The Analysts Notebook
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The Analysts Notebook
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356 ဖော်လိုလုပ်သူများ
286 လိုက်ခ်လုပ်ထားသည်
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Quotes
Everything is playing out just as I said it would.
The $BTC cycle is repeating the same pattern once again.
$BTC under the MA200 → Accumulate and buy
$BTC pushes above the MA200 → Hold until day 1000
Simple framework. Zero emotion.
That alone puts you ahead of 99% of crypto traders.
MY NEXT CALL WILL BE THE LARGEST OF THIS ENTIRE CYCLE.
NOTIFICATIONS ON. MOST PEOPLE WILL CATCH ON TOO LATE.
Credit- Tony Research
The $BTC cycle is repeating the same pattern once again.
$BTC under the MA200 → Accumulate and buy
$BTC pushes above the MA200 → Hold until day 1000
Simple framework. Zero emotion.
That alone puts you ahead of 99% of crypto traders.
MY NEXT CALL WILL BE THE LARGEST OF THIS ENTIRE CYCLE.
NOTIFICATIONS ON. MOST PEOPLE WILL CATCH ON TOO LATE.
Credit- Tony Research
🚨 MOST PEOPLE AREN’T PREPARED FOR WHAT HAPPENS UNDER $58K
$BTC has done it once more. Down 52% from the peak.
$126,000 → $58,000 → $62,000
This isn’t a crash — it’s the fourth time the same pattern has played out.
Everyone’s labeling it dead money.
They said the exact same thing in December 2018.
And once more in November 2022.
Here are the anchor points:
OCT 6, 2025 – $BTC hits an all-time high around $126,000
FEB 6, 2026 – it finds a bottom near $60,000. A 52% drawdown.
Today – it’s hovering around $62,000, still trapped in that zone.
The last halving happened in April 2024. The next arrives in early 2028.
Now for the precedent:
December 2018 low: $3,200
November 2021 peak: $69,000
Nearly three years exactly
November 2022 low: $15,500
October 2025 peak: $126,000
Nearly three years exactly
Two times in a row. Identical duration. Identical shape.
Sit with that for a moment.
Here’s the mechanism:
• Each halving slashes new supply by 50%
• Miners have less to sell
• The supply shock needs 12–18 months before it shows up in price
• Then comes the parabolic move. Then euphoria. Then leverage gets flushed in the unwind
- Then bottom. Then it reloads
And there's more
Sentiment right now is exhausted, not euphoric. Historically that exhaustion IS bottom signal, not a warning sign
So now connect dots
If cycle holds a third time, low isn't a theory anymore. It's a live countdown into Q4 2026
And what's come after a bottom in this pattern has never been a bounce
It's been a three-year run
You're either positioning now or you're chasing it in 2028
I called 2025 $BTC ATH along with drops from $98K → $60K and $83K → $58K before they happened
Next call matters more
Turn on notifications so you don't miss it
Credit- Aralez
$BTC has done it once more. Down 52% from the peak.
$126,000 → $58,000 → $62,000
This isn’t a crash — it’s the fourth time the same pattern has played out.
Everyone’s labeling it dead money.
They said the exact same thing in December 2018.
And once more in November 2022.
Here are the anchor points:
OCT 6, 2025 – $BTC hits an all-time high around $126,000
FEB 6, 2026 – it finds a bottom near $60,000. A 52% drawdown.
Today – it’s hovering around $62,000, still trapped in that zone.
The last halving happened in April 2024. The next arrives in early 2028.
Now for the precedent:
December 2018 low: $3,200
November 2021 peak: $69,000
Nearly three years exactly
November 2022 low: $15,500
October 2025 peak: $126,000
Nearly three years exactly
Two times in a row. Identical duration. Identical shape.
Sit with that for a moment.
Here’s the mechanism:
• Each halving slashes new supply by 50%
• Miners have less to sell
• The supply shock needs 12–18 months before it shows up in price
• Then comes the parabolic move. Then euphoria. Then leverage gets flushed in the unwind
- Then bottom. Then it reloads
And there's more
Sentiment right now is exhausted, not euphoric. Historically that exhaustion IS bottom signal, not a warning sign
So now connect dots
If cycle holds a third time, low isn't a theory anymore. It's a live countdown into Q4 2026
And what's come after a bottom in this pattern has never been a bounce
It's been a three-year run
You're either positioning now or you're chasing it in 2028
I called 2025 $BTC ATH along with drops from $98K → $60K and $83K → $58K before they happened
Next call matters more
Turn on notifications so you don't miss it
Credit- Aralez
$BTC
This Bitcoin chart hasn’t missed yet.
The pattern is straightforward:
Bear phase – 365 days
Bull phase – 1064 days
Going by the data, we’re roughly 75% through the bear phase.
Expect one last shakeout before the new bull cycle begins.
A quick note: I spotted Bitcoin’s 2022 low and the 2025 peak before most people did.
Missed those calls? No problem — the next one is coming too.
Keep an eye on my posts over the coming days and weeks. Notifications on.
Credit- Crypto Lens
This Bitcoin chart hasn’t missed yet.
The pattern is straightforward:
Bear phase – 365 days
Bull phase – 1064 days
Going by the data, we’re roughly 75% through the bear phase.
Expect one last shakeout before the new bull cycle begins.
A quick note: I spotted Bitcoin’s 2022 low and the 2025 peak before most people did.
Missed those calls? No problem — the next one is coming too.
Keep an eye on my posts over the coming days and weeks. Notifications on.
Credit- Crypto Lens
The odds of the $BTC bottom being in already? Basically zero.
2015: BTC found its bottom at -87%
2018: BTC found its bottom at -84%
2022: BTC found its bottom at -77%
2026: we’re currently only -53% from the ATH
Each cycle’s drawdown gets a little shallower, so a realistic bottom lands around -70% (~$40k)
Credit- Cyclop
2015: BTC found its bottom at -87%
2018: BTC found its bottom at -84%
2022: BTC found its bottom at -77%
2026: we’re currently only -53% from the ATH
Each cycle’s drawdown gets a little shallower, so a realistic bottom lands around -70% (~$40k)
Credit- Cyclop
Spot $XRP ETFs just bled $4.69M in two days… 👀
US-listed spot XRP ETFs have recorded back-to-back sessions of net outflows, shedding a combined –$4.69M.
Notably, this marks the first consecutive-day outflow streak since early March — a shift worth watching for $XRP sentiment.
US-listed spot XRP ETFs have recorded back-to-back sessions of net outflows, shedding a combined –$4.69M.
Notably, this marks the first consecutive-day outflow streak since early March — a shift worth watching for $XRP sentiment.
Russia has officially legalized Bitcoin$BTC and stablecoin payments for cross-border trade as of July 1, 2026, capping a two-year pilot that processed roughly $11 billion in crypto-settled commerce. The Bank of Russia will follow with a full crypto regulation law on September 1, 2026, introducing licensing for exchanges and custodians, with a transition period running to mid-2027.
The framework is tightly controlled: domestic crypto payments remain banned, transfers over ~$1,300 must be reported to the central bank, and trade flows are routed through eight state-approved exchanges. The goal is clear — keep sanctioned trade in oil, metals, and grain moving outside the SWIFT/dollar system.
For markets, this is a structural adoption story rather than a price catalyst: a G20 commodity exporter making BTC settlement official state policy, with potential knock-on demand if other BRICS partners follow the model.
The framework is tightly controlled: domestic crypto payments remain banned, transfers over ~$1,300 must be reported to the central bank, and trade flows are routed through eight state-approved exchanges. The goal is clear — keep sanctioned trade in oil, metals, and grain moving outside the SWIFT/dollar system.
For markets, this is a structural adoption story rather than a price catalyst: a G20 commodity exporter making BTC settlement official state policy, with potential knock-on demand if other BRICS partners follow the model.
Trump made more from crypto than Coinbase…?!?!
According to @MSBIntel, President Trump made a staggering $1.4 BILLION from cryptocurrency in 2025, while @Coinbase made only $1.26 billion, despite being “the most profitable US-listed crypto firm”.
@realDonaldTrump is exposed to various cryptocurrency projects since taking office last year, including both the $TRUMP memecoin and @worldlibertyfi $WLFI
Source: BSCN
According to @MSBIntel, President Trump made a staggering $1.4 BILLION from cryptocurrency in 2025, while @Coinbase made only $1.26 billion, despite being “the most profitable US-listed crypto firm”.
@realDonaldTrump is exposed to various cryptocurrency projects since taking office last year, including both the $TRUMP memecoin and @worldlibertyfi $WLFI
Source: BSCN
$BTC
I’ve been trading for 10 years and never seen so much stacked long liquidity on a single level
Once we reach 58K, dump will be brutal
There will be $2B liquidations with a final huge crash that will mark this cycle bottom
Throughout this cycles’ market has been purely driven by liquidity, chopping from one imbalance to another
So far pattern continues repeating
My view remains that we must eventually drop to 55K and 50K and even eventually might get 42K and that perfectly lines both mathematically and with historical patterns right now
Plus macro bottom never feels like one, it usually comes after most aggressive liquidation event of the cycle when nobody expects it
Once that happens, when liquidity is fully taken, there’s nothing left to dump and that’s how bottom will be formed
Either way, I am already buying and will continue DCA at
58K
55K
52K
That’s my 9th year in crypto, I bought BTC at 16k last cycle, I called the exact 126K BTC top. swing short at 70K, called recent 20x memes
I genuinely believe I can help you make money on crypto
I post a lot of educational content and my trades, you can find everything in “highlights” tab on my profile
So make sure to follow me and turn on notifications – I’ve got plenty more profitable calls coming 🤝
I’ve been trading for 10 years and never seen so much stacked long liquidity on a single level
Once we reach 58K, dump will be brutal
There will be $2B liquidations with a final huge crash that will mark this cycle bottom
Throughout this cycles’ market has been purely driven by liquidity, chopping from one imbalance to another
So far pattern continues repeating
My view remains that we must eventually drop to 55K and 50K and even eventually might get 42K and that perfectly lines both mathematically and with historical patterns right now
Plus macro bottom never feels like one, it usually comes after most aggressive liquidation event of the cycle when nobody expects it
Once that happens, when liquidity is fully taken, there’s nothing left to dump and that’s how bottom will be formed
Either way, I am already buying and will continue DCA at
58K
55K
52K
That’s my 9th year in crypto, I bought BTC at 16k last cycle, I called the exact 126K BTC top. swing short at 70K, called recent 20x memes
I genuinely believe I can help you make money on crypto
I post a lot of educational content and my trades, you can find everything in “highlights” tab on my profile
So make sure to follow me and turn on notifications – I’ve got plenty more profitable calls coming 🤝
11 Blockchains Ranked by User Retention Rates
1. Ethereum - 26.2%
2. BNB Chain - 20.5%
3. Ronin Network - 19.1%
4. Base - 17.3%
5. Arbitrum - 16.6%
6. Optimism - 16.4%
7. Avax - 15.1%
8. Polygon - 14.2%
9. Aptos - 13.1%
10. Solana - 7.9%
11. Sui Network - 4.6%
Read the full study: gcko.io/y8ushmb
1. Ethereum - 26.2%
2. BNB Chain - 20.5%
3. Ronin Network - 19.1%
4. Base - 17.3%
5. Arbitrum - 16.6%
6. Optimism - 16.4%
7. Avax - 15.1%
8. Polygon - 14.2%
9. Aptos - 13.1%
10. Solana - 7.9%
11. Sui Network - 4.6%
Read the full study: gcko.io/y8ushmb
$BTC is currently trading around $59,700–60,000, down ~7% over the past week and consolidating in the broader 59K–65K range.
📊 Key levels to watch:
• Immediate support: $58,000
• Major support: $55,000
• Resistance: $65,000 (needs strong volume to reclaim)
🔍 What’s happening: Institutional funds are seeing short-term net outflows and sentiment is soft, which is pressuring price toward the 58K zone. That said, on-chain data shows whales and strategic buyers stepping in at these lower levels — a classic bull/bear tug-of-war at support.
⚠️ Scenario: If a bearish catalyst hits, watch for a break below 58K opening the door to the 55K support zone. Holding above 58K keeps the range-bound structure intact.
This isn’t financial advice — manage your risk, size positions sensibly, and watch volume for confirmation before reacting to any breakout or breakdown.
📊 Key levels to watch:
• Immediate support: $58,000
• Major support: $55,000
• Resistance: $65,000 (needs strong volume to reclaim)
🔍 What’s happening: Institutional funds are seeing short-term net outflows and sentiment is soft, which is pressuring price toward the 58K zone. That said, on-chain data shows whales and strategic buyers stepping in at these lower levels — a classic bull/bear tug-of-war at support.
⚠️ Scenario: If a bearish catalyst hits, watch for a break below 58K opening the door to the 55K support zone. Holding above 58K keeps the range-bound structure intact.
This isn’t financial advice — manage your risk, size positions sensibly, and watch volume for confirmation before reacting to any breakout or breakdown.
🔵 ETH/USDT Daily — Triple Confluence Support at $2,150
ETH is sitting on three major supports converging at the same level right now:
① Daily 100MA — $2,148
② Horizontal Support — $2,150–2,160
③ Ascending Trendline from February lows
RSI at 38.52 — approaching oversold on the daily. Selling pressure is fading.
📌 Two scenarios:
🟢 Hold & reclaim $2,220 → bullish structure intact
🔴 Daily close below $2,100 → trendline breakdown, reassess
This is a high-probability reaction zone. Bulls need to defend here.
DYOR. Not financial advice.
#ETH #ETHUSDT #Binance #CryptoAnalysis
ETH is sitting on three major supports converging at the same level right now:
① Daily 100MA — $2,148
② Horizontal Support — $2,150–2,160
③ Ascending Trendline from February lows
RSI at 38.52 — approaching oversold on the daily. Selling pressure is fading.
📌 Two scenarios:
🟢 Hold & reclaim $2,220 → bullish structure intact
🔴 Daily close below $2,100 → trendline breakdown, reassess
This is a high-probability reaction zone. Bulls need to defend here.
DYOR. Not financial advice.
#ETH #ETHUSDT #Binance #CryptoAnalysis
3,614,990 ETH in the entry queue.
438,758 ETH in the exit queue.
62 day wait to stake.
Smart money isn't selling. It's standing in line.
$ETH long term is not a debate. 🐂🔵
438,758 ETH in the exit queue.
62 day wait to stake.
Smart money isn't selling. It's standing in line.
$ETH long term is not a debate. 🐂🔵
$RAVE : A Textbook Rugpull
RAVEUSDT skyrocketed from $0.22 to $28.30 before collapsing 97% to under $0.90. The vertical pump-and-dump left retail traders holding worthless bags while insiders extracted liquidity. With MACD deep in the red and RSI below 40, recovery looks unlikely. Classic rugpull — avoid at all costs.
RAVEUSDT skyrocketed from $0.22 to $28.30 before collapsing 97% to under $0.90. The vertical pump-and-dump left retail traders holding worthless bags while insiders extracted liquidity. With MACD deep in the red and RSI below 40, recovery looks unlikely. Classic rugpull — avoid at all costs.
🔥 Ethereum Foundation Staked 70,000 $ETH — This Is Bigger Than You Think!
The Ethereum Foundation just completed staking 70,000 ETH (~$143M), and this is a massive long-term bullish signal. Instead of dumping ETH to fund operations like before, they’re now earning staking yield. That means less sell pressure hitting the market.
Think about it — the very organization that builds Ethereum is now locking up treasury funds and earning yield like a long-term holder. That’s confidence.
Less liquid supply. Reduced sell pressure. Sustainable treasury. Institutional credibility.
ETH isn’t dead — it’s just getting started. 📈🫡
DYOR. NFA.
The Ethereum Foundation just completed staking 70,000 ETH (~$143M), and this is a massive long-term bullish signal. Instead of dumping ETH to fund operations like before, they’re now earning staking yield. That means less sell pressure hitting the market.
Think about it — the very organization that builds Ethereum is now locking up treasury funds and earning yield like a long-term holder. That’s confidence.
Less liquid supply. Reduced sell pressure. Sustainable treasury. Institutional credibility.
ETH isn’t dead — it’s just getting started. 📈🫡
DYOR. NFA.
Geopolitical Tensions Shift Markets: Are Regional Pains Crypto's Gain? 🐳
Conflict in the Middle East has theoretically triggered massive equity sell-offs. Recent analysis shows a combined $3.15 Trillion market cap loss across four major regions over just two days. Interestingly, this matches the $2.8 Trillion total value of the entire crypto market, which concurrently saw gains. Could decentralized assets be emerging as a digital safe haven?
#CryptoMarketSentiment😬📉📈
Conflict in the Middle East has theoretically triggered massive equity sell-offs. Recent analysis shows a combined $3.15 Trillion market cap loss across four major regions over just two days. Interestingly, this matches the $2.8 Trillion total value of the entire crypto market, which concurrently saw gains. Could decentralized assets be emerging as a digital safe haven?
#CryptoMarketSentiment😬📉📈
Spain os a sovereign state. They can do what they want. 🤝
Ibrina_ETH
·
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BREAKING: Trump Orders Trade Cut With Spain After Base Dispute Over Iran
This just took a serious turn.
President Trump says he has given instructions to cut off all trade with Spain after the Spanish government refused to allow the United States to use its airforce bases for potential military operations against Iran. This isn’t just a diplomatic disagreement — this is economic retaliation tied directly to military strategy.
Spain reportedly blocked the use of U.S. military bases on its soil for attacks related to Iran. From Spain’s perspective, it was about sovereignty and control over how their territory is used. From Trump’s perspective, it’s about loyalty and alignment in a high-stakes geopolitical moment.
And now trade is being pulled into the equation.
Cutting off all trade between two allied nations is not a small move. Spain is a NATO member. The United States and Spain have decades of economic and military cooperation. Supply chains, exports, imports, defense agreements — everything is interconnected. So when trade becomes a weapon, the ripple effects can be serious.
This situation shows how quickly military tensions can spill into economic policy. When geopolitics heats up, markets react. Businesses react. Investors react. Trade disruptions don’t just hurt governments — they impact companies, workers, and global supply networks.
The bigger question now is: does this escalate further?
Will this remain political pressure, or will actual tariffs, sanctions, or trade barriers follow? And how will Europe respond if the U.S. moves aggressively against one of its member states?
This is no longer just about airbases or Iran. It’s about alliance strength, economic leverage, and how modern power is exercised — not just through military force, but through trade.
One thing is clear: when politics and economics collide like this, volatility follows.
And the world is watching what happens next.
President Trump says he has given instructions to cut off all trade with Spain after the Spanish government refused to allow the United States to use its airforce bases for potential military operations against Iran. This isn’t just a diplomatic disagreement — this is economic retaliation tied directly to military strategy.
Spain reportedly blocked the use of U.S. military bases on its soil for attacks related to Iran. From Spain’s perspective, it was about sovereignty and control over how their territory is used. From Trump’s perspective, it’s about loyalty and alignment in a high-stakes geopolitical moment.
And now trade is being pulled into the equation.
Cutting off all trade between two allied nations is not a small move. Spain is a NATO member. The United States and Spain have decades of economic and military cooperation. Supply chains, exports, imports, defense agreements — everything is interconnected. So when trade becomes a weapon, the ripple effects can be serious.
This situation shows how quickly military tensions can spill into economic policy. When geopolitics heats up, markets react. Businesses react. Investors react. Trade disruptions don’t just hurt governments — they impact companies, workers, and global supply networks.
The bigger question now is: does this escalate further?
Will this remain political pressure, or will actual tariffs, sanctions, or trade barriers follow? And how will Europe respond if the U.S. moves aggressively against one of its member states?
This is no longer just about airbases or Iran. It’s about alliance strength, economic leverage, and how modern power is exercised — not just through military force, but through trade.
One thing is clear: when politics and economics collide like this, volatility follows.
And the world is watching what happens next.
US isn’t a trusted partner. They act on their own interests.
BullishBanter iii
·
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🚨 THE PETRODOLLAR IS SHAKING.
Saudi officials just dropped a line that echoes far beyond the battlefield:
“The United States abandoned us.”
For 50 years the deal was simple:
🛢 Oil in dollars.
🛡 Security from Washington.
That agreement built the modern dollar system.
Now Gulf states host US bases.
They take the risk.
They face the missiles.
And if protection feels uncertain… the foundation cracks.
This isn’t just war headlines.
This is about who controls global energy pricing.
Who backs the world’s reserve currency.
Who guarantees security in the Gulf.
No sudden collapse tomorrow.
But slow shifts begin quietly:
Yuan settlements.
Diversified reserves.
New defense partners.
If trust erodes, the dollar loses its strongest pillar.
And when pillars shake… the entire system feels it. 🌍🔥
Saudi officials just dropped a line that echoes far beyond the battlefield:
“The United States abandoned us.”
For 50 years the deal was simple:
🛢 Oil in dollars.
🛡 Security from Washington.
That agreement built the modern dollar system.
Now Gulf states host US bases.
They take the risk.
They face the missiles.
And if protection feels uncertain… the foundation cracks.
This isn’t just war headlines.
This is about who controls global energy pricing.
Who backs the world’s reserve currency.
Who guarantees security in the Gulf.
No sudden collapse tomorrow.
But slow shifts begin quietly:
Yuan settlements.
Diversified reserves.
New defense partners.
If trust erodes, the dollar loses its strongest pillar.
And when pillars shake… the entire system feels it. 🌍🔥
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