The trading volume of cryptocurrency bets on the Polymarket prediction market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by 2027?' exceeded $25 million. Traders are placing bets with three expiration dates for the prediction - by March 31, by June 30, and by December 31.

As of the end of March, Polymarket users assess the chances of a change in power in Iran at 20%, with a betting volume of $13.7 million. The probability by the end of June is 42%, with $5 million in these bets. By the end of the year, participants believe the chances are higher - 51%, with a volume of $7 million in this prediction.

Forecasts are open for other events related to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Bets on a ceasefire between the USA and Iran have already collected $4.8 million. As of today, March 2, the probability of such an event is estimated at 1%, on March 6 - at 8%, by the end of the month - at 44%, and by May - at 66%.

$4.7 million has been bet on the forecast "Will Iran close the Hormuz Strait?" Participants believe there is a 38% chance this will happen by the end of March. By June 30, the chances are higher - 50%, and 53% - by the end of the year.

Participants of Polymarket are also betting on the possible resignation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The volume of bets in the pool "Will Netanyahu resign by the end of 2026?" is $400,000, with users estimating the chances at 41%.

Polymarket's competitor, the Kalshi platform, accepted bets on the resignation of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. After his death, the platform closed these forecasts, promising to compensate users for losses related to the closure of this market. The head of the service, Tarek Mansour, stated that profiting from a person's death is unacceptable, and the forecast implied a change of leadership in the country through resignation or transfer of power.

Similar markets exist on Polymarket, with different closing dates. The site indicates that they are closed with the outcome "yes," but are in the status of "disputed."

In mid-February, it became known that several people were arrested in Israel during an investigation into the use of military information for betting on Polymarket. According to the investigation, players were betting on the timing of military operations based on secret information they had access to during their service.

#WorldNews2026 #MarketTurbulence

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