GEMINI

The latest #Bitcoin selloff triggered the most significant 7 day change in short term holder cost basis since the FTX low in 2022 around $16K. This suggests a sharp shakeout among recent entrants, with panic driven selling and liquidations playing a major role.

In past cycles, events like this have often marked a reset in market structure, clearing excess risk and allowing stronger hands to step in. Volatility may persist but these moments tend to define important inflection zones.

#Bitcoin has outperformed nearly every major crypto sector over the past three months. This consistent gap in performance reflects a market where capital is strongly biased toward #BTC. Investors are showing a clear preference for stability and depth of liquidity, while riskier sectors struggle to attract sustained inflows. Unless sentiment shifts meaningfully, Bitcoin is expected to stay in control of broader market trends.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

An ELR reading of 0.18 highlights a clear sense of caution in the #XRP market on Binance. This suggests that traders are not aggressively committing to positions yet, as the market continues to reposition itself. Such a low reading often reflects uncertainty and reduced risk appetite, indicating that participants are waiting for stronger confirmation before making decisive moves.

Overall, this phase points to XRP building a more stable and balanced foundation, which could set the stage for a clearer directional move once confidence returns and volume strengthens.

An ELR reading of 0.18 highlights a clear sense of caution in the #XRP market on Binance. This suggests that traders are not aggressively committing to positions yet, as the market continues to reposition itself. Such a low reading often reflects uncertainty and reduced risk appetite, indicating that participants are waiting for stronger confirmation before making decisive moves.

Overall, this phase points to XRP building a more stable and balanced foundation, which could set the stage for a clearer directional move once confidence returns and volume strengthens.

#Bitcoin’s NVT Z-score has fallen to −0.87, a level last seen in May 2022, showing that BTC may be undervalued as market cap has dropped while on chain and spot volumes have stayed relatively stable. This does not mean Bitcoin is an instant buy and should be confirmed with other indicators but historically such devaluation phases have offered good medium term opportunities. Caution is still necessary, because if #BTC enters a real bear market, many on chain signals can become unreliable.

Market volatility triggered massive liquidations in the past day, with 102,710 traders affected and losses reaching $247.44 million.
Hyperliquid recorded the largest single #ETHUSD liquidation at $4.85 million.

Market pressure is clearly building as #Bitcoin continues to trade well below its recent peak. With price sitting nearly 30 percent under the all time high, short term holders are increasingly feeling the strain. On chain indicators reflect this stress. The Short Term Holder SOPR has moved below 1, signaling that many recent participants are selling at a loss. This typically points to fear driven exits and weakening short term sentiment.

Loss realization is also visible in the Profit and Loss Block data, which shows a rise in realized losses across the network. Most of this selling activity is coming from short term holders, while long term holders remain comparatively stable. Such conditions often mark a local stress phase in the market. While the broader trend remains uncertain, these periods have historically preceded consolidation or a potential base forming once forced selling subsides.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

The correlation between #Bitcoin and the #Nasdaq is clearly breaking down. Gaps like this rarely persist for long. Either Bitcoin pushes higher to realign or equities give back gains to restore balance. Until that happens, markets should be prepared for increased volatility.

Michael Saylor is once again fueling speculation about a fresh #Bitcoin buy. With his latest comment, “Back to more orange dots,” he’s strongly implying that another accumulation phase could be underway.

Market volatility triggered a sharp liquidation wave over the last 24 hours, forcing 93,507 traders out of their positions and wiping out $139.98 million in total. The largest single liquidation was recorded on Hyperliquid, where a #BTCUSD trade worth $2.80 million was liquidated in one move.

With spot price around $90.2K, on chain levels remain largely unchanged. Price is below the short term holder cost basis at $102.2K, keeping short term pressure intact, while trading just above the active investor mean near $88.0K.

The true market mean around $81.4K continues to act as a key support zone, and the realized price at $56.4K shows long term holders are still in strong profit. Overall, the market is stuck between short term weakness and long term strength.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Market sentiment has shifted toward a more cautious tone as demand around the $80k level holds firm over the past four days. The rebound from $80.5k has eased immediate hedging needs, while fading downside flows reduce the likelihood of a deeper, extended sell off. Overall, participants appear more selective and patient rather than aggressively defensive.

$ETH is outperforming $BTC in December.

#Bitcoin is currently trading between $89,000 and $93,000, the yellow zone where price is reacting to key distribution levels. Distribution clusters are acting as support and resistance inside this range, while distribution gaps are attracting price and getting filled.

Around 34 percent of total Bitcoin supply has been distributed above $90,000, showing strong acceptance at higher prices. The large distribution near $84,000 is mostly due to Coinbase related movements and should not be considered a true market distribution level.

A total of around 5.94 million #BTC roughly 29.8% of the circulating supply, is currently held by major entities, including public companies with about 1.07 million BTC, governments holding around 0.62 million BTC, U.S. spot #ETFs with approximately 1.31 million BTC and exchanges controlling nearly 2.94 million BTC. This clearly shows how Bitcoin’s liquidity is becoming increasingly concentrated among institutions, custodians and large players rather than retail holders.

As more #Bitcoin moves into long term storage through ETFs, corporate balance sheets and government reserves, the freely tradable supply continues to decline, which can reduce selling pressure and increase scarcity. Over time, this structural shift may lead to sharper price reactions during demand spikes and reflects #Bitcoin’s evolution from a retail driven market to one shaped largely by institutional participation and long term holding behavior.

Market stress has been building during #Bitcoin’s consolidation between $80K and $90K, reaching levels similar to those seen in late January 2022. With Relative Unrealized Loss nearing 10% of total market capitalization, a growing segment of investors is holding unrealized losses, increasing pressure across the market. This situation reflects a low liquidity environment where price sensitivity to macroeconomic developments is heightened.

However, the data still falls short of conditions that usually signal full bear market capitulation. Large scale panic selling has not materialized and longer term holders appear relatively resilient. As a result, the market seems to be in a transitional phase rather than a breakdown. Future direction will likely depend on external triggers such as economic data releases or shifts in global risk sentiment, rather than internal market exhaustion alone.

#Bitcoin holdings are becoming increasingly concentrated across major institutional and custodial players. Public companies now hold around 1.07 million BTC on their balance sheets, while governments control roughly 0.62 million BTC, largely from confiscations and reserves. U.S. spot ETFs have accumulated about 1.31 million BTC, centralized exchanges custody approximately 2.94 million BTC, making them the largest holders overall. Combined, these entities control nearly 5.94 million BTC, which is about 29.8 percent of the circulating supply.

This shift signals a clear structural change in the market, where liquidity is steadily moving away from retail participants and into long term institutional custody. As more Bitcoin becomes locked within ETFs, corporate treasuries, and custodial platforms, the freely tradable supply continues to shrink, increasing the market’s sensitivity to demand changes and reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity driven dynamics over time.