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The Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise That Could Rattle Bitcoin Before Christmas | US Crypto News
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee as the latest US labor data delivers mixed signals on jobs, wages, and unemployment. Traders are weighing what it all means for risk assets, from equities to Bitcoin, as volatility sets the tone.
Crypto News of the Day: October Jobs Collapse and November Modest Gain Signal Uneven Market
The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October and November 2025 delivered a shock to markets, as it is one of the crucial

Top 3 Price Predictions: Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver Signal a High-Stakes Turning Point
Bitcoin, gold, and silver remain the focus this week ahead of the US CPI on Thursday and the prospective Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.
With the macro narratives lined up, analysts signal imminent volatility for BTC, XAU, and XAG prices.
Price Prediction for Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver Ahead of Key Macro Headlines
The US CPI on Thursday and the almost certain BOJ rate hike on Friday position the Bitcoin price and that of commodity safe havens, such as gold and silver, for volatility. Against this backdrop, the outlook for BTC, XAU, and XAG this week is as follows.
Relief Rally Weakens Amid Bearish Bitcoin Price Structure
Bitcoin’s daily chart presents a counter-trend recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. The price has fallen out of an ascending channel, suggesting a relief rally may be weakening following the sharp drawdown from the $126,000 peak.
While the short-term structure has improved, Bitcoin remains below key moving averages, including the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $95,601 and $101,022, respectively. These levels have been steadily tracking the BTC price from the upside, serving as dynamic resistance.
The RSI is recovering from oversold territory, currently stabilizing near the mid-40s, and a pending buy signal suggests improving short-term momentum. This buy signal will be executed once the RSI (purple band) crosses above its signal line (yellow band).
Meanwhile, the MACD line remains above the signal line, indicating that bullish momentum technically remains in control. However, sellers continue to show strength, seeing as this indicator resides in negative territory.
While the histogram bars are contracting and fading from their green hue, this only indicates that buying pressure is weakening, not that the bulls have capitulated. Note, the histograms remain in positive territory.
An analysis of the bullish Volume Profile (green horizontal bars) reveals a heavy overhead demand with late dip buyers waiting to interact with BTC above the $90,000 psychological level.
For Bitcoin to shift into a bullish continuation phase, it must break above the lower boundary of the ascending channel and reclaim the $100,000 level. Traders looking to capitalize on this potential upside should consider waiting for a candlestick close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $98,018.
Until then, the market favors range-bound recovery trading, with an elevated risk of rejection at resistance levels. The broader trend remains cautious, but early signs of stabilization are emerging.
Gold Price Rising Channel Nears Upper Boundary as Sell Signals Emerge
Like Bitcoin, Gold’s 4-hour chart highlights a well-defined ascending channel, with price currently eyeing the $4,381 XAU price all-time high.
Structurally, the trend remains bullish, as gold continues to post higher highs and higher lows while respecting channel support throughout November and December.
That said, momentum is beginning to diverge. The RSI has rolled over from elevated levels, hovering around the mid-to-high 60s, and a clearly marked pending sell signal suggests waning upside momentum. The sell signal would be executed once the RSI crosses below the signal line.
This does not imply a trend reversal, but rather an increased probability of a pullback toward channel support. Such a move would provide late XAU bulls with a discounted entry into the gold trade.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels reinforce this view. A corrective move toward $4,265 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) or $4,193 (38.2% Fib) would remain fully consistent with trend continuation.
A deeper retracement to the $4,134 would only become concerning if accompanied by a channel breakdown, with the bullish thesis invalidated once price breaks and closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Unless the gold price decisively breaks and closes below $4,076 on the 4-hour timeframe, the current setup favors short-term consolidation or a corrective downside move.
The medium-term bias remains constructive, but momentum traders should exercise caution when chasing highs at this stage.
Silver Price Breakout Strength Faces Overextension Risks
Silver’s daily chart displays a powerful bullish breakout, with the XAG price surging toward the $64-$65 resistance zone. The broader trend structure remains decisively bullish, supported by a rising Bollinger Band midline and sustained closes above key moving averages.
The silver price has respected higher highs and higher lows since mid-year, confirming strong trend continuation.
However, momentum indicators suggest near-term exhaustion risk. The RSI near 74 signals overbought conditions, historically associated with short-term pullbacks or consolidation rather than immediate trend reversals.
At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains positive and expanding, indicating bullish momentum is still intact beneath the surface.
Key downside levels to watch sit at $56.90, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A shallow retracement into this zone would likely be constructive, allowing momentum to reset while preserving the broader uptrend.
However, a break below $52.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) would threaten upside momentum. The bullish outlook would only be invalidated if the price falls below $44.56, marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the upside, a clean daily close above $65 could open the door toward psychological extension levels beyond current projections.
Overall, silver remains in a strong bullish regime, but traders should expect volatility and possible mean reversion before the next sustained leg higher. Risk management becomes critical at these elevated levels, especially for late entries.

One Critical XRP Price Level Surfaces — Holding It Could Trigger a 9% Bounce
XRP is trading near $1.99, down about 1% over the past 24 hours. Despite broader market volatility, it is only around 4% lower on the week, showing relative stability compared to many altcoins like ADA and BCH.
More importantly, the chart is flashing an early bullish reversal signal. The setup is not confirmed yet, but if one key level continues to hold, the odds of a short-term rebound, at least 9%, increase meaningfully.
Bullish Divergence Appears as the XRP Price Defends Key Support
XRP has formed a bullish divergence on the daily chart between December 1 and December 14. A bullish divergence happens when the price makes a lower low, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) makes a higher low. RSI is a momentum indicator that measures buying and selling strength. When RSI improves while price weakens, it often signals that selling pressure is fading.
On the daily chart, a standard bullish divergence like this can lead to trend reversal — from bearish to bullish.
Yet, this divergence alone is not enough. It only matters if the XRP price holds support.
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That support sits near $1.97. XRP has repeatedly defended this zone, and on-chain data helps explain why.
The cost basis heatmap shows a dense cluster of XRP bought between roughly $1.97 and $1.98.
Around 1.79 billion XRP were accumulated in this range. A cost basis heatmap shows where large groups of holders bought their coins. When price trades near these levels, holders are less likely to sell at a loss, which strengthens support.
As long as XRP stays above $1.97, the bullish divergence theory remains valid, provided the RSI reading stays strong.
Why $2.17 Is the First Real Test for the Bulls
If support holds, XRP has room to move higher. The first upside target sits near $2.17, which is roughly a 9% move from current levels.
This level matters because the cost basis heatmap shows heavy supply between $2.16 and $2.17. About 1.36 billion XRP were acquired in this zone. That makes it a strong resistance area, where selling pressure is likely to appear.
If the XRP price pushes through $2.17 with a daily candle close, it could open the path toward $2.28, then $2.69, and eventually $3.10. Yet, those levels remain secondary for now and depend on broader market conditions.
The invalidation is clear. A daily close below $1.97 would weaken the reversal setup and expose downside toward $1.81 and $1.77.
For now, the XRP price sits at a decision point. The bullish reversal signal is active, but only if the most important support level continues to hold.$XRP