franberlin

😮 Yesterday something happened that deserves more attention than it received.

The May CPI in the U.S. came in at 4.2% year-over-year. The highest figure in three years.

The expected reaction was panic in the markets. Massive sell-offs. Bitcoin drop $BTC

But that didn’t happen.

Bitcoin briefly surged to $62,000 and then stabilized around $61,400. Analysts were expecting worse.

Why? Because the core CPI — the one that excludes energy and food, providing the cleanest signal on structural inflation — came in at 0.2% month-over-month. Less than expected.

That matters. It means inflation is still high, yes, but the deeper, harder-to-control part is cooling off at the margins.

And then Trump said something that created more noise than the data itself:

“I love inflation.”

While oil surpassed $90 a barrel due to tensions with Iran. While consumers in the U.S. were paying $4.16 $USDT per gallon of gas. While the markets were processing everything at once.

In this context, Bitcoin showed something important: it’s no longer mechanically reacting to macro data. It’s picking up on the nuances.

That’s market maturity. Or the bottom is very close.

Which of the two readings do you think is more likely? $USDC

#bitcoin #inflación #Macro #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🔎 Bitcoin is trading today close to its production cost.

This isn’t just an opinion. It’s an on-chain fact.

The CEO of Capriole Investments released an analysis this week: the current price of $BTC is very close to the global average mining cost. Historically, this level has acted as a structural floor in the cycle.

Why? Because when the price dips below production costs, miners stop being profitable. The weaker ones power down their rigs. Network difficulty decreases. And equilibrium is restored.

It’s the most powerful self-regulating mechanism Bitcoin has. And it operates without central banks, regulators, or human intervention.

There are other on-chain metrics pointing in the same direction:

Whale wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have been quietly accumulating for three weeks. Not selling. Accumulating.

The percentage of BTC that hasn’t moved in over a year is at all-time highs. The so-called "illiquid supply." Capital that isn’t for sale.

The Fear & Greed Index today: 8. Extreme fear. Historically, readings below 10 have marked accumulation zones, not sell zones.

Headlines scream crisis. On-chain data tells a different story.

Which of the two do you hear more often?

#bitcoin #Onchain #mineria #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🚀 Today is the day.

SpaceX is debuting on the Nasdaq. Ticker: SPCX. Price: $135 per share. The largest IPO in history.

And there’s a story within the story that no one is telling in the headlines.

Elon Musk, founder and owner of 40% of SpaceX, can't sell a single share for a year.

But there’s a group of investors personally selected by SpaceX executives who can sell from day one. No lock-up. No restrictions. Right from the opening bell.

SpaceX reserved 5% of the offering for this special program. The participants were chosen at the discretion of the management team.

Morningstar has already published its analysis: the fair value of SpaceX is between $1.1 and $1.7 trillion. The exit valuation is $1.77 trillion. The high end already discounts years of perfect execution.

An Australian hedge fund has already announced it will short its position as soon as possible.

While retail investors are coming in through the front door at $135 $USDT per share, some of those who have been invested for ten years are looking for the exit.

This doesn’t mean that SpaceX is a bad company. It’s probably the most extraordinary of its generation.

But in the markets, the starting price and the real value are two different things.

Are you going to jump into SPCX today or do you prefer to wait?

#SpaceX #IPO #SPCX #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🔍 Today was a day packed with market info.

The May CPI dropped. The Fed has its response lined up for June 18. Bitcoin reacted.

Let me put into perspective what’s really happening in this cycle.

Eight months ago, back in October 2025, Bitcoin hit $126,073. Its all-time high.

Today, it's trading around $63,000. $USDT Exactly half.

In the last three Bitcoin cycles, 50% corrections from the ATH generally marked, on average, the smartest accumulation zone of the cycle. Not the exact bottom. The zone.

In 2018, $BTC dropped 84% from ATH. Those who bought at 50% of the ATH lost more before gaining a lot more.
In 2021, BTC fell 77% from ATH. Those who bought at 50% of the ATH saw 3x returns in the next cycle.
In 2022, the pattern repeated.

No cycle is identical. But they all share one thing in common: the most intense fear occurred exactly at levels where patient capital found its best opportunities.

Fear & Greed today: 10. Extreme fear.

I’m not telling you what to do. I’m giving you the context that the media doesn’t provide.

Which cycle do you think we’re in?

#bitcoin #BTC #EducacionCrypto #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🕗 This morning, at 14:30 Madrid time, we're getting the data that could flip the script for Bitcoin this week.

The CPI for May 2026. Inflation in the U.S. 🇺🇸

And there's a factor almost no one is connecting to Bitcoin's price: the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel and Iran have been on edge for weeks. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flows, has been at risk of closure. Oil prices reacted. Energy spiked. And energy is the main cost of mining Bitcoin.

BlackRock put it bluntly this week: the May CPI will be the first real read on how much that conflict is affecting consumer prices.

Market consensus expects a 4.2% year-over-year CPI. If the number comes in higher, the Fed has even less reason to cut rates. Higher rates for longer. Capital fleeing risk assets. More pressure on Bitcoin.

If the number surprises to the downside, the narrative could shift quickly.

$BTC is trading this morning around $63,000. In a holding pattern.

We’ll know in a few hours.

What are you expecting from today’s data?

#bitcoin #inflación #Fed #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

📊 Bitcoin ETFs have seen five consecutive weeks of net outflows.

$5.4 billion $USDT withdrawn. The longest streak of outflows since April 2025.

And yet, there's something that this number doesn’t account for.

Last week, amidst the largest outflows of the year, Strategy bought 1,550 $BTC , Bitmine picked up 126,971 $ETH , and Strive added 32 BTC to their treasury.

Institutions using ETFs are exiting. Institutions buying directly are entering.

These are two completely different types of institutional capital.

ETFs represent managed capital: funds responding to redemptions from their retail clients. When retail panics, managers sell. Not because they think the asset isn't worth it. But because their clients are asking for their money back.

Treasury companies like Strategy or Bitmine don’t have that problem. They buy when they want. And this week, they wanted to.

Which of the two groups has better insight into the real value of the asset?

The answer isn’t obvious. But the question definitely matters.

Which type of capital do you trust more to gauge market direction?

#bitcoin #etf #institucionales #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🛢️ Back in 2021, no one would have connected Middle Eastern geopolitics to the price of Bitcoin.

By 2026, it’s impossible not to.

Here’s the chain that few are seeing in full:

Israel and Iran escalate tensions → the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, is at risk → oil prices spike → electricity costs rise globally → mining Bitcoin gets pricier → miners start to sell more $BTC to cover expenses → increased selling pressure on the price.

And there’s more. High energy costs don’t just hit the miners. They impact overall inflation. And high inflation gives the Fed the perfect excuse to keep interest rates up. High rates drain capital from risk assets.

A missile over the Persian Gulf ends up affecting Bitcoin prices in Madrid, Mexico City, and Buenos Aires.

That didn’t exist ten years ago. Today, it’s the reality of the world’s most globalized asset.

BlackRock warned this week: if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for more than 30 days, U.S. oil inventories could drop to four-decade lows.

Bitcoin doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It never has.

Do you follow geopolitics when analyzing the crypto market?

#bitcoin #geopolitica #Energía #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

📊 What really went down this week in crypto.

Not what the headlines said. What the data shows.

What the market did:
$BTC dropped to $59,100 on Thursday. Today it's trading at $63,718. $ETH hit $1,505 on Sunday. Today it's at $1,665. $SOL fell to 2026 lows. Today it’s at $65.94.

What the institutions did while retail was panicking:
Strategy shorted 32 BTC last week. This week they bought 1,550. Bitmine scooped up 126,971 ETH in seven days. $214 million. Their biggest buy of the year.

What nobody saw coming:
Bybit launched tokenized access to SpaceX's IPO for global retail. The barriers to entry in traditional markets were torn down from the inside, using crypto infrastructure.

There’s a pattern in all this:

While the price was dropping and fear was rising, smart capital didn’t leave. It repositioned.

That doesn’t guarantee the market will pump tomorrow. But it says something about where those with more info and resources are putting their cash.

BTC opened 2026 at $92,500. Topped $126,073 in October 2025. Today it’s at $63,718.

The cycle isn't over. It's being tested.

Are you watching or participating?

#bitcoin #Ethereum #crypto #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🚀 For decades, getting into an IPO at the launch price was the most exclusive privilege of Wall Street.

You needed the right bank. The right contact. The right net worth.

That changed this week.

Starting today and until June 11, anyone in the world can subscribe to tokenized shares of SpaceX at the official IPO price. Directly from their crypto wallet. No brokerage account. No traditional middleman.

The minimum entry: $10 dollars. $USDT

No level requirements. No minimum net worth. No exclusive waiting list.

The infrastructure making this possible is what's called RWA: real-world assets tokenized on the blockchain. Each token is backed 1 to 1 by a real SpaceX share held by a regulated entity. They’re not derivatives. They’re not synthetics.

And there’s one detail that no traditional broker can offer: these tokens trade 24/7, including the weekend after the Nasdaq debut on June 12, which historically is the most volatile period of any IPO.

SpaceX received $150 billion in demand. Double the $75 billion they aim to raise.

What’s happening here is not just an IPO. It’s the first time crypto infrastructure is breaking into the traditional primary markets.

Not in 2030. Today.

Would you use crypto to get into the biggest IPO in history?

#SpaceX #tokenización #RWA #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🏦 Tom Lee has been telling the market for months that Ethereum is undervalued.

This week, he stopped talking. And started buying.

126,971 $ETH in a single week. $214 million. The largest weekly buy from Bitmine in all of 2026.

And he did this while ETH hit year-long lows. While ETFs were seeing outflows. While the retail crowd was panicking.

"The drop doesn't reflect Ethereum's fundamentals," said Lee.

Bitmine now holds 5,543,872 ETH. That's 4.59% of the entire circulating supply of Ethereum. Almost all of that position is staked, generating $230 million annually in yield.

One thing this move confirms: when institutions truly believe in an asset, they don’t wait for the price to rise to buy. They buy when everyone else is selling.

ETH today: $1,665. Bouncing back from Sunday’s low of $1,505.

The key level to watch: $1,964. If ETH regains this level with volume, the "bottom" narrative starts to gain traction. If it doesn’t, the next structural support is at $1,500.

Tom Lee bet $214 million that the bottom is near.

What are you betting?

#Ethereum #ETH #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🔄 Last week, Strategy shorted 32 Bitcoin and the market tanked.

This week, Strategy scooped up 1,550 $BTC

$101 million. At $65,332 $USDT per coin. The first buy since that sale that rocked the market.

And there's a detail that nobody is highlighting: this purchase was made $10,000 below Strategy's historical average price. For the first time since he started his accumulation strategy, Saylor reduced his average cost per Bitcoin.

It wasn't an accident. It was a calculated move.

Last week's narrative was: "Saylor sold, the model broke." This week's narrative is: "Saylor bought at the floor, the model continues."

Both narratives come from the same company. With a week in between.

This is what markets do all the time: they build stories around data. And then the data changes and the story changes.

BTC today: $63,718. Regaining ground.

The question isn't what Saylor did. The question is: how many of your decisions last week were based on a narrative that has already changed?

#bitcoin #strategy #BTC #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🔍 There’s a question I’ve been getting this week more than any other:

"Fran, is this the end of the cycle?"

My honest answer: I don’t know. Nobody knows.

But I can tell the difference between data and fear. And this week there’s been a lot of both mixed together.

The real data from this week:

$BTC dropped to $59,100 on Thursday. Today it's trading at $62,681, trying to bounce back. $ETH has a -67% drawdown from its ATH of August 2025. Companies that copied the BTC treasury model lost $62 billion in combined value. The Fed won’t lower rates in 2026 according to 68.8% of the market. The SpaceX IPO on June 12 — the largest in history — is grabbing attention and possibly capital.

The real fear this week:

Polymarket gives a 55% chance that Bitcoin drops below $55,000 before the year’s end. Technical analysts are talking about $40,000-$45,000 if the $59,000 support $USDT breaks definitively.

And yet.

Bitcoin opened 2026 at $92,500. Touched $126,073 on October 6, 2025. It’s built to survive exactly this: narratives collapsing, institutions rotating, retail panicking.

What changes in each cycle isn’t Bitcoin. It’s us.

The investor who understands the cycle isn’t looking for the exact bottom. They’re looking for context. And the context today says: extreme fear, adverse macro data, and a week with the largest IPO in history competing for the same capital.

That’s not the end. It’s the entry price for those who study while others panic.

Are you studying or panicking?

#bitcoin #season #crypto #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

💀 Since 2020, Michael Saylor has been repeating the same thing in every interview, every tweet, every conference:

"We never sell Bitcoin."

The market believed him. And he built an entire narrative on that promise.

Companies around the world copied the model. Nakamoto. Metaplanet. Twenty One Capital. Dozens of firms turned their treasuries into positions of $BTC betting that if Saylor never sold, the floor would always hold.

On June 5, 2026, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin.

Just 32. At an average price of $77,135. $USDT To pay dividends on preferred shares.

The 0.0038% of their total holdings.

And the market tanked.

An analyst named BitQuant had predicted exactly this moment back in January 2026: "Saylor buys between 2,000 and 20,000 Bitcoin a week and nobody cares. One day he’ll sell just 200 and the entire market will crash on that news."

He was wrong on the amount. He got everything else right.

What happened next was darker: the combined value of all the companies that copied Strategy's model dropped from $134 billion to $72 billion. Nakamoto did a reverse split of 1 for 40. Metaplanet is down -80% in twelve months. SoftBank liquidated its 26% in Twenty One Capital.

The model that seemed indestructible revealed its fragility in a single transaction.

The narrative is not the asset. The price is.

How many investment decisions did you make based on what Saylor said, not on what the data showed?

#bitcoin #strategy #MichaelSaylor #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🚀 On June 12, 2026, SpaceX is making its debut on the Nasdaq.

Ticker: SPCX. Valuation: $1.75 trillion. Estimated raise: $75 billion. The largest IPO in history.

Analysts suggest that this date partly explains why Bitcoin $BTC took a dip to $59,100 $USDT last week.

Today kicks off the official IPO roadshow. The countdown is real.

The logic is simple and brutal: when the most awaited IPO of the decade arrives, retail investors need liquidity. Where do they get it? From where they have profits… or where they can exit quickly.

Crypto is liquid 24/7.

What makes this IPO unique is that up to 30% of the shares are reserved for retail investors. Not for funds. For people like you and me, through Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab.

SpaceX, merged with Musk's xAI, is not just a space company. It's AI infrastructure. Starlink. Reusable rockets. And according to the S-1 filed with the SEC, Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion a month for access to its data centers.

The problem? The company recorded a net loss of $4.27 billion just in Q1 2026.

The hard data is contradictory. The hype is real.

And while the world decides whether to buy SPCX, Bitcoin is trading today at $62,681 — trying to regain ground after its worst week of the year.

Coincidence… or disguised capital rotation?

#SpaceX #bitcoin #IPO #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

📉 In August 2025, $ETH Ethereum hit $4,951. $USDT Its all-time high.

Today it's trading at ~$1,630.

That's a 67% drop from the peak. In less than ten months.

But there’s one detail hardly anyone mentions: during that same period, Ethereum whales bought over $2 billion in ETH. Silently. No announcements. No tweets.

Who’s selling while the whales are buying? The fearful retail traders.

The ETH market in June 2026 shows a strange fracture: all the technical data is bearish — price below all moving averages, decreasing highs and lows, ETF outflows of $401 million just in May — but the fundamentals of the protocol haven’t budged.

The total value locked in DeFi remains stable. Gas fees are consistent. Ethereum is still the leading smart contract platform in the world.

And a catalyst is approaching that few are watching: the Glamsterdam upgrade, scheduled for Q3 2026. If developers confirm a date, the market could pivot before it arrives.

There’s a technical level that analysts point to as the line in the sand: $1,964. If ETH closes below that price sustainably, the next structural support is at $1,545.

If it holds… the story could be very different.

Whales know something the price hasn’t reflected yet. Or they could be wrong.

Which of the two scenarios are you betting on?

#Ethereum #ETH #defi #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🔍 Let me be straight with you.

This week was brutal for the market. Bitcoin at $59,100. $ETH below $1,600. $ADA hitting 5-year lows. $SOL touching the floor of 2026. Over 350,000 traders liquidated in 24 hours.

The media calls it a crisis. Some call it the end of the cycle.

I call it: the price of education that many didn't want to buy during the good months.

There's a pattern that repeats in every crypto market correction, and it's almost poetic in its precision:

— When BTC brushed against $84,000 in May, everyone wanted to buy.
— When it hit $59,000 this week, everyone wanted to short.

The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 11. Extreme fear.

And here’s the uncomfortable fact: historically, readings below 15 on that index have marked some of the best long-term entry points of the cycle.

I’m not saying the bottom is already in. Nobody knows.

What I do know, from my perspective as a lawyer specialized in digital assets, is this:

People who study the market in times of fear are the ones making smart decisions when euphoria returns.

This week was expensive for those trading with leverage.

It was free for those watching and learning.

Which of the two groups are you in?

#bitcoin #crypto #EducaciónFinanciera #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

⚡ On Friday, June 5, 2026, a trader in Mexico City 🇲🇽 opened their app and saw something they hadn't expected to see in a long time: $BTC at $59,100.

This morning, as I write this, it's trading at $61,800. The bounce is real. But the story of how we got here is what matters.

It wasn't a sudden crash. It was the result of 13 consecutive days of something that had never happened before.

Bitcoin ETFs — those very vehicles that Wall Street celebrated as 'the legitimization of crypto' — had been bleeding capital for two weeks straight. Day after day. Non-stop.

$4,400,000,000 $USDT left Bitcoin spot ETFs in 13 consecutive sessions. The longest streak since these products launched in 2024.

BlackRock. Fidelity. Grayscale. All recorded massive redemptions.

And then something unexpected happened: Strategy — Michael Saylor's company, which has been buying Bitcoin compulsively since 2020 — sold BTC. Just 32 coins, sure. But they sold.

The market interpreted it as a signal.

Liquidations in futures reached $1.8 billion in a single day. Over 351,000 traders were wiped out in 24 hours.

What's really going on? Many analysts point to a rotation: institutional capital is flowing into AI stocks, where returns are visible and numbers are concrete.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, still relies on narrative, liquidity, and trust.

And in moments like this, the question that separates those who capitalize from those who panic is simple:

Do you see a crisis… or an opportunity?

#bitcoin #BTC #InstitutoBlockchain #crypto #FranBerlin

🏦 At some point in Q1 2026, Goldman Sachs made a quiet move.

They completely liquidated their position in the Solana ETF. $108 million $USDT zero.

There was no announcement. No drama. It just showed up in the regulatory filings weeks later.

And the market only processed it in June.

SOL was already trading weak when the news circulated. But what came next sunk it further: today, June 7, 2026, over 624,000 tokens $SOL are being unlocked and hitting the market. New supply. Scarce buyers.

The outcome was predictable.

Solana, which almost touched $295 in January 2025, fell below $62 in June 2026. A drop of over 78% from all-time highs.

Does that mean Solana is dead?

No. The Solana Summit is scheduled for June 16. The Alpenglow upgrade is coming in Q3. The network is still processing transactions.

But one thing this episode confirms: when the big players exit, they don’t give a heads-up. And when the regulatory filings expose them, it's too late to react.

Asymmetric information didn’t disappear with the ETFs. It just changed form.

Do you think SOL can recover to $100 before the end of 2026?

#solana #sol #etf #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

📱 On June 3, 2026, Charles Hoskinson dropped two words on X:

“I’m taking a break. TTYL”

And with that, $ADA tanked to $0.16 $USDT for the first time in over five years.

But the real story didn’t start there.

Weeks prior, the Cardano community voted against using funds from their own treasury to finance the Cardano Summit 2026 in Singapore. The project's flagship event: canceled by its own users.

Then TapTools — one of the most used analysis platforms in the ecosystem — announced its shutdown after four years building on Cardano.

It was then that Hoskinson recorded a video warning that “a wave of failures” was coming within the ecosystem. And the next day… he vanished from social media.

The market interpreted that silence worse than any statement.

As a lawyer specialized in digital assets, what catches my attention the most isn’t the price: it’s what this case reveals about the real limits of decentralized governance.

Cardano has been described for years as “the technically most solid blockchain.” Its fundamentals didn’t change in a week.

But the perception did.

Is the governance model the real problem for Cardano, or is it just the market punishing uncertainty?

#Cardano #ADA #blockchain #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin

🌐 In 12 days, the Fed is meeting for the first time under new leadership.

And what they decide could steer the crypto market for the remainder of 2026.

On June 17 and 18, Kevin Warsh will chair his first meeting as the new Federal Reserve president. He replaced Jerome Powell just weeks ago and has inherited one of the most challenging boards in decades.

Let me break down why this matters to you even if you don't have a single dollar in the American stock market.

The Fed controls the interest rates in the United States, and these rates dictate how much money flows globally. When rates rise, capital hides in bonds and dollars. Crypto takes a hit. When rates drop, capital seeks riskier assets. Crypto rallies.

So, what’s expected on June 18?

Futures markets assign a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Not just in June, but also in September. Some analysts don’t anticipate a cut until late 2027.

Why the delay?

Two words: Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict in Iran has shot oil prices up. High oil prices mean inflation, and the Fed can't lower rates with inflation without controlling it—that would be like throwing gasoline on the fire.

Warsh arrives with a reputation for “hard money” and strict monetary discipline, a reduced balance sheet, and no political concessions. Trump chose him expecting quick rate cuts, but the Fed members Warsh inherited not only resist cuts; some are even open to raising rates.

No one is saying it out loud.

For crypto, this has a direct reading: high rates for longer mean less global liquidity, more attractiveness of bonds over risk assets, and reduced institutional capital inflow to Bitcoin.

This isn't the scenario the market wants. But it's the scenario the data shows.

As a lawyer specializing in digital assets, I’ll tell you what I always say: trading without reading the macro context isn’t bravery. It’s trading with your eyes closed.

👇 Do you have June 18 marked on your calendar?

#Fed #bitcoin #InstitutoBlockchain #FranBerlin #Warsh