俊哥说趋势

In just a few hours, I brought fans profits of several points in ETH. This is not luck; it is the rhythm and judgment accumulated over many years of practical experience.
The crypto world is like this; opportunities often flash by. If you hesitate for a few seconds, others may have already completed their positions. If you miss out, it's like watching others make money. But if you follow the right people, you can avoid many detours, steer clear of countless traps, and steadily put profits in your pocket.
My trading style has always been clear: quick in and out, never getting attached to a position. Each trade has a clearly defined stop loss, keeping risk firmly under control. Profits are not made by gambling; they are accumulated bit by bit through rhythm and discipline. I do not pursue the myth of getting rich overnight; what I want is sustainable and controllable returns.
Many people feel anxious as soon as they enter the market, blindly chasing highs and frantically leveraging, resulting in outcomes that are often not ideal. Investment is not about luck; it is about cognition and execution. You don't need to watch the market every day, nor do you need to keep making mistakes yourself; professional matters should be left to professionals.
Finding me means finding a guide who understands trends and can accurately gauge the rhythm. No hasty calls, no bragging, just practical trading logic to help you seize every worthwhile opportunity. Don't get lost in the fluctuations, don't gamble in risks; join me, and with a calm strategy, achieve continuous growth for your account.
The crypto world has never lacked opportunities; what it lacks are people who can help you seize those opportunities. @俊哥说趋势
#ETH #币安区块链周 #ETH走势分析

In the crypto world for 8 years, from 5,000 to 25 million, let’s speak some truth. When I first entered the market, I couldn’t even distinguish mainstream altcoins, chased after meme coins, and had to endure the crash of LUNA, where tens of thousands shrank to hundreds. Later, I understood that to survive in this industry, I first had to get rid of the 'retail investor mentality'.
Now I’ll share a few pieces of experience gained through money spent, which both newbies and veterans can directly use.
First, capital management is crucial. Only use spare money for trading; if you have a deposit of 100,000, at most take out 20,000; if your monthly salary is 8,000, do not invest more than 800 monthly. Set a stop-loss line; if it breaks the 5-day line in the short term, get out, and if it breaks the 20-day line in the medium term, liquidate. Divide your positions into three parts: 30% in mainstream coins for the long term, 50% for trading, and 20% kept for averaging down. Invest in batches when it drops by 15%, 30%, or 50%, not all at once to avoid being trapped.
Second, always go with the trend, don’t fight it. Don’t catch falling knives; wait for clear signals of an uptrend before acting. It’s safer to catch pullbacks in a bullish market. Trading volume is key; a breakthrough in low positions is a real signal, while rising with low volume is often a trap.
Third, focus on a few technical indicators rather than many. I only look at three things: 15-minute candlesticks for buy/sell points, daily MACD for direction, and weekly Bollinger Bands for support. When all three align with increased volume, the success rate is highest.
For short-term trading, I rely on three habits for survival: only chase popular coins with volume, take profits at 15%, and cut losses at 5%. When monitoring the market, I look at 1-3 minute charts; go long when the average price line is upward and short when downward, and stay out during sideways movements.
In terms of tools, I use TradingView for charting, Jin10 data for policy insights, Glassnode to track whales, and TokenSniffer to avoid meme coins. Check these daily.
One last reality check: there is no holy grail in the crypto world. My survival relies on discipline, not luck. Staying alive is more important than making money; without enough understanding, any amount of money is just gambling.
#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察

Brothers, have you seen the information in the chart? Several mainstream Perp DEXs have their open contracts moving upwards, while TVL is dropping. What does this indicate? Experienced traders understand that the liquidity (total locked amount) in the pool is slowly flowing out, but those who remain, along with new entrants, are becoming more speculative and leveraging more heavily.

This is not simply a capital inflow bull market; it is a typical signal of rising risk appetite. The money in the market is becoming smarter and greedier, unwilling to simply stake for those small earnings, but instead choosing to increase stakes in contract pools to bet on larger volatility returns. For instance, Hyperliquid's open contracts have surged to 6.5 billion, indicating a strong flavor of the long-short game behind it.
My view is clear: the market's short-term volatility is very likely to amplify, but the critical moment for directional choice is also approaching. The decline in TVL is a hidden worry, indicating that some stable funds are leaving or observing, while the surge in contracts is like a boiler under increasing pressure; it will either explode into a strong one-sided market or result in a violent long-short liquidation to clear leverage.
Now, what should you do? I will address this in two layers. First, if you are an experienced trader with strong risk tolerance, now is the time to get your act together. Focus on the funding rates and large positions of the leading platforms like Hyperliquid, Lighter, and Aster. You can make small positions in the strong direction, but remember, your stop-loss order must be in place; in this situation, greed will bury you.
Second, if you are a novice or prefer a conservative style, listen to me: the best action right now is to do nothing. Don't get antsy watching others leverage up; the outflow of TVL is a yellow card warning from the market. What you should do is observe, waiting for the market to digest these restless contract positions with a clear trend before finding an opportunity to enter. Remember, a bull market is a source of profit, but survival relies on caution during bear markets.
The market is always changing, but the one thing that remains unchanged is that you must protect your principal. The bigger the waves, the clearer your mind should be. Let's encourage each other. @俊哥说趋势
#美国ADP数据超预期 #ETH走势分析

Brothers, this image contains a lot of information, have you all seen it? The total market value of the privacy coin sector has dropped from a peak of 22.5 billion to 16 billion, a nearly 30% shrinkage in one month, and XMR and ZEC have also retreated from recent highs. This is considered a significant cooling off in the circle.

In my opinion, this is very normal. The previous surge inflated expectations for privacy concepts too much, the market overheated, inevitably accompanied by profit-taking and adjustments. This is not a collapse of the fundamentals, but a self-correction of market sentiment. Remember, in the crypto world, there are no assets that only go up without going down, especially in such a volatile niche.
So, don’t panic. This adjustment has instead squeezed out a lot of bubbles, providing a more reasonable entry price. Privacy has always been one of the core narratives in the crypto world; the tighter the regulation, the more solid its long-term value logic becomes. But the key is, you need to have a strategy.
Next, my advice is, don’t rush to go all in. Use a staggered approach to gradually build a small position near the current price level, and if it continues to decline, gradually increase your position. Focus on observing the support levels around $350 for XMR and $400 for ZEC. Position management is crucial, don't fire all your bullets at once.
Remember, corrections in a bull market are gifts, opportunities for those with patience to get on board. Stay calm, strictly execute the plan, and we want to earn money from trends, not gamble on the ups and downs of the next second. Hold your core position and wait for the next round of narrative to ferment.
Follow Jun Ge for first news analysis @俊哥说趋势
#加密市场观察

First, let's get the unpleasant truth out of the way: making money in the cryptocurrency space can be fast, but losing it can be even faster; in one night, you can completely go to zero.

I have made money from contracts, and it has never been due to luck, but rather by strictly adhering to five rules. Contracts are a double-edged sword; if played well, you can turn 300U into 30000U, but if played poorly, no amount of capital can withstand a single night.
My method sounds aggressive, but I am well aware of what I am doing. I divide 300 capital into ten parts, taking only 30 each time at 100x leverage. If I bet correctly on one point, I double my money; if I bet wrong, I immediately cut my losses without hesitation. As long as you stick to these five rules, you can survive in the market and steadily earn money over time.
1. Cut losses quickly, don't hesitate. As soon as you hit the stop-loss point, get out; a mindset of hoping for a reversal will only lead to greater losses.
2. If you make five consecutive wrong bets, stop immediately. This indicates that your current state is off or the market is unclear; continuing is equivalent to giving away money, close the computer and come back tomorrow.
3. When you earn three thousand, at least withdraw half. Realizing profits is crucial; don't always think about making more, securing profits is more important than anything else.
4. Only engage in one-sided markets; remain cautious in volatile markets. Volatility can easily lead to whipsaw losses, so it’s better to patiently wait for a clear trend before taking action.
5. Never exceed 10% of your capital in position size; only use thirty dollars for each trade. The outcome of trying to become rich quickly often leads to liquidation; use thirty to test the waters, if you win, you double your money, if you lose, it won’t hurt, and gradually accumulating will allow you to build a larger snowball.
Remember, in the contract market, surviving is always more important than making quick money. Rules are discipline; if you stick to them, you will be the last winner. @俊哥说趋势
#特朗普家族币

Friends, the information in this picture makes me, an old investor, feel mixed emotions.

HYPE has fallen to a new low since May, at $27.7, down 9.1% in 24 hours. The key point is that 'whale', with 1.38 million HYPE long positions opened at 38.67, is now facing a floating loss of $15.3 million, with a liquidation line at 22.16. With a position of 38 million, it looks like it can't hold on much longer; this is a live market education lesson.
My view is very clear, this is not a simple correction. First, the price has broken below the key previous low support, and the technical aspect is weakening. Second, the fact that such a large position of the whale is deeply trapped is itself a 'time bomb'; once the price continues to drop close to the liquidation price of 22.16, it may trigger a chain sell-off, accelerating the decline. The market will not reverse just because someone is losing a lot; it is always right.
So, what to do next? I give you the most direct advice.
If you still hold HYPE, don’t fool yourself. Ask yourself about your risk tolerance; if you can't sleep at night, now is the time to cut losses and get out. It's not embarrassing; preserving your capital is always the first lesson. If you're stubborn and still want to watch, you must set your stop-loss order above the liquidation price of 22.16, for example in the $23-24 range, and if it breaks below, exit unconditionally.
If you are flat and want to catch the bottom, I advise you to stop. 'Catching falling knives' is the fastest way for beginners to lose money. In a downtrend, there is no reason to predict where the bottom is. If you really want to get in, wait for two signals: one is the price stabilizing at a key resistance level with increased volume (for example, $30), and the other is that the 'whale's' position crisis is clearly resolved (for example, it closes or adds to the position); otherwise, just watch and do nothing.
Surviving in the crypto world relies not on fantasies and luck but on discipline. Don't be misled by the stories of huge floating losses; that has nothing to do with you. Your task is to protect your chips. The bigger the storm, the tighter you should fasten your seatbelt. Waiting is also a strategy.
Stay vigilant, and see you next time. @俊哥说趋势

Now that I think about it, this memory also touches me! I thought it was just another ordinary day, but unexpectedly received a thank you from a fan. Looking back at the chat records, this friend started following me in early July. At that time, he was often losing money and even had a liquidation. It hasn't been easy to persist until now. This trust really moves me. I also want to thank Da Meng, your recognition makes me more determined—helping more people in this market is a meaningful thing.

Finally, I sincerely wish everyone to get better and better, and to move forward together. @俊哥说趋势
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #ETH走势分析 #加密ETF十月决战

Seeing this chart, Brother Jun calls it a professional insight; market sentiment is fully reflected in these few lines of data. Brother Jun will first state his opinion: this wave seems to indicate a net outflow of Bitcoin overall, but BlackRock's IBIT is bucking the trend and attracting funds, which is crucial. Large institutions haven't fled; they are even buying the dip, indicating that smart money is still positioning itself for Bitcoin's long-term value. There's no need to panic excessively about the short-term selling pressure from retail investors.

In contrast, Ethereum is experiencing a comprehensive net inflow of spot ETFs, with demand visibly strong. This confirms our long-held judgment that Ethereum, based on its ecosystem and application fundamentals, is gaining more independent recognition in the market and is no longer merely a shadow of Bitcoin.
So, what should we do next? Brothers, listen carefully. First, don't let the net outflow of Bitcoin scare you; instead, view it as a structural differentiation, focusing on those targets that have continuous institutional funding support. Second, the strength of Ethereum needs to be taken seriously; in asset allocation, you can appropriately increase its proportion, but remember, it's allocation, not an all-in strategy. Third, and most importantly, market fluctuations are the norm; don't get euphoric about inflows and despair over outflows. Use staggered positioning instead of going all in, leaving yourself enough ammunition and space.
In short, the current signal is divergence rather than a reversal. Maintain your mindset, closely follow the movements of large funds, and use discipline to overcome emotions so that we can truly reap abundant rewards in a bull market. @俊哥说趋势
#大饼近期走势

Looking at this BTC perpetual 4-hour chart, old friends, I'll get straight to the point: the market is conveying some key signals. After reaching a high near 92561.6, the price has currently pulled back and is consolidating, with the current candlestick struggling around 89500. The most noteworthy aspect is these two moving averages: the 7-period yellow line at 89910.3 and the 30-period blue line at 90620.1. The short-term moving average has already turned downwards and shows a tendency to cross below the long-term moving average, which is usually not a good sign, indicating a weakening bullish momentum and accumulating adjustment pressure.

Looking at the trading volume, the recent volume has not effectively expanded during the rebound; instead, it is relatively noticeable during the price pullback, which is a sign of weakness in upward momentum. Above the price, the area from 90449.9 to 90620.1 (MA30) constitutes the first strong resistance zone, while around 87688 below is the recent key support platform. Jun's view is very clear: after experiencing a wave of highs, the market is currently in a phase of bullish consolidation and bearish testing. Before there is a clear signal of a volume rebound, it is unwise to be blindly optimistic. Next, my fans should do this: First, for those with heavy positions, be sure to closely monitor the support level at 87688. If the price breaks below this level with increased volume, you should decisively reduce your position to control risk. For friends looking to enter the market, please be patient; now is definitely not the time to chase high prices. The ideal layout timing is to wait for the price to either break through strongly and stabilize above the 90620 moving average resistance with increased volume, or to see a clear contraction and stabilization near the 87688 support before a renewed upward breakout signal. Remember, before the direction is clear, observe more and act less; preserving capital is always the top priority. The market is never short of opportunities; what it lacks is patience and discipline.
#BTC #btc走勢 $BTC

Dear friends, I looked closely at the chart. The ETH 4-hour candlestick has a lot of information. Opened at 3038, closed at 3111, an increase of 2.4%, with an amplitude of nearly 3.7%, a typical strong fluctuation. The key lies in the moving averages: MA7 is 3032.78, MA30 is 3039.34, and the current price is firmly above both lines, with the short-term line showing signs of crossing above the long-term line, which is a standard early signal of a bullish arrangement, indicating that the trend structure is healthy. The trading volume also matches, at 638,000, which is an increase compared to the 5-day average volume, indicating that capital is following in.

But seasoned traders understand that there is no market that only goes up without going down. The area around 3135 is clearly a short-term high point; the price touched it briefly before coming down, leaving an upper shadow, indicating selling pressure at this level. The risk of chasing high in the short term is significant, as entering here can easily lead to buying in the middle of a short-term rise.

Brother Jun's view is very clear: the trend is bullish, but operations need to emphasize rhythm. This wave has pulled up from 3020, and it hasn't experienced a proper pullback yet; rushing in directly is not cost-effective in terms of risk-reward ratio. Next, I judge that it is highly probable that it will retest to confirm support. The strong support zone is around 3050-3080, which is the previous platform and also near the MA7 moving average. A prudent approach is to patiently wait for the price to return to this range before considering a phased light position, and the stop-loss can be set below 3020. If aggressive brothers insist on acting now, they must do so with a small position and tighten the stop-loss, such as placing it below 3090, and they must acknowledge if they make a mistake.
In short, during a bull market, there are often long shadows; when the trend is there, there is no need to panic. However, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so be sure to use money you can afford to lose and set proper stop-losses as a lifeline. Waiting for a better price is often more reassuring than chasing highs.
Follow Brother Jun to guide you towards a bright future @俊哥说趋势

The plot is exactly the same as in 2021, and it's about to play out again.

The bull market trap is crazily gathering strength.
Next, BTC is likely to dive straight to $40,000.
If you don't believe it, let's wait and see.

Looking at this four-hour chart, my first feeling is that the bulls and bears have reached a point of contention, and the market is filled with hesitation and probing.

This latest bearish candle closed at 90414, breaking below the 7-period moving average, but still barely hanging above the 30-period moving average (90386.8). This indicates a weakening short-term trend, but medium-term support is very close. The price has dropped from a high of 92455 and found buying interest at 89863, forming a lower shadow, indicating there is capital waiting to enter below. However, regarding the strength of the rebound, looking at the trading volume, a single volume of 55,291, compared to the 5-day and 10-day average volume lines, indicates a volume increase during the decline, which is not a good signal, indicating that selling pressure is indeed present.
My view is clear: now is not the time to charge forward. The 30-day moving average is the current dividing line between bulls and bears. If the price can stabilize above this line and rebound, the consolidation pattern can continue, with upward pressure near the previous high of 92455. However, a more likely scenario is that there will be intense competition here, and once the 30-day line is effectively broken, the next important psychological support level will be in the 88000-89000 range.
Having been in the crypto space for eight years, I've seen this kind of trend too many times; it feels like the oppressive heat before a storm. All technical indicators are waiting for a directional breakout. Until a clear signal emerges, the best operation is to hold back. If holding a position, make sure to set a stop-loss, for example, just below 89500. If not holding a position, then patiently watch the show, waiting for the market to choose its direction; we are merely followers of the trend, not gamblers trying to catch the bottom. Remember, as long as you are alive, you can see the next bull market. @俊哥说趋势
#4时 #BTC走势分析

Opportunities slip away in the blink of an eye; missing out means letting others profit.

But with the right people, the direction is correct, the detours are fewer, and making money is more stable.
My trading principles are just three points: quick entry and exit, strict risk control, and maximizing profits.
Come to me; do not blindly chase highs or misuse leverage.
With my professional judgment, I'll help you seize every opportunity. @俊哥说趋势

Seeing this news flash instantly pulled my memory back to the past. It's been eight years, and I'm too familiar with this kind of script, from skyrocketing myths to rapid crashes, almost like it's been carved from the same mold. DOYR can drop 80% from its peak in one day, with a market value evaporating by over 20 million; this isn't volatility, it's simply "jumping off a cliff," once again confirming the essence of most Meme coins: a purely emotional and liquidity game.

That KOL's floating profit shrank from 300,000 to 50,000, and still holding without selling, I can't comment on that operation. In this circle, profits that haven't entered the wallet are just numbers, especially with Meme coins; a single pullback can make paper wealth vanish into thin air. He is betting on the next peak, but more people have become "bag holders" after the peak. The biggest support for such coins may just be community consensus, or rather, FOMO sentiment, which comes quickly and leaves even faster; once the heat shifts, the outcome is predictable.
To be practical, the reason I've been able to reap significant rewards in this market boils down to one core principle: knowing what money I'm making. For Meme coins like this, which have no practical use cases and rely entirely on narrative and hype, I only participate with a very small portion of entirely disposable funds, treating it like a lottery ticket, and I never get attached to battles. More energy is still focused on projects with solid underlying logic.
Newbies seeing this kind of news flash are easily attracted by exaggerated percentage increases, but veterans see "a drop of 81%" and the final "risk warning" at first glance. In this market, surviving is more important than anything else. Remember, when you are overwhelmed by the increase, look at this KOL's unrealized floating profit of 300,000, and then look at the remaining 50,000; this is the most vivid lesson in risk education. It's fine to watch the excitement, but keep your wallet tight, and don't let someone else's story become your own accident.
@俊哥说趋势
#MEME #BSC

Who would have thought that back in the day, a small investor with a capital of twenty thousand, living on steamed buns while watching the market, could really rely on a method that was laughed at as 'too foolish' to survive for eight years in the cryptocurrency world and save enough to lie flat? No talent, no insider information, no gambling on luck, just sticking to one logic. My method is simple and practical, suitable for all stages.

1. Capital management is the starting point
Never split into five parts, only use one part each time, with a single loss not exceeding 10%, and total capital loss controlled within 2%. Even if you are wrong five times in a row, you only lose 10%, but catching one trend can cover everything. Stability is the foundation of compound interest.
2. Follow the trend, don’t go against the current
Do not blindly catch the bottom during a decline, as it is often a trap. When the market starts to move, don’t rush to sell, as it is often a golden opportunity. Patience is the greatest weapon in trend trading.
3. Stay away from short-term surging coins
Sudden surges are often traps. Whether mainstream or altcoins, the probability of making money when the price increase is outrageous is much lower than taking over. If you can avoid envy, you have already won half the battle.
4. Use indicators but do not be superstitious
Consider buying when the MACD crosses above zero, and reduce your position when it crosses below zero. Do not average down on losses, only add to winning positions. This is the most effective way to control emotions.
5. Trading volume is the market's heartbeat
Low-level breakout with high volume is often a trend signal. Look for the 3-day, 30-day, 84-day, and 120-day moving averages turning upwards before following in. Don’t follow the crowd; only trade in coins with clear trends.
6. Reviewing trades determines mastery
Review every trade: what was the buying logic, where was the mistake, has the weekly trend changed? Masters do not rely on predictions to make money, but grow through reviewing.
The method may seem ordinary, but very few execute it to the end. The market will eventually reward those who maintain discipline amidst restlessness and hold their rhythm amidst the noise.
If you still don’t know what to do, follow Jun Ge. As long as you take the initiative, I will always be here!!! @俊哥说趋势

Seeing this picture, two words come to mind: familiar. It has been eight years, and the script of meme coins remains the same, just the packaging has changed.

A few key points that seasoned players understand. First, the hype follows the market trend. When mainstream coins rebound, meme coins become 'actively traded', which essentially means that the liquidity is flowing out to the most volatile and narratively appealing areas. This is not an independent market; it is a typical signal of 'risk appetite' warming up.
Secondly, behind the data lies a brutal zero-sum game. Franklin's market value broke 13 million in six days, and DOYR surged to 20 million in a single day before quickly falling back to 6.63 million. This rollercoaster market is purely a result of emotional and capital games, unrelated to value. PIPPIN being pointed out for 'abnormally strong bullish control' is an explicit reminder: the chips are highly concentrated, and the wild fluctuations are just a thought away for the main players. The excitement belongs to them; the risk is yours.
As a seasoned player, Jun's analysis is straightforward: it can be observed, but one must stay clear-headed. This hype is an excellent window for observing market sentiment; it can tell you where the market's greed index stands. But participation? That is a completely different dimension. For the vast majority, this feels more like 'the story of others making money' rather than 'an opportunity that one can grasp.' Short-term trading volume and market value, in meme coins lacking fundamental support, are the most dangerous bait.
In summary, when the market warms up, meme coins are always the first to stir; this pattern hasn't changed. But the discipline of seasoned players is: do not treat emotions as trends, do not treat fluctuations as wealth. Do your own research, maintain your positions, watch the tides rise and fall, but do not easily jump into every wave. True gains come from traversing cycles, not chasing hotspots.

Why is virtual currency banned in China?
The core reason lies in its fundamental impact on the existing financial system, especially in terms of capital flow and tax regulation, which has almost 'disruptive' potential.

Imagine this: if one sells property in a first-tier city and cashes out 5 million, wishing to convert it to USD to transfer abroad, traditional financial channels have been strictly restricted. Banks have a limit of $50,000 each for currency purchases and remittances per year, and the entire process can take as long as 14 years. If one attempts to borrow someone else's limit or carry cash out of the country, there are clear restrictions and regulatory scrutiny on the amount. Directly transferring RMB abroad is basically impossible. All legal pathways are almost completely blocked.
The emergence of cryptocurrency has completely changed this game. Without limits, it can perfectly circumvent all controls. Even if referring to foreign exchange limits, it only requires a few people’s assistance to store a huge amount of assets on a USB drive, easily carried out of the country. The anonymity and decentralization of transactions make it similar to precious metals in the digital age, but far more portable than physical gold and silver, almost possessing the convenience of electronic payments.
This leads to two major uncontrollable risks: first, capital can flow freely across borders, making foreign exchange controls virtually ineffective. Second, all transactions can escape regulatory networks, and tax systems like the Golden Tax Phase IV will find it difficult to track capital flows, losing their ability to collect taxes. When a financial tool can bypass both foreign exchange and tax regulations, its legality is naturally difficult to accept.
Therefore, the ban is not merely based on technological prejudice, but on the fundamental maintenance of monetary sovereignty, financial stability, and national fiscal security. Before an effective regulatory framework is established, allowing cryptocurrency is tantamount to permitting a dual loss of capital and tax revenues. @俊哥说趋势
#中美贸易战新进展 #虚拟币

Looking at this 4-hour chart, old buddy, it feels quite specific. This is not the daily chart's kind of slow grind; the 4-hour chart is all about rhythm.

Current price is 3071, steadily above MA7's 2999 and MA30's 2953, with a short-term bullish arrangement being solid. The key is to watch the previous high of 3113.68; breaking through here would open up the path to test the previous high of 3239; otherwise, it’s just range-bound fluctuations. Strong support below is seen in the MA30's 2950 area, which is the lifeline in the short term.
Let’s talk about volume, as this is the soul of the 4-hour chart. You see the recent volume bar, 477,000, compared to the two average volume lines below, with the 5-period average at 694,000 and the 10-period at 763,000, showing a significant gap. This is a typical volume contraction rebound, indicating weak willingness to chase higher prices; bulls are probing, but not exerting force. This kind of movement is either preparing for a breakout or is a false strong move that will drop upon hitting resistance.
My trading thought process is quite simple. I mix in the circle, don’t guess the direction, just look for signals. Right now, the price is hovering around 3100, close to resistance. I will wait for two signals: either a volume breakout above 3113 that holds, which would be a signal to add positions, or a drop below MA7 with weak retracement, which would require considering reducing positions for risk management, and then reassessing around 2950 for support.
In short, the 4-hour chart shows the rhythm, and right now we are hovering before a crucial position. Don’t get ahead of yourself; waiting for the market to choose a direction is ten times more reliable than your random analysis. Remember, opportunities come from waiting, not chasing. @俊哥说趋势

Looking at this BTC 1-hour chart, my first feeling as an old trader is that it's a boring fluctuation, the calm before the big show. The price is compressed within a very narrow range, with short upper and lower shadows, a typical 'dead time'. I've seen this pattern too many times in my eight years; it often indicates both bulls and bears are gathering strength, waiting for a directional breakout.

Specifically, the current price is stuck between MA7 and MA30, unable to go up or down. The yellow MA30 is around 89812, acting like a ceiling; several attempts to break through have not been effective, indicating significant short-term pressure. The support from MA7 below is also not very solid, with trading volume clearly shrinking and market participation very low. At this time, predicting the next second's rise or fall is no different from flipping a coin; any technical indicators will temporarily fail.
My view is clear: don't operate frequently in a fluctuating range. This narrow fluctuation may seem to have small profits, but after deducting friction costs, the actual returns are limited, and it's easy to be stopped out by a sudden one-sided breakout. Experienced traders die from trying to catch the bottom and top, while new traders die from chasing rises and falls, and in this kind of market, both experienced and new traders die together from impatience.
So, my strategy can be summed up in one word: wait. Either wait for the price to strongly rise above MA30 with volume and stabilize, at which point one can consider going long. Or wait for it to break down through the lower dense trading area on increasing volume, then look for short opportunities. Before the signals are clear, preserving capital, sipping tea, and watching the play is the core principle for surviving and reaping rewards in the cycle of bulls and bears. The market never lacks opportunities; it lacks patience. @俊哥说趋势
#BTC、 #BTC☀️ #btc走勢

How to play with leverage? I spent eight years of my youth and two million in tuition to tell you.

In 2017, I used 100,000 to open 20x leverage to go long on Ethereum, turning it into 1,000,000 in a week. At that time, I thought Buffett was nothing special. During the bull market in 2021, when Bitcoin was at 60,000, I used 5,000,000 to continue to increase my position, dreaming of reaching 10 million, but encountered that famous needle, and my account went to zero in 15 minutes. My hands were trembling so much that I couldn't even light a cigarette.
Over the past ten years, I have seen too many people treat leverage as a money printing machine, and they all ended up as cash dispensers. These iron rules are what I exchanged for real money.
First, only use money you can afford to lose. Using living expenses or mortgage money to leverage is not gambling; it’s foolishness. I now only use 5% of my total funds to play with high leverage; if I blow up, I treat it like a lottery ticket.
Second, the leverage multiple should be inversely proportional to your confidence. The more you believe it will rise, the lower the multiple should be; 3 to 5 times is sufficient. When in doubt, wanting to gamble at 20 times is a sickness that needs treatment. My discipline is that spot trading is primary, and leverage never exceeds 10 times.
Third, stop-loss orders must be placed in advance; don’t rely on memory. The time I blew up, I thought I would wait a bit longer, but the system won’t wait for you. Now I place a stop-loss order simultaneously when opening a position; if losses exceed 20%, I cut it directly.
Fourth, don’t open new positions during sharp rises and falls. The FOMO sentiment is strongest when the scythe is moving the fastest. Wait for the market to cool down for a day before acting; opportunities are always there, but capital is not.
After eight years of trading cryptocurrencies, leverage is not a tool for making money; it is a tool for making you see how greedy you are. I have seen people become rich through leverage, but I have never seen anyone maintain long-term wealth with leverage. What truly changed my life is the Bitcoin spot I hoarded in 2019, which has multiplied dozens of times since then. The money made through leverage will eventually be returned.
If you haven’t touched leverage yet, I envy you. If you’re already in the game, please remember that surviving in the crypto world is more important than anything else. I used to stumble around in the dark, but now the light is in my hands. The light is always on; will you follow? @俊哥说趋势