🔥 Important
Analysis! Global Oil Situation 🏭
Since the start of January 2026, we've seen the world bracing for the expectations of global powers. Kicking off with the capture of Venezuela's head of state on January 3rd. The U.S. bombing of Iran on February 28, 2026. Not to mention the situations between Russia and Ukraine. But what has resonated the most in the world and the markets is the joint military intervention with Israel and the U.S. in Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Dragging everyone into a potential oil shortage crisis, due to the closure
#EstrechoDeOrmuz 👀 Now let's look at both sides of the situation:
🕳️ The Negative:
If the Strait of Hormuz is indefinitely closed and the military situation between Israel, the United States, and Iran escalates, the global energy market would face the biggest supply shock in modern history, far surpassing the crisis of 1973. With the passage of about 20 million barrels per day (20% of global consumption) permanently blocked, the global scenario would fracture as follows:
The price of Brent crude would shatter historical records instantly, jumping to a range of $150 to $180 per barrel in a matter of weeks.
The worst-case scenario would see the barrel at $200. This is because the capacity of alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only absorb a third of the lost flow.
🌟 The Positive
If geopolitical tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz operates normally, the price of crude oil will drop drastically. This is because this maritime passage is the most critical oil artery in the world, accounting for approximately 20% of global liquid oil consumption.
With the risk of blockage eliminated, financial markets react immediately according to the law of supply and demand.
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