AriaNaka

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$BTC Bear market bottoms take weeks to form.

They usually consist of multiple repetitive sweeps of the lows, making longs psychologically difficult to hold or enter.

One simple sweep of 60K is unlikely to be the full bear market bottom. More likely, it was a local low before another leg lower and the real bottoming process begins. Multiple sweeps of the lows create fear, pushing market participants to expect lower prices while most of the highs remain untouched.

The bigger picture is becoming clear. We are approaching the timing where this type of bottoming structure historically begins to form. This is when accumulation starts, but it's unlikely this bear market bottom will look much different from previous cycles.

History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.

Bitfinex whales' $BTC long positions have started to decrease.

The trend is changing.

$BTC 3 Day Liquidation Heatmap

Weekend shorts completely wiped out now.

Expecting consolidation in this range, slight retracement then

Careful shorting, market is on fire since peace deal with Iran.

$BTC Monday.

Bulls need to hold 64K. If we hold 64K then we can easily test 67K & squeeze some more shorts.

On the other hand, unable to hold 64K an we go right back below 60K & this pump was just a scam wick to bait longs.

Observing London/NY today will be key in determining whether Monday marks a pivot high before downside, or if we see continuation for further upside.

Global M2 global liquidity keeps pushing higher.
$BTC doesn't.

That's the disconnect I'm watching right now.

The Global M2 Liquidity Index is sitting at new highs, yet Bitcoin is still trading well below its recent highs after the sharp correction we've seen over the past few weeks.

A lot of people look at Bitcoin in isolation.

I prefer looking at liquidity first.

Historically, when global liquidity expands, risk assets eventually respond.

That doesn't mean Bitcoin has to go up tomorrow.

It doesn't mean the bottom is in.

It simply means the macro backdrop is improving while Bitcoin hasn't fully reflected that yet.

Either Bitcoin starts catching up to liquidity, or this relationship is about to break down in a way we haven't seen for quite some time.

If $ETH breaks through the current level, there is no resistance for short positions up to $2000.

Retail Users Are Quietly Becoming Portfolio Managers

A few years ago, retail users usually made one big decision: buy an asset and wait. Today the process looks completely different. People compare strategies, think about risk exposure, separate capital into different buckets, and choose where each part of their portfolio should go.

That is why the modular direction of @Bedrock caught my attention. Delta-neutral strategies, credit markets, DeFi-native opportunities, and RWA exposure are not simply new products being added to an ecosystem. They create something much more interesting: the ability for ordinary users to think in allocations instead of single positions. The role of $BR also becomes more meaningful in that environment because access and participation are connected to a wider set of choices rather than one isolated activity.

This may be one of the quieter changes happening in crypto. The industry keeps talking about new technologies, while users themselves are slowly changing into something else entirely. Platforms that help retail participants manage different strategies in one place may end up shaping a new type of on-chain investor, and that possibility is one reason I keep following #Bedrock

$BTC Just like 60K came, new lows will come too.

Bottoms take weeks to form, not just one simple sweep.

I'll look to continue adding to my positions when it does.

The $BTC CVD indicator shows a quiet buying trend.

Whale buying is quietly increasing little by little.

A sell wall exists at 65k, and $BTC will soon reach that sell wall.

It is currently the only resistance.

The Best Crypto Products Usually Change Behavior Before They Change Numbers

Not every product creates an immediate spike in users or liquidity. Sometimes the first sign of impact is much smaller. People begin spending time differently, asking different questions, and paying attention to details they ignored before.

Following @Bedrock lately gave me that impression. Discussions around uniBTC, BRclaw, and the role of $BR seem to encourage a different type of engagement where understanding and access matter as much as outcomes.

Behavior changes quietly, then metrics follow later. That is why I think some of the more interesting developments around #Bedrock may not appear first on a dashboard. They may appear in the way users start interacting with the ecosystem itself.

$BTC This time wasn't different...

Building a bearish narrative into my 4–6th pivot has consistently formed a local low.

Price is now up almost 9% since.

Closed my long.

$BTC Going into the next week, I'm observing these two scenarios that are likely to play out:

The first scenario is where we reject from the Daily FVG / Weekly Bearish Continuation region between 64.7k-65.7k. This area is currently a major liquidity pool, and I expect it to be taken out.

If we manage to reclaim 65.7k, then a push towards 68.2k will come into play. That level is where we have the current Quarterly Open, and a rejection from there is quite likely considering we dumped aggressively at the start of the month.

Whenever we see an aggressive move on a Monthly Open, whether it's a pump or a dump, we usually see some form of pullback or accumulation around the middle of the month before continuing in the broader direction.

That's pretty much what I'm expecting to play out this month.

$BTC Based on every previous cycle, once the capitulation candle forms (the major cycle low), the sweep of that low has historically marked the bottom.

We've already seen that sweep. The capitulation low has been taken. The only thing that doesn't quite fit is the timing.

Historically, bear market bottoms have formed around Q4, not Q2. So the question becomes, do you trust the price action more, or the timing more?

At some point, one will break. We're only a few months away from the traditional timing window anyway, so it would be somewhat ironic if the market bottomed earlier than expected, just as it topped earlier than many anticipated.

The price action is already showing characteristics we've seen at previous cycle lows. The debate now is whether timing matters more than what the market is actually doing.

$BTC We are currently in extremely oversold territory.

Looking at past bear market bottoms, we mostly saw similar oversold levels to what we’re seeing at the moment.

Many people see this and call for the bottom, but fail to notice that Bitcoin can remain oversold for a long time.

While this is not a definitive sign that the bottom is in, it does tell us that we are in bottom territory and that the downside potential becomes increasingly limited.

$BTC continues to let the trending dots catch-up.

Trending dots are currently $67,220.

RSI buy signal but in bearish territory.

The Crypto Projects People Understand Instantly Are Not Always The Ones They Stay With

Some ideas in crypto make sense within seconds. You see the pitch, understand the value, and decide whether you like it or not. Then there is another category of projects that becomes clearer only after watching them evolve over time.

That is the impression I have had while following @Bedrock What stood out was not a single announcement, feature, or narrative. It was the accumulation of different pieces gradually connecting together. uniBTC, BRclaw, the expanding role of $BR and the broader direction behind #Bedrock make more sense when viewed as chapters of a longer story rather than isolated updates.

The reason I find that interesting is because durability often looks boring in real time. Many projects try to create one unforgettable moment. A much harder challenge is creating a sequence of developments that continues to make more sense months later than it did on day one. Looking back, that may be one of the more underrated signals worth paying attention to.

$BTC Hoping we get a wick upward soon.

Definitely the area to observe.

Large $BTC sell orders have emerged around the $64,000-$65,000 level.

Sellers are trying to stop any breakout here.

$BTC Update & Hyblock Heatmaps

Bitcoin bouncing a bit as expected, waiting for the reaction at 65.7k