Fernando Pessoa

According to BlockBeats, data from Coingecko indicates that the total market capitalization of tokenized gold assets has exceeded $4.2 billion, marking a growth of approximately 147% over the past six months. Tether's XAUT and Paxos' PAXG are leading the market, with XAUT's market cap around $2.24 billion and PAXG's approximately $1.5 billion, together accounting for about 89% of the market share. Each XAUT and PAXG token is backed by a 1:1 reserve of physical gold.

Market data shows that spot gold has increased by about 1.1% within the day, currently priced at $4,326.5 per ounce. At the beginning of 2025, spot gold was valued at $2,624 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 65% increase over the year. Morgan Stanley recently analyzed that with ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts and a weakening U.S. dollar index, gold prices are projected to rise to $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.

“I am NOT building a new financial system. I built a casino.”This stark admission from Ken Chan, former co-founder of derivatives protocol Aevo, has been reverberating across Asian crypto communities this week.

What began as a post on X has now crossed linguistic borders, been introduced to Chinese communities by local news media, and been widely shared among Korean traders, accumulating millions of views along the way.

From Ayn Rand to Disillusionment: A Libertarian’s Journey Through Crypto

Chan’s confession is not merely a critique—it is the unraveling of a personal ideology. He describes himself as a “starry-eyed libertarian” who donated to Gary Johnson’s 2016 presidential campaign after being radicalized by Ayn Rand’s novels. The cypherpunk ethos of Bitcoin spoke directly to this worldview. “Being able to walk across the border with a billion dollars in your head is and always will be a powerful idea to me,” he writes.

Yet eight years of industry experience eroded that idealism. Chan recounts how the Layer 1 wars—the flood of capital into Aptos, Sui, Sei, ICP, and countless others—produced no meaningful progress toward a new financial system. Instead, it “literally torched everyone’s money” in pursuit of becoming the next Solana. His verdict is unsparing: “We do not need to build the Casino on Mars.”

According to his LinkedIn profile, Chan departed Aevo in May this year. His personal website indicates he is now working on KENSAT, a personal satellite project. It is scheduled to launch aboard a Falcon 9 in June 2026. His confession arrives six months after his departure. It comes as AEVO token trades at roughly $45 million in fully diluted market cap—down approximately 99% from its peak.

The “Casino” Metaphor Lands Amid Market Exhaustion

Chan’s central metaphor—that crypto has become “the biggest, online, multi-player 24/7 casino our generation has ever concocted”—cuts through technical complexity with visceral clarity.

The timing amplifies the message. Following October’s market turbulence and persistent volatility, participants across the region have been grappling with fatigue. The Chinese media framed the viral spread as reflecting “collective anxiety amid liquidity drought and narrative vacuum.”

Chinese-language responses have been divided. Some pushed back sharply: “Same eight years—some reach the summit, others exit the stage. Wasting time is your own problem.” Others went further than Chan himself, with one commenter writing: “The entire crypto circle is foolish, no exceptions. After more than a decade, what blockchain product has the average person actually used?”

Korean responses echoed similar exhaustion. “Besides stablecoins, there’s no real use case,” noted one trader. Another was more blunt: “At the bottom of crypto, there’s no one creating new value for society—just scammers swarming to suck money from retail investors.”

Generational Anxiety Finds a Voice Across Borders

Perhaps most striking is Chan’s warning that the industry’s “toxic mentality will lead to the long-term collapse of social mobility for the younger generation.” This concern resonates deeply in East Asian societies. Traditional paths to wealth—real estate, stable employment—have grown increasingly inaccessible. Crypto promised an alternative; Chan suggests it may be accelerating the problem.

Korean analyst KKD Whale offered a parallel reflection without directly addressing Chan’s post. “The era of standing alone with just one core skill is passing,” he wrote, recalling a talented colleague who could compress eight hours of work into one but never bothered to deepen his expertise. The skill became obsolete; the person moved on.

While Chan questions what the industry has built, KKD Whale questions what individuals have accumulated within it. Both arrive at the same unsettling destination.

Chan closes with a quote from CMS Holdings: “Do you want to make money, or do you want to be right?” His answer: “I choose to be right this time.”

Six months after leaving the project he built, and with AEVO trading at a fraction of its former value, the question lingers: Is this the clarity of hindsight, or the convenience of exit? The viral journey of his confession suggests many others are asking themselves the same question.

Ethereum price is up 6.7% in the past 24 hours and trades near $3,320. The move follows a breakout structure confirmed on December 3, which still points toward $3,710.

But mixed signals now suggest the climb may take longer.

Breakout Structure Holds as a Bullish Crossover Approaches

The Ethereum price continues to move within the same inverse head-and-shoulders breakout setup that formed in late November. The move stayed valid after December 3 because the right-shoulder support at $2,710 held. The structure weakens only if ETH drops under that level.

A key trigger now is the bullish crossover forming between the 20-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 50-period EMA. An EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, tracks price with extra weight on recent candles.

A bullish crossover usually hints that buyers are gaining strength and momentum may continue in the same direction. That trigger could push the ETH price higher, towards the projected target of $3,710.

Bullish Pattern With Looming Crossover: TradingView

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

But this crossover will form only if sellers do not step in. One on-chain metric shows why caution remains.

Rising Paper Profits Create a Profit-Taking Window

Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures the “paper profit” held by all ETH wallets. When NUPL rises, more holders have a reason to sell because they sit on larger unrealized gains.

ETH’s NUPL has now climbed to 0.296, pushing it into the Optimism–Anxiety zone. This is the highest reading since early November.

Paper Profits Rising Again: Glassnode

The last time NUPL reached a similar level — on December 3 — ETH fell about 5.2% within two days as holders booked profits.

A similar setup is visible now. Profitability is rising again while ETH sits near resistance. This increases the chance that some holders may sell before the bullish crossover finalizes. If that happens, the crossover may fail, and momentum could pause even though the breakout structure is still intact. That explains the longer wait time.

Key Ethereum Price Levels: What Opens the Path to $3,710 — and What Breaks It

If the bullish crossover completes and NUPL pressure stays limited, the Ethereum price has a clear upward path:

A 12-hour close above $3,390 is the first signal

The next resistance sits at $3,570

Clearing $3,570 unlocks the full move toward $3,710, the measured 20% projection from the breakout point.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

If selling grows instead, the structure weakens. ETH remains valid above $2,710, but a move under $2,610 invalidates the setup and points to a deeper pullback.

For now, ETH sits between two forces: a bullish crossover that could push toward $3,710, and rising paper profits that may delay the move. The next few sessions will decide which side leads.

XRP price has fallen almost 10% over the past month despite a slight 1.5% gain this week. The price remains locked inside a $2.31–$1.98 range, failing to secure any meaningful breakout. This tension reflects a split in market behavior: whales are selling into strength while key holder groups continue accumulating.

The push and pull between these two sides is keeping the XRP price inside a falling wedge that has yet to confirm a bullish reversal.

Whales Trim While Key Holder Groups Resist the Pressure

Whale activity shows a clear shift toward caution.

Wallets holding 100 million–1 billion XRP cut their balances from 8.32 billion to 8.27 billion, starting December 7. Another group holding 10–100 million XRP reduced its supply from 11.01 billion to 10.99 billion on December 8. Together, they offloaded about 70 million XRP over the past 48 hours, worth roughly $143 million at the current price.

XRP Whales Sell: Santiment

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The selling is not dramatic in token terms, but it arrives at a sensitive moment — exactly when XRP is trying to stabilize. This sell pressure helps explain why every breakout attempt has stalled before gaining momentum.

The counterforce comes from short- and mid-term holders, and this shows up clearly on HODL Waves. HODL Waves track how much XRP is held in each “coin age band,” showing how long tokens remain unmoved.

The one-to three-month group increased from 8.52% to 10.31%. The three-to six-month group rose from 9.40% to 10.87%.

Key Holders Keep Buying: Glassnode

These holders typically accumulate when they believe selling pressure is easing. Their buying into a 10% monthly decline suggests they expect the wedge structure to resolve to the upside eventually.

So XRP sits in a clear push-pull dynamic: whales selling on one side, active dip-buyers on the other.

That tension is holding the XRP price inside the same narrowing structure.

XRP Price Pattern Shows a Stalemate as Buyers and Sellers Pull in Opposite Directions

XRP is forming a falling wedge, a pattern that usually favors bullish reversals — but only if buyers can force a decisive breakout. Right now, the wedge is functioning more as a stalemate, with whale selling capping momentum and accumulating holders preventing deeper downside.

The breakout point sits near $2.46, where the descending trendline meets current price action. The XRP price needs a strong daily close above this level to confirm a reversal. If that happens, upside targets sit at $2.61, $2.83, and $3.11.

While price trades between $2.31 and $1.98, the wedge remains valid. A break below $1.98, however, weakens the pattern and exposes $1.82, a level that served as structural support earlier in the cycle.

XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, the outlook is simple: Whale selling delays the breakout. Mid-term accumulation keeps the structure alive. The wedge will not resolve until one side overwhelms the other.

Bitcoin price is up about 2.8% in the past 24 hours and trades near $92,500. The daily chart still shows a clean inverse head and shoulders structure pointing toward $108,500, but every attempt to break higher has stalled.

Two clear reasons explain why the breakout keeps failing — and the good news is that both can still shift in Bitcoin’s favor.

A Stubborn Level and Weak Whale Support Keep Blocking the Move

Bitcoin continues to respect the inverse head and shoulders pattern that formed on November 16. The structure stays valid, but the neckline at $93,700 has rejected every clean breakout attempt so far. Until the Bitcoin price closes above this line, the pattern cannot activate.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Structure: TradingView

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Whale positioning is the second issue.

Entities holding at least 1,000 BTC have been reducing their count since November 19. The metric fell to a monthly low of 1,303 on December 3 and remains close to that level now. This weakens every attempt to push through resistance because the group that normally confirms major breakouts is still cautious.

A similar setup appeared between December 2 and December 3.

Bitcoin price hit $93,400, but whales dropped from 1,316 to 1,303. Soon after, the price corrected to $89,300, a drop of about 4.4%.

Large Holders Still Distant: Glassnode

When the price rises and whales cut exposure, momentum often fades because big buyers are not supporting the move.

These two issues — the $93,700 barrier and hesitant whales — explain why the BTC price breakout keeps failing. But because neither problem is structural, both can still be fixed if conditions shift.

A Fixable Path: The Short Squeeze Setup Can Help Bitcoin Price Breakout

The second half of the story is more optimistic. Even without whale support, Bitcoin has a strong short squeeze setup that can still force a breakout.

On Binance, short liquidation leverage over the past 30 days sits near $3.66 billion, compared with $2.22 billion on the long side. Shorts are almost 50% higher, which creates pressure that can unwind quickly if Bitcoin price pushes above $93,700 again.

Short-Squeeze Setup Ready: Coinglass

This mechanism has already shown itself several times this month.

Small 1–2% price moves flipped into stronger rallies as short positions were liquidated.

If Bitcoin manages a clean daily close above $93,700, the squeeze can build enough strength to break through $94,600, the next major gateway. At that point, whales might no longer be required to trigger the move. Momentum alone could carry the price higher. And once the momentum arrives, whales might feel more convinced to join in.

Above $93,700 and $94,600, the breakout path opens toward $105,200. Clearing that region positions Bitcoin for the full measured target at $108,500, a gain of about 15.7% from the neckline.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

The inverse head and shoulders pattern remains valid above $83,800. A drop below $80,500 invalidates the structure and raises the risk of a deeper pullback if whales continue to reduce their balances.

For now, the picture fits like this: two reasons are blocking the breakout — the resistance line and whale caution —, and both are still fixable if buyers push through $93,700 or the short squeeze takes over.