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this week were some of its most audacious attempts yet to redefine the boundaries of a confrontation that for decades has largely been fought through proxies, covert operations and carefully calibrated retaliation.
By targeting Israel in response to attacks in Lebanon, Tehran appeared to be signaling that its red lines no longer stop at its own borders – and that its leaders are ready to take greater risks.
Since the April 8 US-Iran ceasefire, Tehran has repeatedly accused Israel and the United States of eroding the truce through military action. The US has carried out strikes on Iranian targets even as indirect negotiations continued. Israel, meanwhile, has launched nearly 3,500 strikes in Lebanon, according to the country’s prime minister, including in the capital Beirut, despite restrictions
Iran responded with a series of calibrated retaliatory strikes against US and Gulf targets, while warning that if diplomacy failed it was prepared to resume the war and expand it beyond the Persian Gulf, potentially threatening shipping routes stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.
Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday there were renewed exchanges of fire between the US and Iran following the downing of a US Army helicopter earlier in the week, underscoring the ongoing precariousness across the region.
This week’s strikes on Israel, however, appeared to mark a further step. Tehran signaled that Israeli military action against its regional allies could also trigger a direct Iranian response. The objective was to break the diplomatic deadlock in talks to reach an interim peace agreement and support Hezbollah.
Baghaei, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, said Washington “bears responsibility” for Israel’s actions and warned that they would “inevitably” affect the diplomatic process. An Israeli military official, meanwhile, stressed that US forces played no role in the attacks on Iran, though they did assist in intercepting incoming Iranian missiles.
Iran may have succeeded in forcing Washington to make a choice between supporting Israel’s military freedom of action and preserving a diplomatic track with Tehran.
Trump’s pressure on Netanyahu has “added another chit to the pot” for Iran, said Miller, referring to Tehran’s new leverage. “Which will be the creation of a new norm.
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