I've been on the sidelines for two weeks now, telling myself every day to check back tomorrow.
Ladies, I'm really torturing myself here.
The day before yesterday, FOMC's Waller came out hawkish, and BTC tanked from 65700 to 62300. My first instinct was to buy the dip. I had my finger hovering over the buy button, but then pulled back.
Looking back today, BTC has slowly climbed back from 62300 to 63700, and ETH has risen from 1677 to 1726, gaining over 2% in two days. Do I regret it? A little. But I don't regret not being impulsive.
You guys see the data; liquidity indicators are all flashing Buy, and Binance's lending rates are giving buy signals as well. The USDC/USDT premium is also a Buy. But the altcoin bearish resistance index shows Caution. This indicates that big money is quietly returning, but it's not yet time to go all-in.
Today, BTC traded sideways in a narrow range between 63300 and 63900, with average volume. I've seen this kind of consolidation too many times; either wait for a confirmed breakout before chasing or wait for a pullback to support to jump in. Right now, it’s stuck right in the middle between 63000 and 64000, unable to break up or down.
My best friend asked me why I wasn't buying today, and I said the FOMC just dropped the market, and it's still digesting rate hike expectations. Jumping in now would be purely gambling. I'd rather miss out on a 10% gain than go through another roller coaster ride from 65000 to 62000.
The lesson is simple: the first rebound after a major drop is 90% an opportunity to run, not an opportunity to jump in. Wait for it to stabilize and for the direction to be clear before making a move.
$BTC $ETH #交易复盘 #FOMC #sitting on the sidelines