CryptoQuant Quicktake

With Bitcoin quoted at $60,929.27 and an appreciation of +3.62% in the last 24 hours, the current scenario presents a perfect double trap for retail. In the graphical aspect (Price Action), the market violated the neckline of an H&S (Head and Shoulders) pattern on the daily time frame and is now trying to break the resistance of a lateralization pattern to, subsequently, retest the major resistance (neckline in the $65k region). Market sentiment reflects optimism: positive Funding Rates, a slight increase in Open Interest, and the Market Balance Index (MBI) indicator at 0.17, suggesting a local bottom. However, cross-referencing with liquidity data reveals that this climb absolutely lacks real fuel.
The indicator that unmasks this imminent impulse is the Binance USDT Refresh Rate Z-Score, pinned at a critical level of -1.81.
THE STRUCTURAL REALITY
This Z-Score points to a systemic liquidity depletion, having as a reference the largest exchange on the planet, Binance. There are no new dollars (USDT) entering the exchange. This imminent rise towards the H&S neckline is an artificial movement, mechanically driven by liquidations of late Shorts, and not by organic demand.
THE KILL POINT
By adding this lack of liquidity to the recent massive BTC inflows into the exchanges (distribution Netflow), the script becomes clear: the price will be dragged to $65k to liquidate retail and validate the graphical pullback. That is where the institutional distribution will occur.
CONCLUSION FOR SWING TRADERS
Smart reading requires patience: let the absence of liquidity and the Short Squeeze do the dirty work of taking the price to the macro resistance of the H&S. It is on the retest of this neckline, when exhaustion is total, that the primary window for a surgical Short will open. Do not trade the noise; wait for the target.
Written by GugaOnChain

Data shows that $BTC Fund to All Exchange Reserve Ratio has declined significantly recently, currently around -0.69.
From an on-chain perspective, this reflects that the share of capital flow from wallets/funds relative to exchange reserves is weakening. In other words, institutional flows or large-wallet activity have not shown a clear expansion again.
The notable point is that this decline is happening while $BTC price remains weak around the $60K–$61K range. This suggests that the market has not yet seen a strong signal of large capital returning to support the trend.
However, this may also reflect a phase where funds are becoming more cautious, reducing capital rotation activity, or waiting for a clearer price structure before increasing exposure.
Written by Rei Researcher

According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin Exchange Netflow (Total) on Binance continues to lean negative, showing that more $BTC is being withdrawn from the exchange than deposited.
This usually suggests that immediate sell-side pressure on the exchange may be easing, as investors are not sending too much $BTC to Binance to be ready to sell.
The reason is that although negative netflow reflects a partial decline in exchange supply, $BTC price still remains relatively weak. This shows that the market has not yet seen a clear improvement in demand, but rather that selling pressure may be temporarily cooling down.
In other words, CryptoQuant data shows that sentiment is becoming less stressed on the supply side, but it is still not enough to confirm a strong reversal.
Written by Rei Researcher

Bitcoin’s on-chain cost-basis structure shows pressure building among recent large buyers, while the broader market trend remains constructive as long as BTC holds above the realized price of Binance user deposit addresses.
On June 30, the realized price for New Whales, defined as whales holding coins for less than 155 days, stood at $69,900.
With Bitcoin trading near $60,100, this cohort was sitting on an estimated 14% unrealized loss, leaving recent large buyers nearly $10,000 below their average acquisition price.
That creates a potential source of overhead pressure.
New whales that bought near the recent highs may be more likely to sell into rallies as Bitcoin approaches their cost basis.
However, broader on-chain positioning remains more resilient.
The realized price of Binance User Deposit Addresses was $57,070, placing Bitcoin still above a key cost basis for exchange-linked users. As long as BTC remains above this level, the wider bullish structure can be considered intact, with pressure still concentrated among newer whale buyers rather than spreading across broader market cohorts.
Other major whale groups remain comfortably in profit. Miner Whale realized price stood at $53,373, while Long-Term Holder Whale realized price was significantly lower at $47,688.
The current structure therefore shows a divided market: recent whales are underwater, but Binance users, miner whales, and long-term holder whales remain above their respective cost bases.
For now, the key condition is simple: Bitcoin needs to maintain its position above the $57K Binance realized-price level to preserve the broader upward trend.
Written by Amr Taha

This is a well-known topic in the community, this cycle won't have been the retail cycle, and their return will ultimately never have happened.
To capture this drop in market participation, this chart tracks inflows under 1 BTC on Binance, the platform most accessible and widely used by this cohort, and which represents the largest trading volumes.
The observation is striking when compared to past cycles.
Today these inflows on Binance are hitting all-time lows since the platform's existence, with the monthly average of retail inflows at 329 BTC per day.
In 2021, at the peak of the cycle, this average inflow on Binance was 2690 BTC, with a single-day peak recorded at 4900 BTC in May.
In 2018 it was even more significant, with a monthly average of 3700 BTC and a daily record of 10,400 BTC on January 4th.
There are several reasons that could explain this, while keeping in mind that Binance's spot volumes remain dominant on the market:
- Some of this retail chose to gain exposure elsewhere than Bitcoin this cycle.
- The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs as a vehicle for exposure has managed to capture many investors and pull them out of the crypto market.
- Some retail investors may now have a much longer-term outlook, or are still waiting for better BTC performance.
Other contributing factors could likely be found as well, but it's clear that the selling pressure these retail inflows on Binance used to represent is far from the level seen in previous cycles.
Every top failed to trigger a clear increase in activity from these participants, suggesting this cohort could be going extinct in the BTC market and that its makeup continues to evolve (institutionalization).
Written by Darkfost

• The most recent times Supply in Loss exceeded 10M BTC after an ATH were in December 2018 and October 2022. This level of on-chain pain is rarely observed and may represent a good opportunity to start accumulating through DCA.
Written by Facundo Fama

The latest BTC CVD Confirmation Score data on Binance shows the index stabilizing near 0.78, its highest level in over five months, as Bitcoin trades near $60,000 following a significant downward move. This discrepancy between price action and the index’s rise reflects a notable shift in market participant behavior.
Despite continued pressure on Bitcoin’s price in recent weeks, the index’s stability at its highest level in over five months suggests that current activity is not driven by short-term fluctuations or low liquidity, but rather by more consistent trading flows. In other words, market participants continue to execute orders in line with the overall trend, even as prices continue to decline.
The rise in the CVD Confirmation Score, coinciding with the price drop, could be interpreted in more than one way. On the one hand, it suggests that the current decline is confirmed by trading activity and is not merely a temporary move resulting from low liquidity, indicating continued short-term dominance by sellers. On the other hand, the index reaching these high levels may be a sign worth watching, as any subsequent shift in price direction while the index remains high could reflect a gradual improvement in market structure and pave the way for a stabilization or reversal phase if selling pressure begins to subside and a new buying wave emerges.
Written by Arab Chain

XRP reserves on two of the market’s most closely watched exchanges have declined to multi-month lows.
On Binance, XRP reserves fell from roughly 2.78 billion XRP on May 12 to 2.61 billion XRP on July 2—a decline of around 170 million XRP, or more than 6%.
The latest reading marks Binance’s lowest XRP reserve level since March 2026.
Upbit, which holds the largest XRP reserve among the exchanges tracked on the chart, also moved lower.
Its balance declined from approximately 6.515 billion XRP on May 30 to 6.457 billion XRP on July 2, a reduction of about 58 million XRP. That puts Upbit’s XRP reserve at its lowest level since April 2026.
Together, Binance and Upbit have seen roughly 228 million XRP removed from their tracked balances during the recent drawdown. While Upbit’s percentage decline is smaller, its reserve remains large enough that even modest changes can matter for XRP’s broader exchange-liquidity picture.
The move is particularly notable because the decline was not uniform across all Korean trading venues.
Bithumb’s XRP reserve remained broadly stable near 1.84 billion XRP, suggesting that the reduction is concentrated in specific exchanges rather than representing a broad withdrawal trend across every platform.
Binance appears to be the stronger signal in relative terms, with its reserve dropping more than 6% since mid-May.
Upbit adds a second important layer to the story: the largest tracked XRP reserve is also now sitting at a multi-month low.
Lower exchange-held balances can indicate that tokens are being moved into private custody, transferred between venues, or removed from immediately tradable supply. However, reserve declines alone do not confirm accumulation or guarantee a bullish price outcome. The key question is whether the reduced balances are followed by sustained demand and tighter spot-market liquidity.
Written by Amr Taha

• Supply in Loss:
1) The last time Supply in Loss exceeded 10M BTC after an ATH was in October 2022. This level of on-chain pain is rarely observed and can represent a good opportunity to accumulate through DCA.
• LTH SOPR:
1) CryptoQuant: When LTH-SOPR approaches or drops below 1, long-term holders are moving coins at or near a loss - a historically rare condition that has marked generational buying opportunities.
2) The last time LTH-SOPR opened and closed below 1 on the monthly timeframe for more than three months was in October 2022. BTC: 20K.
3) What is shown are Japanese candlesticks using only the open and close, with the wicks (high and low) removed to filter out noise.
Written by Facundo Fama

• The last time Supply in Loss exceeded 10M BTC after an ATH was in October 2022. This level of on-chain pain is rarely observed and can represent a good opportunity to accumulate through DCA.
Written by Facundo Fama

• Supply in Loss:
1) The last time Supply in Loss exceeded 10M BTC after an ATH was in October 2022. This level of on-chain pain is rarely observed and can represent a good
opportunity to accumulate through DCA.
• LTH SOPR:
1) CryptoQuant: When LTH-SOPR approaches or drops below 1, long-term holders are moving coins at or near a loss - a historically rare condition that has marked generational buying opportunities.
2) The last time LTH-SOPR opened and closed below 1 on the monthly timeframe for more than three months was in October 2022. BTC: 20K.
3) What is shown are Japanese candlesticks using only the open and close, with the wicks (high and low) removed to filter out noise.
Written by Facundo Fama

• The last time Supply in Loss exceeded 10M BTC after an ATH was in October 2022. This level of on-chain pain is rarely observed and can represent a good opportunity to accumulate through DCA.
Written by Facundo Fama

The Adjusted Sell-Side Risk Ratio just dropped back into the low-risk zone. Currently sitting around 1% on the log scale, deep in blue territory.
This metric measures the total realized profit and loss being taken relative to the realized market cap. Think of it as a thermometer for sell-side activity. When it's high (blue zone), holders are aggressively taking profits, distributing into strength. When it's this low, the opposite. Selling pressure has essentially evaporated. There's almost no profit left to take.
Looking at the full history since 2016, every single time this ratio dropped into the red zone, it marked a long-term accumulation window. Late 2016 before the run to $20K. Early 2019 before the rally to $14K. March 2020 before the move to $69K. Late 2022 before the recovery into 2023. Late 2023 before the push to six figures.
The pattern is consistent. When nobody is selling because there's nothing left to sell profitably, supply dries up. And when supply dries up in a market with even moderate demand, you know what happens.
And this isn't the only metric flashing right now. MVRV is compressing toward realized price. NUPL is in capitulation territory. The confluence across long-term valuation indicators is hard to ignore. This is SDCA territory.
Do I have strategies still in cash? Yes. Some of my systems wait for momentum to confirm before re-entering. Different timeframes, different tools. That's fine. But from a pure valuation standpoint, we're in statistically cheap zones.
Can we go lower? Of course. Nothing prevents that. But remember: it's a zone, not an exact price. You don't need to catch the perfect bottom to build wealth. You need to be present in the range.
The easiest thing to do right now is give up. Walk away. Wait for clarity that never comes. Easy doesn't mean right.
Written by RugaResearch

Total CeFi loan books declined 6% QoQ to $23.3 billion in Q1 2026, marking the first industry-wide contraction since Q3 2024 as crypto market weakness drove borrower deleveraging.
Tether remained the dominant lender with a $15.8 billion loan book and 68% market share, followed by Maple Finance (9%) and Nexo (8%).
Market share shifted toward Maple, Nexo, and Coinbase, which gained 1.0, 0.5, and 0.7 percentage points respectively during the quarter.
Coinbase and Maple expanded their loan books by roughly 6% QoQ, while Nexo recorded modest growth of nearly 1%, making them the only major lenders to grow during Q1.
Loan books contracted across the rest of the sector, led by Galaxy Digital (-21%) and Ledn (-19%), while Tether's loan book declined 7%.
Written by CQ Research

Binance futures volume across tracked assets has risen to $28.74B (7D MA) as of June 29, up 18% from $24.35B a week prior — driven almost entirely by the top three assets. BTC alone accounts for $13.75B (47.9%), ETH $8.40B (29.2%), and SOL $2.20B (7.6%). Together, these three represent 84.7% of all tracked Binance futures volume, signaling capital is tightly anchored to high-conviction liquid names rather than broadly distributed.
The expansion is far from uniform. BTC volume surged roughly 40% week-over-week, SOL gained 24%, and ETH rose 13%. Conversely, ASTER volume collapsed 76%, WLD dropped 48%, HYPE fell 35%, and ZEC declined 26%. This dynamic — expanding majors, contracting mid-caps — is a textbook capital concentration phase where traders consolidate into deeper liquidity and shed lower-conviction exposure.
Binance futures dominance reinforces this reading. BTC holds at 90.71%, ETH sits at 94.50% near the upper bound of its two-year range, and SOL maintains 90.36%. Binance remains the primary price discovery venue for the most liquid assets. SUI dominance notably surged 4.12 points over 30 days to 85.41%, marking it as the clearest speculative rotation target gaining Binance traction.
On the altcoin flow side, 12 of 20 monitored assets register net outflows, led by FET, GRT, and AGLD. Only 8 are inflowing, with AXS and SNX leading. This net outflow bias, combined with volume concentrating in majors, confirms a risk-reduction phase beneath the surface — traders repositioning toward quality over speculative breadth, a pattern historically preceding decisive directional moves.
Written by Crazzyblockk

• Following the FTX collapse in Nov. 2022, Bitcoin Exchange Reserves closed below its previous higher low. Since then, it has remained in a downtrend up to June 2026.
Written by Facundo Fama

The $BTC UTXOs in Loss (%) reach the 60% level.
The increasing trend of this indicator means that investors who are in loss in ratio are increasing.
Investor losses are increasing to their maximum level. This is a signal that the market is very close to the bottom.
Investors are suffering their biggest losses in last 6 years. The market remains in a fear state.
However, paradoxically, the bottom has appeared amidst this situation. It is very close.
Written by CW8900

Exchange Inflow CDD remains at a very low level around 720. After the sharp spike seen in mid April and the smaller increase at the end of May, the metric has returned to its baseline. This suggests that long-term holders are not transferring their BTC to Binance. Since Binance is the largest liquidity hub in the market, I interpret this as a positive signal.
The current selling pressure is mainly coming from short-term investors. Transfers from small wallets have increased significantly. The latest **Spent Output Value Band** reading is around 9.80, one of the highest levels in recent months. This indicates that wallets holding 0–0.01 BTC are sending a substantial amount of Bitcoin to Binance.
Meanwhile, SOPR stands at approximately 0.98. The latest reading shows that coins spent on-chain are, on average, being sold at a loss.
Based on these on-chain metrics, selling pressure is likely to persist in the short term. At this stage, there are still no strong on-chain signals supporting a sustained bullish reversal.
Although the lack of selling activity from large investors reduces the risk of a sharp decline, the market is likely to remain under mild bearish pressure and continue trading with a negative sideways bias.
Written by PelinayPA

I’m seeing more and more indicators reaching extreme values, suggesting that the BTC market is entering a genuine devaluation phase.
UTXO analysis, represented here by a net supply ratio, reveals that we’re entering a phase where accumulation becomes relevant.
UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) are a mechanism specific to Bitcoin that ensures a BTC has only been spent once.
These UTXOs therefore contain information (price, dates, amount) that allows us to analyze what’s happening on-chain and deduce behaviors from it.
This ratio has now been negative for a week and just reached -0.075, corresponding to a buy signal.
The last time this happened was at the end of 2022, right at the end of the bear market.
This isn’t an indicator dedicated to detecting tops and bottoms; its purpose is to help position oneself relative to a global supply that could find itself with either large profits or larger losses.
Since it depends on the profit and loss of UTXOs, it can very well signal something during either a sharp drop or a sharp rise.
That said, in terms of cyclicality, it wouldn’t be inconsistent to think that the end of this bear market could be approaching.
This won’t stop BTC from going lower, but we now have several signals pointing to seller exhaustion. The next step is a renewal of demand, and that could take some time.
Written by Darkfost

Ethereum staking rate has shown a consistent long-term uptrend since the Merge upgrade. Now it has crossed 33% for the first time, indicating that an increasing percentage of the total ETH supply is being locked in staking. In contrast, the ETH price has experienced significant volatility, moving through multiple bull and bear market cycles. While price has fluctuated sharply, the staking rate has continued to climb steadily, suggesting that long-term investors remain committed to securing the Ethereum network regardless of short-term market conditions.
The latest data shows the staking rate reaching a new all-time high of around 33.06%, while ETH's market price has declined to approximately $1,500. This divergence is notable because staking participation continues to increase despite the recent price weakness. The data indicates that investors are choosing to lock their ETH rather than sell it, reducing the liquid supply available on exchanges. Such behavior reflects strong confidence in Ethereum's long-term fundamentals and suggests that many participants view the current price levels as temporary rather than a reason to exit their positions.
Looking ahead, the continued increase in the staking rate could become a bullish factor for Ethereum if demand begins to recover. A higher percentage of staked ETH reduces the circulating supply, which can amplify price movements when buying pressure returns. However, staking growth alone does not guarantee an immediate price recovery, as broader macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and institutional demand will continue to influence price action. If staking remains above 33% while accumulation continues, Ethereum may be building a stronger foundation for the next market cycle once selling pressure subsides.
Written by EgyHash