Here's an independent research report based on macroeconomic analysis up to June 2026.
2026 H2 - 2027 H1 US Stock Alpha Research Report
Macro Background: Structural Differentiation Under Stagflation Shadows
1. Economic Growth Slowdown: The US economy is approaching the tail end of a K-shaped recovery, with non-farm job growth slowing and consumer resilience weakening. The IMF's April World Economic Outlook has downgraded global growth expectations, shifting the macro tone from trading stagflation to pricing recession.
2. Monetary Policy Dilemma: The Fed is keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, caught between controlling inflation and stabilizing employment. Rate cut expectations are being continuously revised, with a prolonged high-rate environment indicating a fade in valuation-driven returns and a rise in profit-driven alpha.
3. AI Narrative Expansion: AI investment is evolving from hyperscaler compute infrastructure to enterprise-level deployment and application. Vanguard's 2026 outlook clearly states that the best investment opportunities will arise outside of hyperscalers, representing a structural direction for capital rotation.
4. Geopolitical Landscape Restructuring: Expansion of defense spending, investment in energy infrastructure, and supply chain de-risking form the three main lines of fiscal expenditure.
Conclusion: In a stagflation-like environment, finding beta is tough; alpha reigns supreme. Stock selection logic shifts from sector focus to profitability visibility + structural demand moats.
Target 1: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — The gold digger selling shovels in enterprise-level AI deployment
Market cap around $60 billion, core product AIP, FY2026E revenue around $3.5-3.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25-30%, with FCF profit margin around 25%+.
Alpha Sources:
1. The commercialization loop of AIP has been validated. The Boot Camp sales model converts POC into prototypes and then expands to full enterprise-level contracts within 5 days. The year-on-year growth rate of US commercial clients exceeds 40%, and average deal size has doubled.
2. AIP complements rather than replaces LLM. When enterprises need to integrate LLM with internal structured data, Palantir's Ontology layer is the only industrial-grade solution.
3. Direct beneficiary of the rising defense budget cycle. Irreplaceable in the US military's C4ISR, target recognition, and readiness management fields; projects like the Titan ground station provide revenue visibility for 3 to 5 years.
4. Structural demand under stagflation. Enterprises are compressing labor and accelerating AI replacement; AIP reduces the need for data engineering and decision analysis labor, actually speeding up procurement during economic downturns.
Core Risks: EV/S at about 16x has low tolerance; government clients account for over 50% and bidding cycles fluctuate; large shareholder reduction pressure.
Target 2: GE Vernova (GEV) — Core physical asset in the electrification supercycle
Market cap around $90 billion, core business in gas turbines, wind power, and grid electrification, FY2026E revenue around $34-36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8-12%, with EBITDA around $6.5-7 billion.
Alpha Sources:
1. AI data centers are igniting electrification investments. Each new data center requires a power load of 200MW to 1GW, and the US grid is severely aging. HA-class gas turbine orders have surged to historical highs, with delivery times pushed to 2029.
2. Gas turbines are core assets during the transition period. The 7HA/9HA sets the industry gold standard, and after-market services provide high-margin recurring revenue, accounting for over 40% of the power business.
3. Structural explosion in grid business. Under the IRA, Grid Solutions (transformers, digital grid management) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15-20% over the next three years.
4. Wind power business bottom reversal. Haliade-X orders in Europe and the US are accelerating, with a break-even expected in 2026.
5. High dividend capability. FCF yield around 4-5%, management commits to returning 50-70% to shareholders.
Core Risks: Commodity price fluctuations; wind power project cost overruns; uncertainties in energy policy.
Target 3: DexCom (DXCM) — The leap of CGM from diabetes to universal health
Market cap around $50 billion, core product G7 continuous glucose monitoring, FY2026E revenue around $5-5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18-22%, with FCF profit margin around 25%+.
Alpha Sources:
1. Multiplicative effect of TAM expansion. The traditional market is about 20 million Americans, and monitoring metabolic health for non-diabetic users will expand TAM from tens of billions to hundreds of billions. GLP-1 users need CGM to monitor glucose, forming a growth flywheel of GLP-1 plus CGM.
2. G7 competitive barriers. MARD precision of around 8.2% leads Abbott, with sensor life of 10 days, and FDA has expanded indications to non-diabetic patients.
3. Complementary ecosystem with GLP-1. Collaborating with digital health platforms and insurers to launch bundled GLP-1 plus CGM programs.
4. Strong defense against stagflation. CGM consumables revenue is rigid, and medical technology is one of the few sectors resistant to cycles.
5. Margin improvement. Unit cost of G7 is down 30% compared to G6, with gross margin expected to rise from 63% to 70%+.
Core Risks: Abbott's Libre 3 insurance coverage competition; uncertainty in reimbursement for non-diabetic indications; adjustments in Medicare/Medicaid coverage.
Horizontal Comparison of Three Targets
PLTR: Theme AI enterprise deployment, revenue growth rate around 28%, expected alpha 30-50%, high volatility
GEV: Theme electrification infrastructure, revenue growth rate around 10%, expected alpha 20-35%, medium volatility
DXCM: Theme metabolic health universalization, revenue growth rate around 20%, expected alpha 25-40%, medium volatility
Portfolio Strategy Recommendation
In a stagflation-like environment, use a barbell strategy. Allocate 60% to PLTR and DXCM for high-growth alpha; PLTR rides the AI enterprise deployment wave, while DXCM benefits from the GLP-1 plus CGM overlay effect. For defense, allocate 40% to GEV, combining physical assets, recurring revenue, and dividends to resist stagflation, with electrification demand from AI data centers providing extra beta and alpha.
Positioning Rhythm: Equal-weight, build positions in batches every 2 to 4 weeks to reduce timing risk.
Disclaimer: This report is for research reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
2026 H2 - 2027 H1 US Stock Alpha Research Report
Macro Background: Structural Differentiation Under Stagflation Shadows
1. Economic Growth Slowdown: The US economy is approaching the tail end of a K-shaped recovery, with non-farm job growth slowing and consumer resilience weakening. The IMF's April World Economic Outlook has downgraded global growth expectations, shifting the macro tone from trading stagflation to pricing recession.
2. Monetary Policy Dilemma: The Fed is keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, caught between controlling inflation and stabilizing employment. Rate cut expectations are being continuously revised, with a prolonged high-rate environment indicating a fade in valuation-driven returns and a rise in profit-driven alpha.
3. AI Narrative Expansion: AI investment is evolving from hyperscaler compute infrastructure to enterprise-level deployment and application. Vanguard's 2026 outlook clearly states that the best investment opportunities will arise outside of hyperscalers, representing a structural direction for capital rotation.
4. Geopolitical Landscape Restructuring: Expansion of defense spending, investment in energy infrastructure, and supply chain de-risking form the three main lines of fiscal expenditure.
Conclusion: In a stagflation-like environment, finding beta is tough; alpha reigns supreme. Stock selection logic shifts from sector focus to profitability visibility + structural demand moats.
Target 1: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — The gold digger selling shovels in enterprise-level AI deployment
Market cap around $60 billion, core product AIP, FY2026E revenue around $3.5-3.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25-30%, with FCF profit margin around 25%+.
Alpha Sources:
1. The commercialization loop of AIP has been validated. The Boot Camp sales model converts POC into prototypes and then expands to full enterprise-level contracts within 5 days. The year-on-year growth rate of US commercial clients exceeds 40%, and average deal size has doubled.
2. AIP complements rather than replaces LLM. When enterprises need to integrate LLM with internal structured data, Palantir's Ontology layer is the only industrial-grade solution.
3. Direct beneficiary of the rising defense budget cycle. Irreplaceable in the US military's C4ISR, target recognition, and readiness management fields; projects like the Titan ground station provide revenue visibility for 3 to 5 years.
4. Structural demand under stagflation. Enterprises are compressing labor and accelerating AI replacement; AIP reduces the need for data engineering and decision analysis labor, actually speeding up procurement during economic downturns.
Core Risks: EV/S at about 16x has low tolerance; government clients account for over 50% and bidding cycles fluctuate; large shareholder reduction pressure.
Target 2: GE Vernova (GEV) — Core physical asset in the electrification supercycle
Market cap around $90 billion, core business in gas turbines, wind power, and grid electrification, FY2026E revenue around $34-36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8-12%, with EBITDA around $6.5-7 billion.
Alpha Sources:
1. AI data centers are igniting electrification investments. Each new data center requires a power load of 200MW to 1GW, and the US grid is severely aging. HA-class gas turbine orders have surged to historical highs, with delivery times pushed to 2029.
2. Gas turbines are core assets during the transition period. The 7HA/9HA sets the industry gold standard, and after-market services provide high-margin recurring revenue, accounting for over 40% of the power business.
3. Structural explosion in grid business. Under the IRA, Grid Solutions (transformers, digital grid management) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15-20% over the next three years.
4. Wind power business bottom reversal. Haliade-X orders in Europe and the US are accelerating, with a break-even expected in 2026.
5. High dividend capability. FCF yield around 4-5%, management commits to returning 50-70% to shareholders.
Core Risks: Commodity price fluctuations; wind power project cost overruns; uncertainties in energy policy.
Target 3: DexCom (DXCM) — The leap of CGM from diabetes to universal health
Market cap around $50 billion, core product G7 continuous glucose monitoring, FY2026E revenue around $5-5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18-22%, with FCF profit margin around 25%+.
Alpha Sources:
1. Multiplicative effect of TAM expansion. The traditional market is about 20 million Americans, and monitoring metabolic health for non-diabetic users will expand TAM from tens of billions to hundreds of billions. GLP-1 users need CGM to monitor glucose, forming a growth flywheel of GLP-1 plus CGM.
2. G7 competitive barriers. MARD precision of around 8.2% leads Abbott, with sensor life of 10 days, and FDA has expanded indications to non-diabetic patients.
3. Complementary ecosystem with GLP-1. Collaborating with digital health platforms and insurers to launch bundled GLP-1 plus CGM programs.
4. Strong defense against stagflation. CGM consumables revenue is rigid, and medical technology is one of the few sectors resistant to cycles.
5. Margin improvement. Unit cost of G7 is down 30% compared to G6, with gross margin expected to rise from 63% to 70%+.
Core Risks: Abbott's Libre 3 insurance coverage competition; uncertainty in reimbursement for non-diabetic indications; adjustments in Medicare/Medicaid coverage.
Horizontal Comparison of Three Targets
PLTR: Theme AI enterprise deployment, revenue growth rate around 28%, expected alpha 30-50%, high volatility
GEV: Theme electrification infrastructure, revenue growth rate around 10%, expected alpha 20-35%, medium volatility
DXCM: Theme metabolic health universalization, revenue growth rate around 20%, expected alpha 25-40%, medium volatility
Portfolio Strategy Recommendation
In a stagflation-like environment, use a barbell strategy. Allocate 60% to PLTR and DXCM for high-growth alpha; PLTR rides the AI enterprise deployment wave, while DXCM benefits from the GLP-1 plus CGM overlay effect. For defense, allocate 40% to GEV, combining physical assets, recurring revenue, and dividends to resist stagflation, with electrification demand from AI data centers providing extra beta and alpha.
Positioning Rhythm: Equal-weight, build positions in batches every 2 to 4 weeks to reduce timing risk.
Disclaimer: This report is for research reference only and does not constitute investment advice.