chaincatcher

#ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin is continuing to weaken this month: after stalling around the $83,000 level, it has started to correct and is now on track to close in the red, which the market is interpreting as a classic seasonal signal of 'Sell in May and go away.' Historical data shows that within a month after 'Red May,' Bitcoin's average return is about 10%, and over three months, it's roughly -3.3%; typically, weak momentum prevails in the short term. If we follow historical averages, the price could drop to the range of around $68,200. However, long-term indicators show a clear difference. Data indicates that the average growth in the six months following 'Red May' can reach around +139% (influenced by the extreme situation in 2013); even when excluding anomalous years, the average growth is about +12.9%, suggesting that the long-term trend isn't broken by seasonal signals. Analysis shows that 'Red May' within a bearish structure often proves to be more destructive — for instance, in 2018 and 2022, the average drop for the following month was 26%, and over six months. If BTC breaks the $76,000 level, it will reinforce the risk of transitioning into a bearish structure. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, nearly 46% above the key cyclical support level of about $60,000; the market as a whole remains in a phase of disagreement between bulls and bears.$BTC