Today's market is simple and complex at the same time.
Let's talk macro first—Trump backed down.
The planned airstrike on Iran was canceled, and they're talking about negotiating a deal, possibly signing over the weekend. This move has brought back some risk sentiment; Bitcoin shot up sharply yesterday, and today it dipped just 0.2% to 63,488, but overall it's holding steady.
Coinbase jumped 3.6%, MicroStrategy up 4.3%, even I almost thought the bull was back.
But don't celebrate too soon.
SpaceX is planning the largest IPO ever, pulling a huge chunk of institutional funds. Liquidity in the market is already tight, and with a giant like this soaking up capital, who's left to catch the bag?
Now, let's talk technicals, focusing on ETH.
Daily chart: Bears haven't left, they're just taking a breather.
Bollinger Bands are still opening downwards, price is being squeezed between the middle and lower bands.
EMA indicators are in a bearish alignment, with several layers of resistance above.
MACD is contracting below water, can't drop any further, but also can't rise.
KDJ has turned upwards, RSI hasn't entered overbought territory—can only say 'it's tired of dropping', not 'it's about to take off'.
In a nutshell: The daily chart hasn't flipped bullish yet, don't get too excited.
4-hour: Short-term consolidation, with resistance above and support below.
Bounced up from 1503, now hovering around 1675.
Bollinger Bands are flattening, price is above the middle band, looking decent.
But MACD volume hasn't caught up, KDJ is already at high levels, could pull back at any moment.
To put it bluntly: It can bounce, but not by much.
What's the strategy?
Shorts: Sell in the 1725-1685 range, stop loss at 30 points, targets aim for 1665-1635. Longs: Buy in the 1610-1650 range, stop loss at 30 points, targets aim for 1660-1700.
Right now, ETH is just in a range-bound consolidation, not going up or down. Don't chase the pump or dump; wait for the right position before acting.
Just my personal opinion, for reference only.