What to observe in this month of September?
September starts with two opposing forces: the historically weak seasonality of $BTC in this month and a possible monetary shift that could give oxygen to risk if the Fed cuts rates. Historically, September has been the worst month for Bitcoin, with average negative returns between -3% and -6%.
On the macro side, after a weak employment report, the market discounts a high probability of a rate cut at the meeting on September 17; in Europe, the ECB would aim for a pause on September 11. This favors liquidity but does not eliminate the short-term seasonal weakness.