 0.0985 decisively, trailing may make more sense; on the other hand, losing 0.0883 would materially increase the risk of a deeper downside sweep.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 5.49% wide. The uptrend has lasted 3 hours 56 minutes, with the largest price increase recorded at 40.13%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.
SC02 M15 - pending Long order. Entry contains POC + meets positive simplification with 2 consecutive previously highly profitable Long orders, the current support zone is around 4.57% wide. The uptrend has lasted 21 hours 45 minutes, with the largest price increase recorded at 24.57%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.
Starbucks continues to streamline its corporate structure to protect margins during Brian Niccol’s turnaround phase
📌 Starbucks is cutting another 300 corporate jobs in the US and closing several regional offices in Atlanta, Burbank, Chicago and Dallas, while café employees are not affected. The move shows the company is focusing on back-office cost control rather than directly shrinking its retail operations.
💡 The key figure is the estimated $400 million restructuring charge, including $120 million in severance costs and $280 million in real estate impairment. This is a sizable short-term cost, but the market may view it as Starbucks accepting near-term pain to build a leaner operating structure.
🔎 This round of cuts is part of CEO Brian Niccol’s “Back to Starbucks” strategy, which aims to reduce complexity, prioritize core work and return the business to profitable growth. Several corporate cuts within just over a year also show that management is executing the turnaround plan quite aggressively.
⚠️ The current backdrop is mixed. US same-store sales have shown signs of improvement, but operating margins remain under heavy pressure compared with when Niccol took over. The next key point is not only whether revenue keeps recovering, but whether tighter costs can translate into clearer margin improvement over the next few quarters.
✅ For SBUX shares, the news is mildly positive in the short term because it reinforces expectations for cost discipline. However, if cuts go too deep and affect marketing capacity, product innovation or internal morale, medium-term risks could return, especially as the market has already priced in a meaningful part of Starbucks’ recovery story.
🔎 Quick read • The nearest long-liq cluster below sits at 0.369–0.357, gets clearly denser at 0.357–0.349, and deepens further at 0.349–0.341. • Short-liq above starts forming from 0.371–0.383, then thickens at 0.399–0.415, with a farther layer at 0.419–0.423. • The thin zone near price is around 0.369–0.371, which suggests price is sitting right at the edge of a relatively light-liquidity pocket; once it leaves this base, the move could accelerate more quickly.
🧭 Higher-probability path • The upper short-liq cluster currently looks broader and heavier overall, especially from 0.399 upward, so if $LDO holds 0.365–0.369 and gradually reclaims 0.371–0.383, the higher-probability path is a sweep toward 0.399–0.415 first. • If short pressure continues to unwind, the move could extend into 0.419–0.423.
🔁 Alternate path • If $LDO loses 0.365–0.369, price could slide into 0.369–0.357 first. • If that zone fails to hold, the pull could continue into 0.357–0.349 and deeper toward 0.349–0.341, where long-liq below becomes much heavier.
📌 Navigation levels • Pivot: 0.365–0.369 • Bullish confirmation: 0.371–0.383 • Reaction support: 0.369–0.357 • Near resistance: 0.399–0.415, farther up at 0.419–0.423
⚠️ Risk notes • Favor break or pullback setups around 0.365–0.369 with tight invalidation, since the liquidity layer near price is still relatively thin. • Because this is a 7-day map, if price clears 0.415 decisively, trailing may make more sense; on the other hand, losing 0.357 would materially increase the risk of a deeper downside sweep.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 1.00% wide. The uptrend has lasted 1 hour 37 minutes, with the largest price increase recorded at 5.54%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.