We start the week with constructive news: Bitcoin perfectly worked out FVG on the hourly and formed a clear working range of $65,000 – $72,000. The structure is there, but it's too early to rejoice — liquidity is anemic, and there is no big buyer 'Buy All' in sight.
Macro background presses: Threat of a shutdown in the USA. Geopolitics. The key is Friday: decision on Trump's tariffs + Core PCE + GDP
3 main scenarios for BTC:
A. Manipulating highs (Buy to Sell)
Classic setup: driving the crowd into longs → piercing the previous week's high → sharp reversal down. The most dangerous — saw with fake stop runs both ways.
B. Diving deep (bearish market favorite)
Breakout $60k → test $48–50k. Painful, but real. Prepare mentally and technically — do not catch falling knives.
C. Fuel for takeoff (my working scenario)
Liquidity gathering from below → impulse to $75k+. Reminds of the move from $85k → $98k. The key is that the update to high is genuine, not a final gathering before a global reversal.
Ethereum — in the shadow of BTC
No wonder: ETH did not break $2200 and looks weak. Bitcoin dominance is rising → altcoins are on the defensive.
A: False sweep pWH → back under the level
B: Filling FVG + updating lows (most likely now)
C: Impulsive breakdown $2200+ (least likely)
Week calendar — all the salt is on Friday
Mon 16.02 — Presidents' Day in the USA → banks closed, thin market, possible anomalies.
Wed 18.02 — Durable Goods / Housing Starts (important for inflation expectations)
Thu 19.02 — Jobless Claims + Philly Fed
Fri 20.02 — Day X: Core PCE + GDP + possible Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs.
💬 We work carefully, keep stops tight, do not succumb to euphoria. What do you think? What scenario will play out? Write in the comments 👇 Long or short until Friday?
