Since mid-2025, Bitcoin has shown signs of decoupling from the global increase in M2 money supply. By 2026, this trend becomes even more evident.

Historically, the correlation between these two factors served as the foundation for many bullish forecasts. Now, analysts are strongly divided in their interpretation of this phenomenon going into 2026.

Analysts are divided on the relationship between Bitcoin and global M2.

Fidelity Digital Assets' January report still believes in the positive correlation between M2 supply and Bitcoin price.

Fidelity emphasizes that Bitcoin rallies typically coincide with acceleration in M2 growth. Due to its scarcity, BTC absorbs excess capital more strongly than other assets. In the Fidelity report, we read:

"Since a new global monetary tightening cycle has begun, and the Fed has ended its QT program, it is likely that the upward trend will continue in 2026. This is a positive catalyst for Bitcoin's price."

Analysts supporting this view argue that gold and silver have recently absorbed demand for inflation protection. They also claim that new money printing in many countries strongly drives Bitcoin.

Analyst MartyParty goes one step further. Compares Bitcoin's price to the 50-day lagged M2 supply. Predicts this week could be a turning point, as Bitcoin's price may rebound and catch up with money supply growth. The analyst predicted:

"Bitcoin vs. global liquidity – 50-day lag. M2 signals a price rebound right here — January 12th."

However, the chart from the Fidelity report shows that Bitcoin's annual growth and global annual M2 have lost their correlation over the past 12 months. The divergence has further increased at the beginning of 2026. BTC is recording negative year-on-year growth, while global annual M2 is growing by over 10%. This situation raises skepticism among other analysts.

Bitcoin and M2-related observations

In this context, Mister Crypto's observations show that periods when Bitcoin's price diverges from M2 growth usually mark market peaks. Following these, bear markets lasting two to four years often occur.

Meanwhile, analyst Charles Edwards explains this phenomenon entirely differently. He claims that 2025 was the moment when the threat of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin's security became real. The divergence from M2 reflects these risks. Edwards explained:

"This is the first time Bitcoin has diverged from money supply and global liquidity flows. Why? In 2025, Bitcoin entered the Quantum Event Horizon for the first time. The period during which there is a non-zero probability of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin's cryptography is now shorter than the time needed to upgrade Bitcoin. Capital is positioning itself to account for this risk."

In summary, the split among analysts reveals the growing complexity of the Bitcoin market. The bull side relies on traditional historical models supported by Fed rate cuts and money printing. The bear side focuses on unprecedented technological risks.

Meanwhile, the king of cryptocurrencies is entering 2026 with additional risks. These include risks related to yen carry trade and the possibility of a third world war, as global economic and geopolitical conditions grow increasingly difficult.

These risks do not necessarily mean the end of Bitcoin. They may also create opportunities for many investors. These investors still believe that regardless of global changes, BTC will remain a long-term store of value, as demonstrated by over 15 years of its history.

To review the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.