GEMINI

Options activity suggests the 100K area is being respected as a ceiling rather than a launch point. Call selling continues to dominate at this strike, with the sell buy premium gap widening even as price attempts to rebound. This reflects a lack of confidence in a clean reclaim of 100K. As price approaches this zone, resistance appears to build. Implied volatility eases on upward pushes and re-expands on pullbacks, reinforcing a mean reverting structure instead of a breakout setup.

Market positioning shows little anticipation of an #FOMC‬⁩ driven expansion. Upside is being sold into strength rather than accumulated. The recovery looks fragile and reactive, not supported by strong directional conviction to challenge 100K.

Over the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw 77,625 liquidations with total losses adding up to $138.36 million. The biggest hit came from #Binance where a single #ETHUSDT position worth $9.01 million was liquidated.

Metaplanet has added 4,279 BTC to its balance sheet in a deal worth roughly $375 million. With this purchase, the company’s total #bitcoin holdings have climbed to 35,102 BTC, valued at nearly $3 billion.

This steady accumulation signals strong conviction in #Bitcoin’s long term value and positions Metaplanet as one of the most aggressive corporate #BTC holders in Asia.

The market is entering a critical decision phase as supply within the Profit GAP continues to shrink, now sitting around 28,000 #BTC per day. This tightening sets up a potential two month window where a bullish cross could develop. However, the structure remains unstable. As long as price holds above $75,000, the bullish scenario stays alive, with a strong chance of confirmation by March as buyers continue to absorb sell pressure.

If price slips below $70,000, the outlook shifts sharply. Such a move would point toward a deeper reset, similar to the 2022 cycle, where recovery was slow and required extended time to rebuild confidence. The coming weeks will be decisive, as this range will determine whether the market pushes higher or enters a prolonged correction.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

În ultimele 24 de ore, piața cripto a văzut o turbulență puternică, deoarece 99.057 de comercianți au fost lichidați, ducând lichidările totale la 302,02 milioane de dolari. Lovitura cea mai mare a venit dintr-o singură #BTCUSD poziție pe Hyperliquid, unde un comerciant a fost lichidat pentru 5,23 milioane de dolari.

După ajustarea pentru ieșirile distorsionate #coinbase , datele arată că deținătorii pe termen lung nu mai sunt într-o distribuție masivă. Oferta LTH, care a fost în scădere din 16 iulie, a devenit recent pozitivă, cu aproximativ 10,700 #BTC mutându-se în deținerea pe termen lung.

Presiunea de vânzare LTH s-a diminuat, în timp ce deținătorii pe termen scurt aleg, de asemenea, să păstreze decât să vândă. Deși schimbarea este încă modestă, schimbări similare în trecut au marcat adesea etapele timpurii ale consolidării sau recuperărilor optimiste, în funcție de modul în care se dezvoltă piața mai largă.

During December’s fear filled market phase, traders added around $2.4 billion in leverage even as overall activity dropped nearly 40 percent, while whales quietly withdrew close to 20,000 #Bitcoin from exchanges, signaling caution from large holders. As professional and institutional money reduced exposure and stepped aside, retail traders moved in the opposite direction, increasing leverage in hopes of catching short term reversals.

This imbalance between declining participation, rising leverage and smart money exiting created a fragile market structure, where volatility increased and downside risk remained high before any meaningful recovery could take shape.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Sentimentul pieței s-a întors clar bearish pe baza datelor media, activității X și altor indicatori de sentiment. Istoric vorbind, atunci când se formează un consens puternic, piața se mișcă adesea împotriva majorității, așa cum s-a văzut în mijlocul anului 2024 și la începutul anului 2025.

Deoarece această schimbare a început la începutul lunii noiembrie, nu este nevoie să ne grăbim, dar ar putea fi deja prea târziu pentru a deveni bearish. Chiar dacă indicatorul este ușor bullish, a rămâne precaut și răbdător este cheia într-o piață bearish mai largă.

În ciuda menținerii prețului ferm deasupra Mediei Adevărate de Piață aproape de 81.000 USD, volumul pierderilor realizate rămâne ridicat. După filtrarea transferurilor interne și aplicarea unei SMA de 90 de zile, pierderile continuă să medieze în jur de 300 de milioane de dolari pe zi. Aceasta sugerează că o parte din cumpărătorii cu intrări mai mari continuă să capituleze, fiind mai influențați de expunerea prelungită în timp decât de o scădere suplimentară a prețului.

#Bitcoin is currently trading around $87.8K, and on chain data reflects a market in balance. Short term holders are under pressure with a cost basis near $99.9K, while price sits right at the Active Investor Mean around $87.7K, showing indecision in the short term.

On the broader side, the True Market Mean at $81.1K continues to hold as a key support, and the Realized Price at $56.2K confirms long term holders remain comfortably in profit. Overall, this points to consolidation rather than a deeper correction as long as major support levels are respected.

O corecție mai profundă începe să se formeze în $MSTR, asemănându-se cu o scădere tipică a pieței de urs. Deși perspectiva pe termen scurt poate rămâne volatilă, aceste faze creează adesea oportunități puternice de acumulare în timp. Dacă prețul continuă să se răcească și găsește o bază, acesta ar putea deveni un punct de intrare atractiv pentru investitorii pe termen lung.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Market volatility has cooled noticeably after last week’s spike with implied volatility resetting lower as price action struggled to hold above the $92K resistance area. Volatility declined across all maturities with short dated contracts falling from 57% to 48%, mid tenor dropping from 52% to 45% and longer dated easing from 49% to 47%, reflecting reduced demand for downside protection.

This broad compression suggests traders are now pricing in a lower risk of sharp moves and expecting a calmer trading environment. Compared to the caution seen last week, positioning has shifted toward a more neutral outlook, as participants remain patient and wait for a clearer directional catalyst.

#BTC continues to trade within a consolidation range between $85k and $92k. The $85k level remains a key support zone, while $92k is acting as a supply area where some investors are taking profits. The sharp move around $84,500 should not be overanalyzed, as it was largely driven by a large BTC transfer from #Binance rather than organic market selling.

At current prices, roughly 65% of BTC holders are still in profit, which is relatively low for a typical bull market phase and suggests the market is still consolidating rather than approaching a major top.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

📊 RWA was the most profitable narrative in 2025 with ~186% average gains, followed by L1s and Made in USA, per Coingecko.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Still Extreme Fear 👀