๐ Current situation
- $BTC trading around $78,500โ$79,000, +1.3% in 24h, testing resistance at $80k for the 4th time this month.
- Volume stable, ETF inflows back in the green โ real money is supporting.
- Hot news: Strong tech earnings + the Senate Clarity Act boosts risk-on sentiment, but on-chain data shows that most of the April rally came from leverage.
๐ Technical analysis (pullback style)
- Daily RSI ~54 (not overbought yet), MACD histogram narrowing โ momentum remains bullish but not strong.
- MA50 (4h) is acting as dynamic support at ~$77,800. Price retesting MA50 + green candlestick = solid long signal.
- Key level: Resistance at $80k (liquidity pool), Support at $76,500 (near 200-day EMA).
๐ I'm following a pullback trading setup.
- Entry long: Price pullback touching $77,800โ$78,000 + RSI > 50 + increasing volume.
- SL: $76,800 (below MA50, risk ~1%).
- TP1: $80,000 (RR 1:2)
- TP2: $82,000โ$85k (RR 1:3+) if we break $80k with volume.
โ Checklist before entering a trade
- Confirmation that the pullback is complete (no break of support).
- RSI isn't dropping below 45.
- Volume over 4 hours should increase by at least 20% compared to the average.
- Avoid trading against Fed news or macro shocks.
โ ๏ธ Risk & opportunity
- Opportunity: Break $80k โ target $85k quickly within 1โ2 weeks (probability ~65%).
- Risk: If we lose $76,500 โ testing $74kโ$72k (leverage unwind).
In summary: BTC is in a medium-term uptrend, I'm prioritizing a long pullback at the $78k zone instead of chasing the price. No FOMO, waiting for clear indicator confirmation is key to survival.
Are you holding BTC or waiting for a pullback entry? Comment the level you're interested in and I'll analyze it further! ๐
