Randhawa Trades

As markets brace for the release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is pushing back against the prevailing view that inflation remains stubbornly above target.
His remarks come only days before the CPI data release on Thursday. This US economic data is likely to influence investor sentiment for Bitcoin.
Stephen Miran: The Fed Is Fighting the Wrong Inflation Ahead of CPI
Data on the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets are rethinking their interest rate bets, with traders wagering a 75.6% probability of no change in the January 2026 Fed meeting.
It comes as Miran argues that underlying inflation is already running close to the Fed’s 2% goal. He says that much of the remaining overshoot is driven by statistical distortions rather than excess demand.
“Underlying inflation is already running very close to the Fed’s 2% target,” Miran said in a post on X. “The majority of excess inflation over target is due to quirks of the statistical measurement process, not excess demand.”
At the center of Miran’s argument is shelter inflation. This is one of the largest and most persistent contributors to core inflation measures.
He noted that the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index captures housing costs for all tenants. This means it lags behind real-time market rents, which only reset when leases are renewed. According to Miran, that lag is now distorting the inflation picture.
Miran also addressed core non-housing services inflation, highlighting portfolio management fees as a key example. The policymaker argues that these artificially boost core PCE despite long-term fee compression in the asset management industry.
Because these fees are measured based on assets under management, rising equity markets can mechanically lift measured prices. This could happen even when actual costs to consumers are falling.
“It would be foolish of us to chase statistical quirks rather than focus on actual consumer prices,” Miran warned in his speech, suggesting that policy risks becoming overly restrictive if it reacts to such distortions.
Rethinking Tariffs and Goods Inflation as Forward-Looking Data Backs Disinflation
On goods inflation, Miran challenged the widely held belief that US tariffs are a major driver of recent price increases.
Drawing on trade elasticity research, he argued that exporters bear the majority of the tariff burden. This results in a relatively small and likely temporary impact on consumer prices.
Even under conservative assumptions, he estimated the effect on consumer prices to be around two-tenths of a percent. Ideally, it is closer to noise than a lasting inflationary impulse.
Miran’s view is echoed by Anna Wong of Bloomberg Economics, who pointed to forward-looking indicators suggesting renewed disinflation over the next six months.
Wong said core CPI goods are trending lower again, potentially by mid-2026, adding that markets may be underpricing the scale of rate cuts further out.
“The Fed can cut next year,” Wong wrote on X, arguing that if these signals hold, expectations for 2026 easing remain too conservative.
Together, the comments sharpen an emerging debate inside the Fed on whether policymakers are still fighting inflation pressures rooted in 2022 rather than current conditions.
With CPI due Thursday, the data will be closely watched for confirmation or contradiction of Miran’s claim that inflation is being overstated and that policy may already be tighter than necessary heading into 2026.
#BTC

Markets are in the last full trading week of 2025, and with Christmas Holidays approaching, Wall Street’s sector rotation is sending signals that crypto traders cannot ignore.
Capital is moving away from crowded Big Tech and AI trades into financials, industrials, and materials, reshaping liquidity conditions that often spill into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. For investors looking to position themselves ahead of 2026, these flows could offer critical clues about where risk appetite and liquidity may be headed.
Wall Street Sector Rotation Signals Potential Catalyst for Crypto Markets in 2026
Recent market data highlights the shift, with materials surging 4% last week, financials gaining 3%, and industrials climbing 1.5%. Meanwhile, communication services and technology are lagging.
Deutsche Bank noted tech’s first back-to-back weekly outflows since June, signaling fading AI euphoria.
In an interview with CNBC, Chris Toomey of Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management described this rotation as “meaningful.” He cited broadening opportunities outside the MAG-7 and tech-adjacent names as key drivers heading into 2026.
Why Crypto Traders Should Care
Historically, sector rotation in equities correlates with increased liquidity seeking alternative assets, often benefiting Bitcoin as a proxy for risk appetite.
The current “run-it-hot” macro narrative, driven by lower interest rates, stronger growth expectations, and seasonal liquidity around tax season, creates conditions favorable to crypto, even amid volatility in traditional markets.
Year-to-date, crypto underperformed relative to equities. Bitcoin has declined by roughly 8%, Ethereum by 12%, and Solana by 33%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 15% and 18%, respectively.
Despite this lag, analysts see potential for a sharp rebound in early 2026 as macro tailwinds align and investors reposition for the new year.
Five key drivers could support a Q1 2026 crypto rally:
End of Fed quantitative tightening: Reversing QT would restore liquidity, historically a catalyst for Bitcoin rallies.
Anticipated interest rate cuts: US rates may fall to 3–3.25%, improving conditions for growth and alternative assets.
Short-term liquidity injections: Treasury bill purchases and technical buying could bolster funding markets.
Political incentives for stability: Midterm elections incentivize policymakers to maintain supportive market conditions.
Labor market dynamics: Signs of job market slack could allow the Fed to remain dovish, sustaining liquidity flows.
The rotation is also changing the equity market’s risk profile. Investors are favoring lower-beta sectors such as healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary, while high-beta tech momentum trades cool.
Equity Moves Offer Clues for 2026 Crypto Volatility
Tesla’s recent move on autonomous robotaxi tests exemplifies short-term market swings that are captured in sector indexes but often spill into crypto via correlated risk flows.
According to Toomey, the broader takeaway is that trading decisions dominate short-term markets as year-end approaches. This creates range-bound conditions and increased volatility in crypto.
Investors who track equity flows may gain an edge, especially as Wall Street reallocates for 2026 and crypto markets preemptively respond.
Crypto analyst Alana Levin introduced a framework for crypto growth, using three compounding S-curves: asset creation, asset accumulation, and asset utilization.
This approach spans all macro conditions, stablecoins, exchanges, on-chain activity, and frontier markets, key factors for crypto adoption and price action as sector rotation continues through 2026.
For Bitcoin and altcoins, the last weeks of 2025 are not just a quiet holiday window. It is a critical preview of how liquidity, macro sentiment, and investor positioning could set the stage for a potentially historic start to 2026.
A combination of macro tailwinds and strategic rotations may drive significant upside across digital assets.
#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #AImodel