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Advisory: Storm Watch Issued.
Two high-impact data fronts will collide, capable of shifting market winds in minutes.
Front #1: CPI Inflation
Hot Print → Fed hawkish winds strengthen → selling pressure across risk assets.
Cool Print → Dovish shift possible → rally conditions develop.
Front #2: Jobless Claims
Rising Claims → Signals economic cooling → rate-cut expectations grow.
Strong Claims → Fed remains firm → markets adjust swiftly, often downward.
Expected Impact Zones:
Equities, Treasuries, USD, Crypto — sharp directional moves.Increased likelihood of false breakouts & whipsaw price action.Liquidity-sensitive assets may lead the reaction.
Big Picture Implications:
This day will influence:
→ The timeline for rate cuts
→ The flow of global liquidity
→ The appetite for risk across all markets
Bottom Line:
Prepare for volatility. Have your levels watched and your alerts set.
Markets don’t wait—so neither should you.
Stay sharp. Trade aware.

#BTCVSGOLD #USJobsData #CPIWatch #CryptoRally #usmanleo03 $BTC
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The real source of anxiety is the prospect of consecutive future hikes, driven by Japan's entrenched and serious inflation.

The U.S. Influence on Japan’s Inflation
The chart illustrates the USD/JPY exchange rate using candlesticks, while the green line tracks Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting the relationship between currency movements and domestic inflation trends.

The U.S. Influence on Japan’s Inflation
The chart illustrates the USD/JPY exchange rate using candlesticks, while the green line tracks Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting the relationship between currency movements and domestic inflation trends.

This correlation is fairly straightforward.
A significant portion of Japan's inflation can be traced back to prior U.S. interest rate hikes. However, with the U.S. having executed three consecutive rate cuts between September and December 2025, this external pressure is receding. Consequently, Japan's CPI is likely to see a measurable decline as a result.
It's important to note that Japan's domestic economy is also a factor, experiencing steady, real growth since 2020 when measured in constant dollars—though this expansion has been moderate, not exaggerated.

Moreover, Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates to 0.75% on December 19. This is a relatively high interest rate, the highest in Japan in nearly 30 years.

The relationship outlined here is significant. Japan's inflation has been substantially driven by external pressure from prior U.S. rate hikes. Now, with the U.S. having cut rates three consecutive times (Sep-Dec 2025), that external pressure is easing. As a result, Japan's CPI is highly likely to decline in the near term.
The exact extent of the decline remains to be seen, but during this observation period, it is theoretically unlikely that Japan will engage in consecutive rate hikes.
The Pace of Japan's Tightening Cycle Has Been Deliberate
Reviewing the current hiking timeline reveals a measured approach:
Mar 2024: Rate lifted from -0.1% to ~0%Jan 2025: Rate increased from ~0% to 0.5%Dec 2025 (Expected): Rate anticipated to rise from 0.5% to 0.75*
The interval between hikes has been notably long—approximately 10-11 months. This pattern suggests that even if further hikes are planned, the next one is unlikely to occur for several months.
Market Context: Limited Safe-Haven Demand for the Yen
The yen and U.S. Treasuries are both safe-haven assets. During systemic U.S. crises (e.g., 2008, 2020), demand for the yen surges. However, the current environment features U.S. recession expectations without an immediate explosive crisis. This explains the relatively low 2-year Treasury yield alongside a 10-year yield persistently above 4%. In such a climate, broad, strong demand for the yen is less probable.
Conclusion: A Transitory Impact
The immediate market reaction to Japan's hike may be sentiment-driven and volatile. It is also possible that expectations for the December 19th move are already priced in, though some negative impact on the day remains possible.
Crucially, the probability is high that Japan will not raise rates again for the next several months. By that time, the U.S. may be positioned for further cuts (particularly under expected Fed leadership changes), which would further assist in subduing Japan's inflation.

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STOP EVERYTHING AND FOCUS HERE NOW.
LOOK AT $PTB / #aPTB IMMEDIATELY.
Just as highlighted yesterday — $PTB Expansion Phase is now CONFIRMED.
Key Setup:
Clean V-Reversal completed.Followed by a strong 4H impulse candle.Momentum is fully BULLISH as long as price holds above the breakout zone.
ENTRY ZONE: 0.0045 – 0.0049
STOP-LOSS: 0.0040
TAKE PROFIT LEVELS:
TP1: 0.0056
TP2: 0.0063
TP3: 0.0075
⚠️ This is a HIGH MOMENTUM PLAY.
Secure partials early and trail AGGRESSIVELY once TP1 is hit.
EYES ON $PTB.
$PTB

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Bias: Speculative Long (base breakout attempt)
Entry (Buy): 0.280 – 0.285

Stop-Loss: 0.262 (below base / recent higher low)
Targets:
TP1: 0.310TP2: 0.345TP3: 0.400 (mean reversion toward MA50 zone)
Risk–Reward:
TP1 ≈ 1:1.2TP2 ≈ 1:2.4TP3 ≈ 1:4.0+
Setup Logic:
Prolonged downtrend transitioned into a tight base → selling pressure exhaustedPrice holding above recent swing low (≈0.27) → higher-low structure formingVolume expansion on green candles → early accumulation signalLarge gap to MA(50)/(99) → upside vacuum if breakout sustainsEstimated Win Probability: ~55–60% (early reversal, higher risk but favorable R:R)
Invalidation: Daily close below 0.262$SOMI

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Bias: Short (trend continuation)
Entry (Sell): 3,100 – 3,130

Stop-Loss: 3,260 (above MA50 + recent lower high)
Targets:
TP1: 2,980TP2: 2,850TP3: 2,620 (major swing low zone)
Risk–Reward:
TP1 ≈ 1:1.1TP2 ≈ 1:2.1TP3 ≈ 1:3.8
Setup Logic:
Price below falling MA(50) & MA(99) → bearish market structureSeries of lower highs → descending channel / bear flagWeak bounce with declining volume → corrective move, not reversal

Estimated Win Probability: ~58–63% (trend + MA resistance confluence)
Invalidation: Daily close above 3,260.
#ETH
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Bias: Short (trend continuation)
Entry (Sell): 90,300 – 90,500

Stop-Loss: 92,000 (above MA cluster / recent lower high)

Targets:
TP1: 88,500TP2: 86,000TP3: 80,600 (range low)
Risk–Reward:
TP1 ≈ 1:1.2TP2 ≈ 1:2.4TP3 ≈ 1:4.5Setup Logic:Price below declining MA(50) & MA(99) → bearish structureLower highs + weak bounce → bear flag / distributionVolume fading on rebounds → sellers in controlEstimated Win Probability: ~60–65% (trend + MA resistance aligned)
Invalidation: Daily close above 92,000.

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TIMEFRAME: 1D

ENTRY: ~0.070 (market / shallow pullback)
STOP-LOSS:
0.0615 (below reclaimed base & higher-low zone)

TARGETS.
TP1: 0.078TP2: 0.086TP3: 0.095
RISK–REWARD:
Risk ≈ 0.0085Reward:TP1 ≈ 1 : 0.9TP2 ≈ 1 : 1.9TP3 ≈ 1 : 3.0SETUP LOGIC (PRICE ACTION):Rounded bottom / base breakout from 0.048–0.055 accumulation zone.Strong bullish impulse candle with volume expansion, indicating trend reversal attempt.Price reclaimed MA(7) & MA(25); now pushing toward MA(99) resistance.Structure favors continuation if price holds above 0.065–0.067.
INDICATOR SNAPSHOT:
Momentum flipped bullish.Volume confirms demand.Overhead resistance is clear but tradable.
PROBABILITY ESTIMATED
TP1~62%TP2~45TP3~30%

INVALIDATION:
Daily close below 0.0615 cancels the setup.

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Trade Signal: SAPIEN/USDT
Current Price: 0.1597Direction: Bullish ContinuationPattern: Bullish Breakout from a potential Symmetrical Triangle (or consolidation range) on the daily (1D) chart, following a strong +13.26% candle.Key Level: Break above MA(7) at 0.1584.
Levels & Risk-Reward
Entry Zone: 0.1585 - 0.1605Stop-Loss (SL): 0.1490Placed below the previous day's low (0.1361) and the MA(25) support at 0.1426, allowing for normal volatility.Target 1 (T1): 0.1735 (Previous High)Target 2 (T2): 0.1900Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:3Risk (Entry to SL): ~0.0105Reward to T2 (Entry to T2): ~0.0315

#SAPİEN #FOMO #WriteToEarnUpgrade #CryptoRally #usmanleo03 $SAPIEN

QUICK SIGNAL (LEVELS ONLY)

• Entry: 1.10 (current breakout)

• Stop-Loss: 0.865 (below prior resistance + below MA cluster)

• TP1: 1.20

• TP2: 1.32

• TP3: 1.42

• Risk-to-Reward:

– To TP1: ~1:1.3

– To TP2: ~1:2.2

– To TP3: ~1:3.3

Trade Setup Logic
• Pattern: Clear bullish breakout from multi-week consolidation, accompanied by a strong expansion candle.

• Price Action:
– Price reclaimed and closed above the 0.85–0.90 resistance zone.
– Large green candle with strong body-to-wick ratio confirms momentum.
– Moving averages (MA7/MA25) turning upward and price lifting above them.

• Volume: Volume spike supports the validity of the breakout.
Probability Estimate (Based on Indicators & Structure)
• Strong breakout + volume + trend shift: ≈ 60–65% probability of hitting at least TP1.
• Sustained momentum beyond TP1: ≈ 40–45% probability of reaching TP2/TP3.

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