usmonetarypolicy

📉 The Fed is gearing up for a rate cut: labor market under pressure, Trump intensifies the squeeze

Tonight, September 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a meeting where a key rate cut of 25 basis points is expected — from 4.25–4.5% to 4.00–4.25%. This will mark the first move towards easing policy in the last nine months.

The reason? Weak employment data: in August, only 22,000 jobs were created, against a forecast of 75,000, while the unemployment rate hit 4.3% — a peak since October 2021. The pressure is compounded by President Donald Trump, who publicly criticizes the pace of cuts and threatens staffing changes at the Fed.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut stands at 84.6%. Analysts expect this meeting to be the start of an easing cycle, despite inflation above 2.9% and risks associated with tariff policies.

Markets are reacting cautiously: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting new highs, while Bitcoin is consolidating around $115,000. Investors are waiting for confirmation — will this be a one-off move or the beginning of a long-term reevaluation of monetary policy.

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