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Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) now holds 671,268 BTC, acquired for roughly $50B, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world. • Average buy price: ~$75,000 per BTC • Latest purchase: **10,600 BTC ($980M)** — bought during market weakness • Strategy: Long-term accumulation, not trading • Funding: Primarily through equity and preferred share issuance, not short-term leverage
Why this matters • Shows strong institutional conviction despite volatility • Large-scale buying during corrections often signals long-term confidence • Reduces circulating supply, tightening market liquidity over time
🎯 Bottom line: This isn’t speculation — it’s a multi-year treasury strategy betting on Bitcoin as a long-term store of value. Moves like this usually matter more than short-term price noise.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a bearish flag, typically a continuation pattern after a strong downside move.
Structure Breakdown • Flagpole: The sharp rejection from the recent highs initiated strong bearish momentum. • Flag (Consolidation): Price is moving in a tight, slightly upward/sideways channel with declining volume, which usually signals distribution rather than accumulation.
Key Support & Resistance Levels • Immediate Resistance (Flag High): $93,000 – $95,000 A daily close above this zone would invalidate the bearish flag and shift market structure. • Mid Resistance: $91,500 – $92,500 Repeated rejections from this area keep price capped and confirm sellers’ presence. • Immediate Support (Flag Low): $86,000 – $87,500 A daily close below this range would confirm the breakdown and continuation lower. • Major Support (Measured Move / Demand Zone): $82,000 – $84,000 This zone aligns with prior demand and the projected bearish flag target. • Extreme Support: $78,000 – $80,000 If momentum accelerates and fear expands, this becomes the next high-probability liquidity area.
Momentum & Volume Context • RSI: Still weak, no meaningful bullish divergence on the daily. • Volume: Falling during consolidation — a classic bearish flag trait. A valid breakdown should come with volume expansion.
Trading Perspective • No anticipation, no forced trades. • Shorts only after a daily close below $86K–$87.5K, with clear invalidation above the flag high. • If price reclaims $93K+ with strength, step aside — bias must change.
Conclusion
As long as BTC remains below key resistance, the risk favors bearish continuation. This is a setup, not a signal — wait for confirmation.
Unlike BTC, every major ETH dump is an opportunity for spot accumulation, not panic. Historically, ETH rewards medium-to-long-term conviction, especially when sentiment is weak and fear dominates.
Yes, ETH can fall further. Yes, drawdowns can be deep. Even brutal.
But that doesn’t change the plan: calm accumulation, no leverage, no rush, building a long-term position. Time has always favored patience with ETH.
From a trading perspective, nothing changes: No guessing. No anticipation. We respect levels, wait for confirmation, and trade only where risk is clearly defined.
Macro ≠ Trading. Confusing the two is the biggest mistake.
ETH also rarely moves when people expect it to. It usually lags, frustrates, and looks weak while attention is elsewhere. That’s often when positions are built.
Historically: Capital flows to BTC first. ETH underperforms and compresses. Then, when BTC cools, ETH accelerates—fast and decisively.
Low volume, slow dump, and no real momentum across alts. Lower participation and lackluster breadth are making the tape feel lifeless.
This kind of environment rewards patience, not activity. Forcing trades now usually leads to small losses that add up over time and erode capital. The market is telling us not to rush—it’s not giving clear direction or conviction for high-probability setups.
We’re staying selective and disciplined, waiting for real strength to show itself. When volume returns, confirmed breakouts occur, and momentum builds, that’s when the setups may be worth taking.
Until then—discipline first; capital preservation is the priority. Stay Safe !!!
📉 Price Action & Market Flow • Bitcoin has slipped back toward ~$90,000 after losing upside momentum, pressured by risk-off sentiment and broader tech weakness. BTC was recently down modestly on low volume.  • Ether and most major altcoins are tracking lower or consolidating as broader participation remains thin. 
📊 Fear & Greed Sentiment • Sentiment remains in fear / extreme fear territory — most index trackers show readings in the low-20s to mid-20s, signaling widespread caution and risk-off positioning in the market.  • This aligns with weak participation and muted momentum — making breakout moves less reliable until sentiment stabilizes. 
🏛️ Broader Market & Institutional Context • Despite the recent price slump, some institutional players remain active — e.g., Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to hold a significant BTC position and remains in the Nasdaq 100, underscoring long-term accumulation narratives.  • Broader macro conditions (tech sector softness, cautious equities) are weighing on risk assets including crypto. 
🚨 First-Ever Death Cross on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF ($IBIT)
BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF $IBIT has printed its first-ever death cross, where the 50-day MA drops below the 200-day MA — a classic signal of weakening momentum.
That said, context is key.
This cross is forming during a low-volume, low-volatility consolidation phase, making it more of a lagging indicator than a fresh bearish trigger. ETF price action is heavily influenced by short-term flows, which can exaggerate technical signals during choppy markets.
From a broader crypto perspective: • Bitcoin remains range-bound, with no major higher-timeframe breakdown yet • ETF inflows have slowed, not turned into aggressive outflows • Death crosses in BTC-related markets often appear near local bottoms, not the start of major crashes
Bottom line: This is a caution signal, not confirmation. Until we see strong downside continuation with volume, this death cross alone doesn’t change the bigger picture. Patience remains key.
The market feels extremely boring these days. No real volume, no momentum. Just slow and choppy price action everywhere.
This is the phase where boredom pushes traders to make mistakes. But trading out of boredom is one of the fastest ways to lose capital.
Best move right now is to wait. Trade when the market gives real setups, not when emotions ask for action.
Opportunities may come back soon with momentum. Until then, stay patient, stay disciplined and wait for the right tme.
Stay Safe !!!
More details version of this & include crypto market updates too
🔵 Plan A: Upside Liquidity Sweep → Reversal • Structure and trendline still intact, allowing one last upside. • Price moves into 95–98k (possible 98–100k wick) to grab buy-side liquidity at range highs. • Late longs and breakout traders enter; funding and sentiment heat up. • Smart money distributes into strength and opens shorts. • Rejection confirmation: long upper wicks, bearish 4H/1D close, loss of local support. • Breakdown triggers long liquidations, accelerating downside. • Final target: 71–77k, strong HTF demand / prior accumulation.
🔴 Plan B: Support Failure → Momentum Sell-off • Current support/trendline breaks decisively. • No liquidity grab; upside attempt fails early. • Stop-loss cascade and long exits flip momentum bearish. • Pullbacks remain shallow and corrective. • Price continues lower efficiently. • Final target: 71–77k HTF demand.
Key takeaway: Bias remains bearish on higher timeframe. Execution depends on confirmation: • Rejection at 95–98k → Plan A shorts • Clean support loss → Plan B shorts
Bitcoin has reacted exactly as anticipated, facing a strong rejection from the range high between $93K–$95K. This zone continues to act as a major supply area, where sellers are aggressively stepping in.
Current Price Action • BTC is now rotating back toward the range low • Momentum remains bearish in the short term • Volume confirms distribution near the range high
Key Support Zone: $86K–$87.5K • This zone has acted as a strong demand area multiple times • A revisit here is healthy range continuation, not bearish by default • We are expecting a technical bounce from this region if buyers defend
➡️ As long as BTC holds above $86K–$87.5K, the macro bias remains bullish, and higher targets stay valid
Invalidation / Bearish Scenario • A clean breakdown and failure to reclaim $86K • Would indicate range failure • Could open the path toward the $80K psychological support • Below $80K, market structure would turn decisively bearish
Key Levels to Watch • Resistance: $93K–$95K • Range Support: $86K–$87.5K • Critical Breakdown Level: $86K • Downside Target if Lost: ~$80K
Bias Summary • Short-term: Bearish pullback within range • Mid-term: Bullish as long as $86K holds • High probability setup: Bounce from range low → rotation back toward range high
There are no changes in the last daily update. Bitcoin is still in a downtrend,continuing to form lower lows. 👉🏻Based on current market structure, the pump we are currently seeing on the lower time frame (LTF) is likely just a temporary move up to take liquidity, before the next bigger move toward the 77k–71k area.
You might now be wondering — 👉 How far can this LTF upside move go then?
According to structure, price can move up into the premium zone of the Fibonacci drawn from the last strong impulsive move. After taking liquidity at that levels, price may then continue moving downward.
Because of this, there are three important levels in the premium zone where this upside move could end. A clear rejection from any of these levels could start the next major move down toward 71k–77k.
Bitcoin’s current structure is a classic bear flag: a sharp drop followed by a controlled, upward-sloping channel. This pattern usually leads to another leg down — but only after a final upside sweep.
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🚀 Bullish Scenario (Liquidity Hunt to $100K)
Even in a bearish setup, BTC often grabs upside liquidity before reversing.
What supports a final push: • Large short liquidations sitting at $95K–$100K • Funding still mildly positive → room for a squeeze • Sellers clustering around $98K–$100K • High OI → perfect setup for a blow-off move
Targets if the squeeze happens: • $97,500 – first resistance • $99,500–$100,800 – major liquidity + fakeout zone This is where a sharp wick or rejection is most likely.
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🩸 Bearish Scenario (Flag Breakdown After the Sweep)
Once liquidity above $100K is taken, the bear flag can fully play out.
FUN FACT: 15 years ago today, Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared after posting on the Bitcoin Forum for the last time.
🧠 Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? • The anonymous creator of Bitcoin, published the whitepaper in 2008 and launched the network in 2009. • Identity is still unknown — could be one person or a group. • Craig Wright claimed to be Satoshi but was legally proven not Satoshi.
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🗓 His Disappearance • Dec 12, 2010: Last public BitcoinTalk post. • April 2011: Last private emails to developers (“I’ve moved on to other things”). • No verified communication since then.
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💰 Satoshi’s Bitcoin Holdings • Estimated to have mined ~1.0–1.1 million BTC in the early days. • These coins have never moved, not even once. • At today’s prices, the stash is worth tens of billions to over $100B.
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🔐 Why His Coins Stay Untouched (Main Theories) 1. He intentionally left the project to keep Bitcoin decentralized. 2. He lost access to the keys. 3. He never intended to cash out.
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🏛 Legacy
By disappearing and not spending his BTC, Satoshi ensured Bitcoin stayed leaderless, decentralized, and censorship-resistant.
⚠ Why Coinbase isn’t top-5 • They custody huge amounts, but those wallets are split across hundreds of addresses. • Coinbase’s own BTC (company balance sheet) is small compared to their total custodial BTC.
💥 $1.5B+ in shorts will get liquidated at $95,076 — BTC is primed for a squeeze.
🔎 Why this level matters
A massive cluster of high-leverage shorts sits between $93.5K–$95K. Once BTC pushes into this band, exchanges start auto-buying to close losing short positions, triggering a chain reaction.
⚡ What happens if $95,076 breaks • Forced liquidations → rapid buy pressure • Thin liquidity above $95K → fast move to $96K–$97K • Momentum candles likely as shorts panic-exit
📊 Market structure supports upside • Higher lows on HTFs • Neutral funding (market not overly long) • Solid spot demand + improving liquidity • Clean liquidity gap above $95K
🟢 Bottom Line
One clean push into $95,076 can trigger a classic short squeeze, with price ripping quickly toward $96K+.
🚀 CZ ON A 2026 CRYPTO SUPERCYCLE — WHAT IT REALLY MEANS
Binance founder CZ says 2026 could trigger a crypto supercycle — a phase where bullish momentum extends longer and stronger than a normal cycle.
Here’s the key reasoning behind it:
🔥 1. Massive Liquidity Expansion
Global liquidity is expected to peak again by 2026 as: • Rate-cut cycles mature • Balance sheets loosen • Risk assets attract capital This creates the ideal environment for parabolic flows into crypto.
📈 2. ETF-Driven Demand Won’t Slow
Spot BTC + ETH ETFs have normalized institutional buying. By 2026, multi-asset crypto ETFs, staking ETFs, and Solana/L2 ETFs could be live → consistent inflows.
🌐 3. Real-World Adoption Accelerates
2026 is the expected maturity point for: • On-chain payments • Tokenized real-world assets • Layer-2 scaling + ZK tech • AI × Blockchain integrations Adoption waves often lag innovation by ~18–24 months → lining up with 2026.
♻️ 4. Supply Dynamics Are Brutal
Post-halving supply shock hits full force by mid-2025. The 2026 mining supply curve will be the tightest in Bitcoin’s history.
🧩 5. Global Regulatory Clarity
US, EU, UAE, Singapore, Korea — all converging toward a clear regulatory environment. Less uncertainty → more capital flows.
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🟢 Bottom Line
CZ’s “supercycle” call isn’t random — the fundamentals line up for a longer, extended bull phase in 2026, not just a normal 1-year top.
But supercycle ≠ straight line up — expect brutal corrections, but a higher and longer macro uptrend.
Binance remains the world’s largest crypto exchange, controlling 35.4% of all global BTC trading volume — a level of dominance no other exchange comes close to matching.
📊 What This Means • Binance processes over one-third of all Bitcoin transactions, giving it unmatched liquidity, the deepest order books, and the tightest spreads in the market. • Its volume share is larger than several top exchanges combined, including Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, and Kraken. • Even with regulatory scrutiny over the past years, Binance has sustained its lead, showing how deeply its liquidity and user base are entrenched.
🚀 Why Binance Holds Such a Big Lead • Massive global user base → millions of active traders, especially in Asia and emerging markets. • Lowest trading fees + aggressive incentive programs. • Largest USDT and stablecoin liquidity → critical for BTC pairs. • Fastest listings and broadest product suite: spot, futures, options, copy trading, funding markets, earn products, etc. • High-frequency traders & market makers prefer Binance due to execution quality and deep books.
🧭 Market Impact • Any change in Binance’s liquidity immediately affects BTC volatility, spreads, and funding rates across the entire market. • Because so much BTC price discovery happens on Binance, it remains a benchmark exchange for traders, institutions, and market data providers.
Perp DEXs just hit a historic milestone: $1T+ volume for two straight months — 4× higher YoY, proving derivatives have fully moved on-chain. The 10/10 perp wipeout accelerated the shift from CEXs to transparent, no-KYC, self-custodial DEXs.
🚀 Aster’s Momentum • $3.5T+ total volume • 31% of all perp DEX activity (Nov) • 400K new traders since Oct; nearing 1M total • $1.15B TVL (3rd highest) • $1.7M–$2.2M daily fees • 155.7M $ASTER buyback (50% burned; rest for long-term airdrops) • Recently overtook Hyperliquid in monthly volumes (boosted by airdrop farmers)
🎹 Recent Upgrades • Liquidation Points Program (recover up to 50% of losses) • $ASTER as collateral (80% margin; 5% fee discount) • Dark-Pool execution for institutions/whales
🔥 The Final FOMC Meeting of the Year • Markets are pricing in an 88% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, marking a potential shift toward a more accommodative policy stance. • This meeting is especially important because rumors are circulating about a new Federal Reserve liquidity facility. • The speculation grew after recent spikes in overnight lending rates, suggesting stress or tightening in short-term funding markets. • If confirmed, the facility could: • Inject fresh liquidity into the system • Stabilize overnight markets • Ease pressure on risk assets • Increase volatility short-term but support risk-on sentiment medium-term
🎯 Why This Week Matters • A rate cut + new liquidity tool would be the strongest dovish signal in months. • Wednesday will likely see heightened volatility across: • BTC / ETH • US indices (S&P, Nasdaq) • DXY & yields • Gold and risk-on sectors • Markets will react not just to the decision, but to Powell’s tone and forward guidance.
📊 BTC Made New Highs + Saw 2 Corrections — Yet 2025 Is One of the Least Volatile Years Ever
Even though Bitcoin pushed to new yearly highs and went through two solid corrections, realized volatility is near decade-low levels.
Why volatility is low despite big moves • Realized volatility (30D–180D) in 2025 is tracking near the lowest levels since 2012, even lower than many previous bull markets. • Spot ETF flows + deeper liquidity have stabilized price action, reducing sharp swings. • Market maturity means BTC’s larger market cap needs bigger capital inflows/outflows to create extreme volatility. • More long-term holders and institutional presence dampen impulsive, leverage-driven moves.
What it means • Cleaner, smoother trends — fewer chaotic spikes. • Strong rallies and pullbacks but within controlled volatility bands. • BTC is behaving more like a macro asset, not a high-risk altcoin. • Low volatility + upward structure often precedes large, directional moves later.