ALISHBA SOZAR

16th December is Over

Now Next ?

First of all why till December 16th was our Choice for Choppiness Range, & No Major Trend ?

Revisiting to Last FOMC , Powell told there are No Clues Yet for January Rate Cuts will see according to Data.

Then after that Next Jobs Data was at Dec 16th

So what Happened ?

Data was Fully Mixed, Leaving again No Trend.

Market still Predicts
•No Rate Cuts in Jan for 74.5%

We Needs to See Odd Decrease and Rate Cut odds increase for a market Boost.

Now you will be asking When is Next Major Data ?

Tommorow Eve.

CPI + Jobs.

So till then, we are Not Seeing a Major trend , might be a Riskoff or Consolidation.

What Does Technical say ?

We are at Last Line of Defence at at 86.7k

We lose that and we will visit 83.7K

If Hold structure above it we will likely trend higher up to 90-92K

Main dependence on Upcoming Data & News

This phase is not only the hardest , but most uncertain market will most Dissents.

YoY BTC is still (-)8% from Jan closing price, so if you are still positive, Thank yourself , Survive and be Patient

Stay tuned

If you are in crypto, here is a very important message for you. 📝

Q1 will be the most important quarter for $BTC and the crypto market. Discipline in Q1 is everything.

- If you’re going out every weekend, twice a day, cut it down to one day.

- If you’re drinking 3–4 times a week, cut it down to 1 time per week.

- If you’re doing drugs, be honest with yourself and commit to quitting by the end of this year.

Same goes for your information diet.

If you’re following X accounts that clearly don’t know what the heck they’re talking about, spreading noise and misinformation, unfollow them.

You don’t need 100 different $BTC “analysts.”

Follow 3–5 people who have proven they can make consistent, correct calls over time.

Your mind and body need to be optimized to make high-quality decisions.

Bad habits create bad judgment.
Bad judgment creates bag-holders.

When euphoria comes, you won’t be the one stuck holding bags.

Because you’ll remember this:

When retail comes back, that's when you sell. When everyone shouting for 500k BTC, that's when you know it's time to leave.

Q1 is where you prepare to win.

Act like it... starting today.

Life after accepting that crypto isn't for me

Can we really see an alt season in 2026?

Read this until the end.

Every major altcoin bull run has started with the same shift:

👉 The Fed stops QT
👉 Liquidity comes back
👉 Altcoins move fast

Here’s the part most people forget:

Before every big altseason, the market hurts.

-It retests support again and again.
-It triggers liquidations.
-It forces weak hands out.

2020 looked like this:

-Fed ended QT
-Alt market cap retested -support multiple times
- liquidation wicks scared everyone
-Then altcoins ran over 1,000%

2025–2026 is starting to rhyme:

-Fed is ending QT again
-Alt market cap is sitting on the same multi-year support
-Liquidations already happening

Structure looks very similar , just on a larger scale

The market hasn’t changed.

It scares you before it rewards you. It cleans leverage before it trends.

It shakes people out right before the real move. Most will sell on the liquidation wick and watch the next cycle from the sidelines.

If liquidity truly flips, this won’t be a slow rally. It’ll be explosive.

And it might be the biggest altcoin run we see for a long time.

If you have survived:

Luna collapse
3AC blowup
Celsius and BlockFi freeze
FTX crash
Crypto banking crisis
Fed QT
Regulatory attacks
Yen carry trade unwind
3+ years of BTC dominance
April tariff shock
November's Liquidation Event

You can survive this dump too.

Don’t sell your bags to the big players.

The state of crypto market:

Why is bitcoin not pumping?

Because 50% is selling (OGs traumatized by 2021, technical investors looking at RSI, 4y cycle fans expecting a bear 2y post halving) while the other 50% is buying (fundamental investors, tradfi, banks).

Epic battle ... until sellers are out of ammo.

🚨 BREAKING: 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan has confirmed it will increase interest rates to 75bps in 3 days.

lock in.

its not the best time to touch grass, not the time to disengage.

and definitely not the time to be a tourist thinking “I’ll be back when markets look good.”

by then, it’s usually too late.

this is usually when the next rotation quietly starts forming and you only catch it if you show up every day.

one thing I’ve learned watching multiple cycles is that wealth in crypto rarely rotates into the same ideas twice.

it doesn’t move from one meme to its sequel. it moves from old attention to new curiosity.

that’s why so many people get stuck waiting for the next version of what already worked. most of the time, that’s where capital gets trapped.

real rotations usually begin somewhere new:

- new tech
- new behavior
- new use cases
- or a catalyst most people aren’t watching yet

and they usually start when things feel messy, boring, and unclear like the market right now.

to catch it, you need to be present.

I didn’t catch things early that made me money because of luck.

I caught them because I was around, paying attention and had dry powder when it mattered.

so yeah lock in. stay patient. keep some chips ready and show up everyday

that’s how you stay in the game long enough to catch the real rotation.

Which phrase sounds crazier to you?

A) “THE DOLLAR IS GOING TO ZERO”

B) “BITCOIN IS GOING TO ZERO”

$BTC Still just moving up and down between these two major areas.

Major support around the $84K-$85K region with the big resistance at $94K.

In between is just more ranging and choppy price action.

2025 Performance:

Silver: 113%
Gold: 65%
Copper: 32%
Nasdaq: 14.6%
S&P 500: 12.5%
Russell 2000: 8.04%
BTC: -7.7%
ETH: -12%
SOL: -33%

The crypto market is now officially the worst-performing asset in 2025.

We‘re getting a bull market that is pumping all of my altcoin bags for around 6 months and and then destroying them for around every 6 months again, depending on Bitcoin going up 30% or down.

It will probably continue to be like this forever and has pretty much also always been like this.

This is the most profitable strategy for whales who are controlling the market.

This is just my personal estimation from what I can see, up to you how you play it, NFA, DYOR.

everything you invest in crypto goes down

quite literally the only things, that are not down over any reasonable timeframe is BTC and ETH, and ETH barely there.

all top 10 cryptos are down bad always

all those raising 100s of billions in foundations, go to zero

all the best revenue producing, good product backed altcoins, literally with 10s of billions in TVL, are in the gutter

people investing in all sorts of equity layers of successful protocols, all in the gutter

people speculating on memecoins, are shot in the dead immediately

people speculating on NFTs, all murdered and floor wiped and funerals forgotten

the stock market has a decent bid for everything, at all times, but nothing in this space does, even genuine revenue producing and sharing projects

how has this place become such a cancer its insane

you cannot, absolutely cannot anymore in sound mind, recommend crypto to anyone, you will be doing them a disservice

like genuinely, i tell people i care about to never touch this market

quite literally not even BTC, look at that piss poor performance, you lose 40% of your position in a month, while stocks are hitting all time highs, while gold and silver hit all time highs, while inflation is soaring

quite literally treasury bills outperformed BTC and the entirety of crypto in the year 2025

shit if you stashes CASH in your fucking mattress, YOU DID BETTER THAN ANYONE HOLDING CRYPTO

there are only so many years left where you can even make wealth, before the world absolutley collapses, and crypto has done nothing but detriment everyone in these pivotal years

the craziest part is that there is actually so much fundamental value in this industry, yet all it seems to do is value destruction
$BTC $ETH

My Chinese quant sent me this $BTC chart

Said "牛市结束了"

Refused to elaborate

Iykyk

“ Experts ” predictions for Bitcoin before the end of 2025

$170,000 - JPMorgan
$180,000 - VanEck
$200,000 - Standard Chartered
$250,000 - Tim Draper
$126,000 - Tom Lee
$350,000 - Robert Kiyosaki
$500,000 - Chamath Palihapitiya

🤡

$BTC

Absolute giga bid below us.

This is the biggest buy wall we have seen since Tariff lows.

84-78K.

Regardless of short term pain and downside.

Regardless of my short term setups based on what I see and what not.

I actually see almost no single scenario where $ETH doesn't reach $10,000 and more in the future.

Predictions in terms of timeline is mostly meaningless and impossible to tell.

But like Bitcoin, I see it as an asset with almost infinite upside.

Probably in terms of multipliers maybe even higher than Bitcoin (return, not market cap and size).

I see comments saying "sentiment can get more bearish" or "sentiment isn't bearish yet".

With all the comparisons to early 2022, and how everyone expects a rejection at the 50 week moving average...

Sentiment is completely different to early 2022.

People were still hopeful, even after bitcoin went from 69k to 32k in January 2022.

They were still looking for a breakout at 48k resistance, before Do Kwons Terra Luna contagion hit.

They were still bullish after a break down to 25k in may 2022.

People only became fearful after 17k in June. And they remained afraid long after the bottom hit at 15k...all the way in to 2023.

Even after 30k hit in 2023, 100% off the lows, people were commenting how there was no liquidity coming, or Gensler would kill bitcoin/crypto.

And again people then got bullish late 2023, or early 2024 in time to buy the top, after bitcoin had already done 3-5x from bear market lows.

My point in all this is to say people look backwards to predict the future using recency bias.

They are always 6-12 months behind, meaning they sell low and buy high.

We are witnessing the same thing again. People are bearish when they should be bullish.

Since the timeline is really depressing

I'll be the one to say it

I'm bullish on the upcoming few weeks/months