onchainanalysis

Săptămânile finale ale anului sunt, de obicei, o perioadă de expunere redusă pe piața criptomonedelor. Deținătorii mari și așa-numita „bani inteligenți” își reduc adesea pozițiile în decembrie pentru a bloca profiturile, a strânge lichidități și a aștepta să treacă mediul cu lichiditate scăzută. Acest model sezonier este bine stabilit și duce frecvent la o acțiune de preț mai puțin volatilă pe întreaga piață.
Cu toate acestea, sub suprafață, datele on-chain sugerează o narațiune diferită pentru anumite active. În timp ce participarea generală scade, balenele cripto își cresc activ deținerile în mai multe token-uri — dar pe orizonturi temporale diferite. Unele active arată o acumulare constantă în ultimele 30 de zile, altele înregistrează influxuri puternice în ultima săptămână, iar un token a atras un nou interes din partea balenelor în ultimele 24 de ore. Aceste modele divergente de acumulare pot oferi indicii despre locul în care se formează poziționarea pe termen lung înainte de începutul anului 2026.

Bitcoin’s price behavior throughout 2024–2025 reveals a growing divergence between an increasingly resilient on-chain structure and persistently restrictive global macroeconomic conditions. While internal crypto liquidity and supply-side dynamics supported Bitcoin’s rally in 2024, external forces—particularly elevated real yields and continued balance sheet contraction by the U.S. Federal Reserve—have imposed clear valuation constraints as the cycle matured.
This divergence marks a meaningful evolution from prior Bitcoin cycles, where on-chain strength and macro liquidity often moved in the same direction.
On-Chain Strength Fueled Bitcoin’s 2024 Rally
Bitcoin began 2024 trading near $42,000 and steadily advanced throughout the year, eventually surpassing the $100,000 level in Q4. This rally was not purely speculative; it was underpinned by a significant improvement in on-chain liquidity conditions.
Monthly inflows of ERC-20 stablecoins into centralized exchanges averaged between $38 billion and $45 billion, signaling deep pools of deployable capital ready to enter the crypto market. Interestingly, correlation analysis revealed a negative relationship (-0.32) between stablecoin inflows and Bitcoin net exchange flows. In other words, as liquidity entered exchanges, Bitcoin itself tended to be withdrawn.
This behavior points to accumulation rather than distribution, reinforcing the sustainability of the 2024 uptrend. It also aligns with the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which encouraged longer-term institutional positioning rather than short-term speculative turnover.
Valuation metrics further supported this constructive backdrop. Bitcoin’s 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio rose from approximately 1.8 at the start of the year to around 2.2 by year-end. On longer timeframes, this suggested a market supported by solid structural demand rather than overheating excess.
Crucially, this allowed Bitcoin to extend higher without triggering widespread forced selling or aggressive profit-taking typically associated with late-stage speculative cycles.
Macro Tightening: The Invisible Ceiling in 2024
Despite strong on-chain fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions moved in the opposite direction. Throughout 2024, U.S. 10-year real yields remained firmly positive, averaging between 1.7% and 1.9%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continued quantitative tightening, reducing its balance sheet from $7.6 trillion to approximately $6.8 trillion by year-end.
This $800 billion liquidity withdrawal increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. Yet, internal crypto liquidity proved strong enough to offset these headwinds, enabling Bitcoin to deliver a 121% annual gain in 2024.
This marked a notable departure from earlier cycles, where strong Bitcoin rallies were typically accompanied by falling real yields and expanding central bank balance sheets.
Macro Constraints Become Dominant in 2025
Entering 2025, the balance shifted. After establishing a cycle high, Bitcoin entered a phase of heightened volatility, with price fluctuating sharply between $126,000 and $75,000, even as on-chain structure remained broadly intact.
Stablecoin inflows into exchanges peaked in late 2024 and early 2025 before declining by roughly 50%, indicating a contraction in marginal buying power. Net exchange flows turned mixed and lacked the persistence needed to sustain extended rallies, suggesting that supply was gradually being distributed back into the market.
Valuation behavior reflected this transition. The 365-day MVRV average stabilized within a narrow 1.8–2.2 range throughout 2025—well above bear market levels, yet unable to expand further.
Statistical analysis of the 2024–2025 period shows that stablecoin inflows and exchange net flows explained less than 6% of MVRV variance, implying that on-chain capital flows were no longer the dominant drivers of valuation. Instead, macro variables increasingly set the ceiling.
Indeed, macro conditions remained restrictive. U.S. real yields averaged 1.6% to 2.1% during 2025, while the Fed’s balance sheet contracted further to approximately $6.5 trillion, removing an additional $300 billion in system liquidity.
Unlike earlier Bitcoin bull markets, which coincided with easing financial conditions, the 2025 environment continued to exert structural pressure.
What This Means for Bitcoin’s Outlook
The 2024–2025 data suggests Bitcoin has entered a regime where on-chain metrics define market structure, but macro variables determine valuation limits.
Declining exchange balances and stablecoin dynamics have helped cushion downside risk, preventing deeper drawdowns. However, a new phase of sustained price discovery is unlikely without a meaningful shift in financial conditions.
For investors and analysts, the implication is clear: relying solely on long-term on-chain indicators—without incorporating macroeconomic context—leads to incomplete conclusions.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin’s next major upside impulse is more likely to be triggered by falling real yields or renewed global liquidity expansion, rather than exchange flows alone.
Understanding Bitcoin now requires a dual lens: on-chain structure and macro reality.
Follow for deeper analysis on crypto market structure, on-chain data, and global liquidity trends.
👉 Follow for professional crypto market insights
#BTC #OnChainAnalysis