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#USNonFarmPayrollReport US NFP NOV’25 PREVIEW: We have released a detailed preview report on the Nov'25 Non Farm Payroll report.

1. We expect Nov'25 headline job gains fell to 80,000 in Nov’25 from 1,19,000 in Sep’25. Oct’ NFP we expect around -20,000. Federal government employment was likely a substantial drag though due to DOGE deferred resignations.

2. The unemployment rate likely remained sideways at 4.4% in November. Average hourly earnings
growth likely remained subdued in October before ticking higher in November. The average workweek appears to have improved in November as well, adding further support to labor income growth.

3. For now, the labor markets look stable. The year end seasonality might be a factor supporting labor markets as well.

4. Initial jobless claims have been subdued, continuing claims are sideways & employment component in service sector surveys have improved in last 2 months. Measures of labor demand have also improved in recent months, including the Conference Board labor differential and JOLTS job openings. But ADP private employment is a negative outlier, with a steep drop in November (-32k), following a solid 47k pickup in October.

5. The DOGE impact as per us is a 60k decline in October, followed by a 20k drag in November.

6. In summary, Oct & Nov NFP data can be very noisy and markets might not get a straight conclusion post the data release. We looked at 2013 shutdown to see possible patterns. In November 2013, the month following the federal government shutdown, the unemployment rate fell by 30bps. However, this was the result of a massive 940k gain in household employment, of which 340k were government wage and salary workers. The November jump followed a similarly outsized 880k drop in October household employment, of which 507k were government wage and salary workers.

7. On rate cut pricing, we don't expect much change post the NFP data release. We continue to expect two more rate cuts of 25 bps each in CY26, one in the 17th June FOMC meeting & the last cut in the 16th Sep FOMC meeting.

MACRO WARNING SIGNAL:

U.S. unemployment just hit 4.6%, the highest in over 4 years up 50 bps since June.
That’s a fast deterioration in the labor market.
What this means for crypto:

When unemployment rises this quickly, the Fed usually falls behind the curve.
That increases the odds of rate cuts, liquidity support, or both.

Historically:
Weak labor data → easier financial conditions
Easier conditions → stronger risk assets
Bitcoin tends to front-run Fed pivots

Short term: volatility.
Medium term: pressure builds for monetary easing.

Markets don’t wait for the Fed.
Bitcoin prices the response before it’s announced.
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