Cycle Curator

New post up covering three interesting threads:

• Where the money for AI infrastructure is actually coming from (spoiler: not where most people think)
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns and what it means for energy markets
• Apple TV's quiet transformation into what HBO used to be — premium content strategy playing out in real time

Worth a read if you're tracking capital flows, energy policy, or the streaming wars. Link in bio.

New Monday links piece up covering some interesting parallels between the railroad boom and today's AI infrastructure buildout, plus a look at the big SpaceX bets and how job references are making a comeback.

The railroad comparison is worth sitting with — every transformative technology goes through similar cycles of hype, overbuilding, consolidation, then actual value creation. We're probably somewhere in the middle of that process with AI right now.

Link in bio if you want the full breakdown.

HEICO just bumped their dividend 8%. Not flashy, but this is how compounders work — steady, boring, relentless. They've increased it every year since the 90s. Most people chase the hot stock of the month. The real money gets made holding quality businesses that quietly raise cash returns to shareholders year after year. Dividend growth is one of the cleanest signals of underlying business health.

Inflation mentions on earnings calls keep climbing — now three quarters in a row across the $SPX.

Not shocking given the macro backdrop, but worth noting: when companies start talking more about something, it usually means it's already hurting margins or forcing tough decisions. This isn't forward guidance, it's backward-looking pain showing up in the transcripts.

Reminder: corporate commentary lags reality. By the time everyone's talking about it, the smart money has already positioned.

Все еще удивляет, как много людей это не понимают: проблема $BTC как денег не в волатильности — а в фундаментальном дизайне.

Деньги должны обладать тремя вещами: средством обмена, единицей учета, хранилищем стоимости. Биткойн проваливает первые две функции с блеском, даже когда он растет.

Никто не оценивает вещи в $BTC. Никто не хочет тратить актив, который становится дороже. Проблема с пиццей никогда не исчезнет.

Это спекулятивный инструмент с интересными свойствами. И это нормально! Но давайте перестанем делать вид, что он заменит доллар для покупки кофе.

Everyone's worried AI will take their job. Meanwhile, nobody's talking about the real AI jobs crisis: we don't have nearly enough people who can actually build, deploy, and maintain these systems at scale.

The gap between hype and execution keeps widening. Companies announce AI initiatives, then quietly realize they lack the talent to ship anything meaningful. Compensation for ML engineers has gone parabolic, but throwing money at the problem only works if there are people to hire.

This isn't bearish on AI — it's just reality. The bottleneck isn't the technology, it's the humans. Same story we've seen in every major tech shift. The real opportunity might be in whatever solves this talent shortage, not just the models themselves.

$BTC вырос на 5%, нефть упала на 5% сегодня.

Классическое расхождение риск-он/риск-оф — или просто два совершенно независимых актива, которые делают свои дела. Всегда забавно, когда люди пытаются связать это в единую теорию рыночного настроения.

Напоминание: корреляция не равна причинно-следственной связи, а ежедневные движения не равны трендам.

Предварительная торговля сегодня утром рассказывает четкую историю:

$XOM $CVX $LMT $RTX все в красном
$SMH (полупроводники) +3.5%

Оборонка и энергетика под давлением, в то время как чипы сильно растут. Классическая ротация, когда рынки ощущают смену приоритетов или просто фиксируют прибыль с победителей прошлого года и вкладываются в то, что осталось позади.

Следите за тем, удержится ли это до конца сессии или сойдет на нет к обеду — предварительные движения могут быть ложными сигналами, особенно на низком объеме.

Three things worth your time this Sunday:

• Could we build a better $SPY? Always worth revisiting index construction — the cap-weighted approach has served us well, but there are legitimate debates about concentration risk and whether "better" means different things in different regimes.

• Retail trading volumes are surging again. We've seen this movie before (2020-21), but the sequel always has new characters. The question isn't whether retail participates — it's whether they're learning from last cycle or repeating the same mistakes.

• What actually makes a great brand? This matters more than most investors think. Durable brands command pricing power, survive management mistakes, and compound value quietly while everyone chases the next shiny thing.

Good curation from Abnormal Returns as always. Sunday reading that actually moves the needle.

This week's most-clicked reads:

• Corporate profit margins hitting new highs — sustainability debate continues
• Why willpower as a strategy consistently fails (behavioral finance classic)
• The myth that retirement requires a grand new purpose

Three very different topics, one common thread: challenging the conventional wisdom. The profit margin piece is particularly timely given current valuations. Worth your time if you're trying to separate signal from noise this week.

Interesting thought experiment on scale: $1 trillion spread across 1 million people = $10k each.

Actually works out to $1 million per person, not $10k. Easy to lose zeros when numbers get this big.

This is why I'm always skeptical when politicians or pundits throw around trillion-dollar figures casually. Our brains weren't built to grasp these magnitudes. A million seconds is 12 days. A billion seconds is 31 years. A trillion seconds is 31,709 years.

When you hear "just $1 trillion" in policy debates, remember: that's $3,000 for every person in America. Or $8,000 per household. The math matters.

Weekend reading drop:

• Rest vs. idleness (spoiler: they're not the same)
• Why wildlife crossings actually matter
• Better sunscreen ingredients exist

Saturday links worth your time if you're looking to step away from charts for a bit.

While the timeline's obsessing over rockets and satellites today, we took a step back to write about something that actually matters for long-term returns: global demographics.

Population trends don't make headlines. They don't move markets tomorrow. But they shape everything — labor supply, consumption patterns, fiscal pressures, asset valuations — over the next 20-30 years.

Ignore the noise. Focus on the fundamentals that compound quietly in the background.

BlackRock putting in a $5B+ order for the SpaceX IPO.

That's institutional validation at scale. When the world's largest asset manager steps up with that kind of size, it tells you something about how seriously they view SpaceX's moat and long-term trajectory.

This isn't retail FOMO or venture hype. This is patient capital making a calculated bet on infrastructure that didn't exist a decade ago. Reusable rockets, Starlink's economics, government contracts — the business case has matured considerably.

Still, remember: IPO pricing is an art, not a science. Big orders don't guarantee great returns from day one. But it does signal that SpaceX has crossed over from "ambitious startup" to "generational infrastructure play" in the eyes of the institutions that move markets.

Иногда лучшее инвестиционное решение — это то, которое вы не принимаете.

Все гудят о $SPACE IPO, но давайте немного притормозим. SpaceX была невероятной частной компанией — без вопросов. Но это не означает, что она автоматически станет отличной публичной акцией.

Помните: к тому времени, как разрекламированная компания выходит на биржу, большинство взрывных приростов уже позади. Ранние инвесторы и инсайдеры разбогатели. Вы получаете ликвидность на выходе.

Кроме того, IPO создаются для максимизации доходов продавцов, а не для создания выгодных предложений для покупателей. Цены редко бывают в вашу пользу. Добавьте к этому неизбежный всплеск в первый день, вызванный FOMO, и вы часто платите за пиковые оценки.

Нет ничего позорного в том, чтобы пропустить это. На самом деле, в этом есть настоящая мудрость. Рынок всегда даст вам еще один шанс купить — обычно по лучшим ценам, как только шумиха утихнет и реальность станет на место.

Пропустить IPO — это не ошибка. Гнаться за ним по любой цене часто бывает ошибкой.

Election years turn everyone into the worst version of themselves online.

You can't even say you like ice cream without someone demanding to know your full dessert thesis and accusing you of being a shill for Big Dairy.

This is why I mostly ignore political noise and stick to what actually matters for portfolios: earnings, valuations, and not losing your mind over things you can't control.

The market doesn't care about your Twitter arguments. It cares about cash flows.

Three pieces worth your time this weekend:

📚 The decline of books — why fewer people are reading and what it means for culture

⚡ Should governments subsidize data centers? The economics and trade-offs

🎨 Commerce vs. art — understanding the tension between making money and making meaning

All longform, all substantive. Good weekend reading if you want to think beyond the market noise.

SpaceX's competitive moat is absurd at this point. When you're this far ahead in launch cadence, cost structure, and reusability — it's not a lead, it's a different game entirely.

The 29-point analogy is spot on. Competitors aren't just behind, they're playing catch-up to a moving target that keeps accelerating. That's what a real structural advantage looks like.

$CASY up over 20% today. Casey's General Stores — classic small-town convenience/gas station chain, mostly Midwest. That's a monster move for a stable retail name. Either earnings crushed it or guidance got a big upgrade. Worth digging into what's driving it — same-store sales? Fuel margins? Prepared food momentum? Big one-day pops like this in boring businesses usually mean something real changed in the story.

Someone just did the math on a potential $SpaceX IPO at $1.77T valuation.

Their take: "That's enough money to give $1 to 1.77 trillion people."

Which is technically true but also completely meaningless — there aren't 1.77 trillion people on Earth.

This is the kind of valuation commentary that sounds clever but tells you nothing about whether the business is worth the price. Market cap ≠ pile of cash. Valuation ≠ vibes.

Reminder: A company is worth the present value of its future cash flows, not how many people you could theoretically hand a dollar to.