Oil prices are rising, but BTC hasn't yet received the script for 'safe-haven asset'.
What I care about more is not how long the White House has postponed the deadline related to Iran, but that the market is already synchronously trading two things: oil prices are surging, and long-term yields are also rising. This combination resembles 'inflation disturbances + risk appetite retreat', which is not inherently favorable for BTC.
Objectively, there are a few points worth watching in the past 24 hours:
- Reuters reported that concerns over the Middle East conflict persist, with Brent once rising above $110, and WTI also clearly moving higher;
- In the same market review, U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, and funds have not significantly returned to high beta risk assets;
- On the charts, BTC 1h / 4h / 1d still shows bearish resonance, indicating that after macro noise came in, buying pressure did not immediately convert it into 'digital gold'.
Why am I not chasing it first?
First, from a funding perspective, if the oil price shock continues to transmit into inflation expectations, rising long bond yields will first compress the valuations of risk assets;
Second, from a technical perspective, BTC now resembles weak defense more than a trend reversal. The 1h chart still shows a clear downward structure, the 4h has not reclaimed EMA20, and the 1d is also not yet strong. Short-term movements do not represent mid-term confirmations.
But counterarguments must be made:
If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, and the market begins to reconsider BTC as a 'non-sovereign safe-haven alternative', then it may not always follow U.S. stock risk appetite. Additionally, the 1h RSI is already very low, and a technical rebound could occur at any time.
Therefore, I won't treat this wave as a safe-haven trade; I'll only consider it a stress test.
If BTC can first regain above 67.5k, and then see if it can recover around 68.8k, I will adjust my view from 'defensive' to 'restorative';
If it continues to fall below 65.7k, it indicates that the market is still trading macro pressures, not trading safe-haven premiums.
This is not a confirmation of a reversal; it resembles a pricing test under geopolitical shock. Before the larger scale stabilizes, I prefer to wait for confirmation and not rush to tell a story for the market.
$BTC
What I care about more is not how long the White House has postponed the deadline related to Iran, but that the market is already synchronously trading two things: oil prices are surging, and long-term yields are also rising. This combination resembles 'inflation disturbances + risk appetite retreat', which is not inherently favorable for BTC.
Objectively, there are a few points worth watching in the past 24 hours:
- Reuters reported that concerns over the Middle East conflict persist, with Brent once rising above $110, and WTI also clearly moving higher;
- In the same market review, U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, and funds have not significantly returned to high beta risk assets;
- On the charts, BTC 1h / 4h / 1d still shows bearish resonance, indicating that after macro noise came in, buying pressure did not immediately convert it into 'digital gold'.
Why am I not chasing it first?
First, from a funding perspective, if the oil price shock continues to transmit into inflation expectations, rising long bond yields will first compress the valuations of risk assets;
Second, from a technical perspective, BTC now resembles weak defense more than a trend reversal. The 1h chart still shows a clear downward structure, the 4h has not reclaimed EMA20, and the 1d is also not yet strong. Short-term movements do not represent mid-term confirmations.
But counterarguments must be made:
If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, and the market begins to reconsider BTC as a 'non-sovereign safe-haven alternative', then it may not always follow U.S. stock risk appetite. Additionally, the 1h RSI is already very low, and a technical rebound could occur at any time.
Therefore, I won't treat this wave as a safe-haven trade; I'll only consider it a stress test.
If BTC can first regain above 67.5k, and then see if it can recover around 68.8k, I will adjust my view from 'defensive' to 'restorative';
If it continues to fall below 65.7k, it indicates that the market is still trading macro pressures, not trading safe-haven premiums.
This is not a confirmation of a reversal; it resembles a pricing test under geopolitical shock. Before the larger scale stabilizes, I prefer to wait for confirmation and not rush to tell a story for the market.
$BTC